AgVantage Commodities Pty Ltd

28/08/2026

Active Offers and Recent Trades

28/08/2026

Russia and Ukraine - Black Sea tensions light a fire under wheat whilst US and China weather support cotton!

Wheat has jumped to three-year highs on Black Sea tensions, cotton is closing in on a four year high, and the Aussie dollar is climbing on the back of a hawkish Reserve Bank. Here is what is driving global grain and cotton markets this week, and what it could mean for your marketing plan.

Black Sea tensions light a fire under wheat
Wheat futures in Chicago pushed to fresh three-year highs this week after reports that Russia is preparing to intensify its war with Ukraine, including strikes on port and rail infrastructure, after concluding that peace talks have reached a dead end. Chicago December wheat gained more than 45 cents in a single session on the news, before adding further ground to close at 760'6 cents a bushel by Thursday, up around 12 cents on the day.

It matters because Russia and Ukraine together handle more than a quarter of the wheat that moves around the world each year. When their ports are threatened, buyers in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia must look elsewhere, often paying more for supply from Australia, Argentina, or the US. That demand switch is exactly what is showing up in local values, with WA's Kwinana zone seeing CAN1 and CAG1 wheat trade at $870 a tonne, a 12-month high, and ASX wheat futures for September closing at $356 a tonne, up $6 on the day, and January 2027 trading up to $375, then settling at $370.

The balanced view: if the conflict escalates further or Black Sea shipments are disrupted for an extended period, this rally has room to run further, since the world simply cannot replace that much wheat overnight. On the other hand, wars can also end unexpectedly, and any credible move toward a ceasefire or a negotiated shipping corridor could see a good chunk of this risk premium come out of the price just as quickly as it went in.

What it could mean for you: for growers still holding old crop or new crop wheat, multiyear high prices do not come along often. It is worth reviewing your cost of production and your risk appetite now, rather than waiting to see how the war news unfolds. A staged approach, selling a portion now to lock in today's attractive levels while leaving some tonnage open in case the rally continues, is a reasonable way to participate in the upside without betting the whole crop on the war continuing to escalate. Keep in mind, this rally is on the back of supply constraints, not fundamental reduction is supply – the grain sits in inventory but can’t get out to the market (at the moment). For Australian growers in areas of dryer conditions, its natural to be pessimistic when looking out your own window. But don’t be fooled that your local area controls the market.

We have mentioned many times in previous reports, that the SQLD, and NNSW domestic market is comfortable with supply, and will purchase grain from CNSW and SNSW when new crop becomes available. The main points to keep an eye on here, are;
The domestic market must pay additional freight costs in kilometres to haul grain from further south.

Freight costs have rise due to increased cost of fuel.
Global prices are rising forcing export prices higher out if SA, VIC and Port Kembla.

As export prices increase and pull grain towards the export ports, the domestic market in the north has to rise to be able to compete and drag grain by road north (keep in mind the km and fuel costs above).

Therefore, as long as global price rise, the domestic market has to rise to the extent is can attract grain.

Corn and soybeans, tight supply meets extra demand
US corn futures touched a fresh three year high this week before easing slightly, with the nearby September contract settling at 510'2 cents a bushel, down around 4 cents on the day after a very strong run. Soybeans have also held firm, with September futures at 1256'4 cents a bushel, supported by additional Chinese buying of new season US soybeans.

The story underneath both markets is remarkably similar. Extreme heat and heavy rain have hit China's own corn, soybean and cotton growing regions since the middle of July, raising the risk that China's harvest disappoints and that the country needs to import more from the rest of the world to cover the shortfall. At the same time, global feed grain supplies, the corn and other grains used to feed livestock, remain historically tight, which is part of why prices have been able to climb so far, so fast.

The balanced view: if China's crop damage turns out to be worse than currently expected, extra import demand could keep a floor under both corn and soybean prices for months to come. But there is a genuine bearish counterweight too, the US Northern Plains wheat harvest is running ahead of schedule with good quality, a reminder that a bumper harvest anywhere in the world can quickly cool a rally that has been built on tight supply expectations.

What it could mean for you: for canola and pulse growers watching the broader grains complex for cues, this is a market where the fundamentals genuinely support current price levels, but where a lot of the good news may already be priced in. It is a sensible time to keep your production estimates up to date as the season progresses, so you know exactly how much tonnage you have to sell into whatever the market does next.

We remain bullish ag commodities, but as always, risk management should be at the forefront of any marketing plan. As growers, you only produce the crop once i.e. you don’t have the liberty of buying and selling, so you need to ensure you are locking in profit, not speculating on picking the highs!

Cotton closing in on a four year high
December ICE cotton futures rose 327 points to 92.41 cents a pound this week, within reach of a four year high, driven by scorching, dry weather across the southern US cotton belt and strong buying from speculative funds.

The balanced view: dry, hot weather in a major growing region genuinely threatens yield, and that is a legitimate reason for cotton to be higher. But a rally this fast, driven heavily by speculators rather than physical buyers, can also unwind quickly if rain arrives in the US or if funds decide to take profits. Cotton growers have seen this pattern before, sharp rallies on weather scares that partly reverse once the crop outlook becomes clearer.

What it could mean for you: with cotton near multi year highs, this is a good opportunity to review your marketing plan and consider showing your cotton to more than one buyer. Competition between buyers remains one of the most reliable ways to capture the best possible price, particularly in a fast moving market like this one. As futures rise, we are seeing a weakening basis here in Australia – hence why you are not seeing a like for like increase in AUD/bale.

A firmer Aussie dollar cuts both ways
The Australian dollar has firmed to be trading just under 0.72 US cents, its strongest level in around three months, up roughly 3 US cents since the start of July. The move is being driven by a softer US dollar, firmer commodity prices, and growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to raise interest rates again, most likely in November, after a run of stronger than expected inflation and spending data.

In plain terms, when the Aussie dollar rises against the US dollar, every US dollar of wheat, canola or cotton sold into world markets converts back into slightly fewer Australian dollars. That is one of the key reasons your local price does not always move in lockstep with the US futures price you see quoted, the other being the “basis”.

The next big swing factor is offshore. US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh addresses the Jackson Hole economic symposium overnight, and markets will be looking closely for clues on the path of US interest rates. A tougher than expected message on inflation from Warsh could support the US dollar and pull the Aussie back down, while a softer tone could push the Aussie higher still, both scenarios are realistic outcomes from the same speech.

Whilst the AUD/USD impacts your prices you receive in AUD, we generally don’t focus on trying to pick where our dollar is going, as picking the dollar is harder than picking a broken nose!

Also worth watching
On the input cost side, there was encouraging news for growers this week. US fertiliser cooperative CHS and Moroccan phosphate group OCP announced a joint venture to build the first new large scale fertiliser plant in the US in 42 years, and China is set to ship at least 1.2 million tonnes of urea to India as Beijing's export restrictions continue to ease. Neither development changes input costs overnight, but both point to gradually loosening global fertiliser supply after the tightness of recent years.

Freight costs are moving the other way, with the Baltic Dry Index, a broad measure of global dry bulk shipping rates, extending its rally for a fifth straight session. Rising freight rates can be a sign of healthy global trade activity, but in this case it’s due to inflation (increased oil prices) and risk (of being attacked), both adding to the cost of landed grain to overseas destination, and therefore reducing farm gate returns.

Managing the risk
As always, the best marketing strategy is built around managing risk, not predicting outcomes. Reward rallies with incremental sales, continue updating your production estimates and stock levels as the season unfolds, and remember that buyers cannot buy what they cannot see. If there are opportunities to show your grain or cotton to multiple buyers, competition remains one of the best ways to improve your average price.

With so many moving parts at play right now, from Black Sea diplomacy and Xi and Trumps September meeting, Federal Reserve speech to Chinese weather, no one can say with certainty where prices head next. A disciplined, staged approach to selling, rather than trying to pick the top, remains the most reliable way to protect your bottom line through periods of volatility like this one.

This report is provided for general information purposes and does not constitute personal financial or trading advice. Please speak with your AgVantage broker before making marketing decisions.

27/08/2026

https://www.graincentral.com/markets/feedgrain-focus-rain-buys-north-time-road-rates-dear/

The southern wheat market has bucked this week’s softening trend, while the northern and southern barley markets clock the weight of a bumper crop for Vic and southern NSW. ..Read More

27/08/2026

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26/08/2026

25/08/2026

25/08/2026

Black Sea Tensions, Heat Waves in Europe, and ProFarmers US Crop Tour are the main grain market influences.

Grain and cotton markets extended their run into the new week, with US corn and cotton futures both touching fresh contract highs on Monday and Australian cash wheat sitting at or near season highs in most states. The catalyst remains the Pro Farmer's annual US Crop Tour, which pointed to a smaller than expected corn crop and a potentially record soybean crop, a split result that helps explain why corn and beans have moved in opposite directions this week. Sitting on top is a fragile Black Sea shipping situation and a fresh round of US and Canada trade tension, both reminders that price support right now is coming as much from disruption risk as from underlying supply and demand.

Grain and Oilseed Markets

Wheat remains the standout. CBOT wheat is trading around US$6.81 a bushel (USD $250.50/mt), its best level in about a month, while Australian cash wheat is trading at or near 12 month highs in South Australia, Southern New South Wales and Victoria. The support is coming from the Black Sea, where Ukraine's grain exports have slowed to a trickle, just 188,200 tonnes in the week to 19 August, well down on normal, because ports remain effectively blocked. President Zelenskiy says Russia is not yet willing to agree to a shipping ceasefire. In plain terms, every extra week that Black Sea grain struggles to reach the water adds a bit more support to wheat prices everywhere else, Australia included. The flip side is just as important, if a ceasefire or workaround is reached, that Black Sea grain could return to the market quickly, and prices could give back recent gains just as fast. CBA describes this as the largest logistical shock to Black Sea exports since the 2022 invasion, and is flagging the possibility of a short but sharp price spike if the disruption drags on.

India is adding a wrinkle to the wheat story too, lifting its multi year ban on wheat and flour exports after a record 120.6 million tonne harvest. On paper that is more wheat available to the world, which usually caps prices, but AgResource notes Indian wheat is still priced too high to compete in export markets for now, so do not expect an immediate impact.

Corn has been the biggest mover, CBOT corn punching through to fresh three year and contract highs this week, last near US$4.91 a bushel (USD $193.49/mt). The driver was Pro Farmer's Crop Tour, an annual, boots in the paddock survey of the US corn belt, which came in with a national yield estimate of 173.2 bushels an acre (10.87 tonnes a hectare) and a total crop of 15.344 billion bushels (389.8 million tonnes), smaller than many traders had pencilled in. A smaller than expected US corn crop, at a time when global demand keeps growing, is a genuinely bullish setup, and it shows up in the numbers, large speculative funds added more than 83,000 new long (bought) positions in the week to 18 August. The balancing risk is that this is still an estimate, not the final USDA number, so any upward revision in coming reports could take some heat out of the rally. Having said this, the declining corn yields in the US, are also supported by declining yields in the EU, with current forecasts ~7% lower than the 5 year average.

Soybeans tell the opposite story. The same Crop Tour pointed to a possible record US soybean crop, near 4.572 billion bushels (124.4 million tonnes) on a yield of 53.3 bushels an acre (3.58 tonnes a hectare), with scouts reporting above average pod counts in the paddock. A bumper crop is naturally a headwind for prices, and soybean oil slipped to a six week low as traders unwound positions, though strong crush demand, more soybeans being processed domestically in the US, is providing some underlying support and keeping the pullback orderly rather than sharp.

Canola and rapeseed have had a strong run since early July, up around 8% on ICE in Canada and around 6% on MATIF in Europe, riding the same Black Sea disruption story, since Russia and Ukraine between them account for roughly a fifth of global canola stocks. Over the past week both have eased a little on profit taking and softer soybean oil, Paris rapeseed futures down about €20 in the last week to €522 a tonne, but the underlying trend remains firm. Australian GM and non GM canola have followed the broader trend higher, up 0.5% and 3.6% respectively since early July.

Barley has lagged the rest of the grain complex, down around 2.2% since early July, though a Jordanian tender for 120,000 tonnes this week is a reminder that Middle Eastern demand can move quickly and add support when it shows up.

Delivered wheat and barley Darling Downs bids for September/October deliver (September slots are nearly full) are ~$410. The bid side of the market has been quiet on the back of last weeks, and this week’s rain forecasts. New crop Sorghum delivered Narrabri ~$350 with not all buyers active in the market as they await the meeting between Chinese and US President in September. Another factor feeding into sorghum uncertainty is supply from South America into China.

Cotton

ICE cotton has now rallied for five straight weeks and pushed through to a fresh contract high close of 89.45 US cents a pound (USD $444.15/bale) last week, and currently ~88.26 today. The fundamental support is real, US crop conditions have deteriorated for a third straight week, with drought gripping Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. But positioning in the futures market has become extreme, Commitment of Traders data shows trade related buyers holding a record large net long position of around 13.1 million bales, with speculative funds also heavily long. When that many players are leaning the same way, the market can be vulnerable to a sharp correction if the weather turns more favourable or if any of those large positions start to unwind, so this is a market where the trend is your friend until it very suddenly is not.

Currency, the Aussie Dollar

The Australian dollar eased through Monday's session, slipping from around 71.71 US cents to the 71.40 to 71.50 US cent range, as broader US dollar strength and a soft tone in global equity markets weighed on the currency.

The Global Backdrop

Beyond the paddock, there is a genuinely large amount of geopolitical noise feeding into markets right now. The US and Canada have reignited a trade dispute, with new US tariffs on Canadian goods and Canadian retaliation flagged from 8 September, though corn, soybeans, ethanol, beef and pork have been excluded from the list so far, the key detail for our clients. Separately, the US is reportedly preparing a broad sanctions package against Iran and countries that trade with it, which has helped keep oil prices elevated, Brent testing above US$95 a barrel, with only an estimated 20 to 50% of normal shipping volumes able to move through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices flow through to freight, fertiliser and on farm fuel costs, and we believe this will help hold our commodity prices higher, although in real terms, you are no better off.

Weather

At home, WA and SA cropping regions picked up a useful 5 to 25mm of rain last week, with Victoria and southern NSW getting a more solid 10 to 50mm. That is welcome follow up moisture, but the Bureau of Meteorology's outlook for the September to November period still points to an elevated risk of a dry spring across the south eastern cropping belt and the far south west of WA, worth factoring into decisions around spring finishing and marketing timing. Overseas, Europe's crop monitoring service has cut its yield outlook for summer crops, corn especially, across western and central Europe on persistent heat and drought, most notably in Hungary, while parts of the US Southern Plains remain under extreme heat even as Midwest showers ease some of the immediate stress there.

What This Could Mean for You

For wheat and barley growers, the current price strength is being driven by a supply disruption rather than a change in the underlying demand and supply balance, which is exactly the kind of rally that can unwind quickly if circumstances change. It may be worth considering locking in some forward sales into this strength rather than waiting for the very top of the market, particularly given cash values in South Australia, Southern New South Wales and Victoria are all sitting at or near season highs.

For canola growers, values remain well supported by the same Black Sea story, but with harvest pressure building in the Northern Hemisphere and a small pullback already underway, this is a good window to review your marketing plan and make sure you are comfortable with your position heading into spring.

For cotton growers, the extreme positioning in the futures market cuts both ways, prices are strong, but the setup is stretched, so this is a market to watch closely rather than assume the trend continues in a straight line.

Managing Your Risk

As always, the best marketing strategy is built around managing risk, not predicting outcomes. Reward rallies with incremental sales, continue updating your production estimates and stock levels as the season unfolds, and remember that buyers can't buy what they can't see. If there are opportunities to show grain or cotton to multiple buyers, competition remains one of the best ways to improve your average price. Please get in touch with your AgVantage broker to talk through how these moves apply to your own situation before making any marketing decisions.

22/08/2026

Current Offers and recent Trades

21/08/2026

Welcome rain
Narrabri received a very welcome and needed 19mm of rain in the last 24 hours. Not drought breaking, but this will assist crops for another few weeks. More rain needed, but this will be beneficial to crops in the area. In northern NSW, western and northern areas did not receive as much 🙁.
Walgett 6.6, Coonamble 10.6, Moree 12, Goondiwindi 1.4.
Gunnedah 12.4
How much did you record? Drop a comment below with your Location and mm received.

20/08/2026

Wheat, barley and feed grains - supported by Donald Trump, the Middle East, oil, fertiliser, the Black-sea, Russia and Ukraine, India and weather!

All that said, the bid side of the domestic feed grain market has been quiet this week on the back of another positive weather forecast for next week.

No doubt there are farmers in regions that want rain, and some that don’t. From a purchases view point, they are optimistic that if we get the required rain, supply will be sured up for new crop harvest.

Whilst this strategy might pay off in the short term, globally, commodity prices are on the rise and the outlook is bullish.

Therefore, whilst there might be some harvest pressure coming from the better yield potential areas of central, southern NSW, VIC and SA, it should be short lived if global prices keep rising, and we believe the trend is for higher prices moving forward.

If you are a seller, keep an eye on spring weather and the outlook for summer. If the forecast for El Niño is correct, it won’t take much to see prices rise post harvest.

It might be worth considering in your marketing plans not to sell everything at harvest this year!