01/09/2026
An analysis of Cotality data shows Australia's property downturn is playing out very differently across the capital cities, with some markets holding substantial buffers while others could quickly lose years of gains.
Melbourne has a smaller buffer after years of subdued growth. Dwelling values peaked at $840,000 in November 2025, and a decline of just over 10% from that peak could return values to pre-pandemic levels. For buyers, particularly first home buyers previously priced out of the market, softer prices could open the door to more affordable entry points.
Sydney is already more than 5% below its peak, and a 20% decline from the peak would take values back to around May 2021 levels. In Brisbane, the same decline would only return values to around August 2024, reflecting the city’s exceptional recent growth.
Could property prices fall by 20%? Cotality isn't forecasting such a decline. Instead, its analysis shows that even a correction of that magnitude is unlikely to erase years of gains in markets such as Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.
During a downturn, it can be tempting to hold off buying until the market ‘bottoms out’. But waiting too long could mean missing valuable opportunities. Rather than trying to time the market, focusing on finding the right property at a price you can comfortably afford is a sounder approach.
