14/07/2022
Rate-rise - to dampen the consumer & business or to kill it.
- 1.25% increase in aggregate rates, followed (expected) by a 0.50% rise in August.
- It is hoped that rate increases will finally balance from September onwards
- Inflation is at its highest level in more than 30 years
- A rapid decline in consumer and business confidence
- Elevated Household Savings since the start of the Covid-19
- Strong labour market (can also contribute to inflation)
- Resilient Economy
There are a lot of people already struggling with the rising costs of essentials, like groceries, petrol, medicine, and gas/electricity. A further rate hike will add to that even though the higher spending is due to COVID recovery, supply chain problems, the Ukraine crisis, and natural disasters.
We are reminded to tighten our belts and stop spending. What will be the spillover impact?
A home loan will have an interest rate of around 4.5% by the end of the year. (RBA around 2.5%)
About 10% of property prices fall, then recover within 12 months.
What do you think?