25/06/2026
Gold Breaks Below $4,000: Has the Market Tone Changed? 🤔
Gold briefly fell below US$4,000/oz for the first time since November 2025. From its January high, prices have now pulled back by more than US$1,500.
This time, gold did not follow the usual safe-haven playbook. Instead, the move reflects a shift in market pricing:
1️⃣ Hawkish Fed expectations
After the Fed kept rates unchanged on June 17, markets turned more hawkish. The probability of a December rate hike briefly rose above 85%, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.
2️⃣ Stronger US dollar
The US Dollar Index briefly reached a 13-month high, making gold more expensive for non-US buyers and reducing its appeal.
3️⃣ Fading risk premium
Progress in US-Iran talks and the IMO’s exit scheme for hundreds of stranded vessels carrying around 11,000 seafarers have eased worst-case fears over the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, markets are repricing part of gold’s earlier safe-haven premium.
What do you think? Is gold simply cooling off, or is the bullish momentum starting to break?
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