08/02/2025
The AFR last week:
“A dozen economists, including National Australia Bank and Westpac, quickly revised their predictions, certain of a rate cut arriving in February.
Yet, five forecasters at Barrenjoey, Deloitte, KPMG, Judo Bank and Oxford Economics are steadfast in their conviction the cash rate will stay at 4.35 per cent a little longer because the RBA needs more evidence about the inflationary picture. Trump’s trade war simply adds to the case for not acting impulsively on monetary policy.
The RBA has held the cash rate at a 13-year high for more than a year, awaiting further evidence that inflation is irreversibly back to its 2 per cent to 3 per cent target.
“The CPI [consumer price index] data has opened the door to a February cut, but we see the odds at 50:50,” said Jo Masters, chief economist at Barrenjoey.
What do you think? Will the rate cut be in February Yes or No?
Let me know what you’re thinking 🙏
