12/08/2026
Famous words of Claudeā¦
āØāIf Iām optimising purely for expected ROI and I can stomach volatility: Bitcoin. On a pure historical-returns basis nothing else in your three is close ā its 10-year CAGR has dwarfed both property and Tesla, even accounting for the brutal drawdowns. The catch is the honest part: that history is the argument for it and against it simultaneously. Past returns were partly a one-time repricing from āinternet curiosityā to āinstitutional asset,ā and that re-rating canāt repeat from the same base. Forward 5ā10 year returns almost certainly wonāt match the last decadeās, and you have to accept the very real chance of a 70ā80% drawdown along the way. High expected return, enormous variance.
If I want the best risk-adjusted return - the property, because of leverage. This is the one that changes the maths and itās genuinely the strongest pick, not just the on-brand one. Your $100k controls a $700k asset. If Australian property does its long-run ~5ā6% annual capital growth, youāre earning that return on $700k, not on your $100k ā so a modest 6% asset move is a ~40%+ return on your actual cash in year one, before rent. No other asset here lets a normal person borrow at 85% to buy it. Tesla and Bitcoin youāre returns-on-$100k; property youāre returns-on-$700k. Lower headline growth rate, but leverage does the heavy lifting. The trade-offs are illiquidity, transaction costs, and that leverage cuts both ways in a downturn.
My actual pick, forced to choose one: the property, on a risk-adjusted basis ā the leverage is the genuine edge and itās the only one where a 6% move on the asset becomes a ~40% return on my money. If I had a small side allocation I couldnāt lose and a strong stomach, Iād want some Bitcoin for the asymmetric upside ā but as the single $100k home for the money, leverage wins.
Two honest caveats on the ādataā: Bitcoinās history is short and regime-dependent, and propertyās leverage advantage assumes you can service the loan and that rates behave ā leverage is exactly what hurts when it goes wrong. But you asked me to commit, so: property, for the leverage.
