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Parking at La Perouse
01/08/2026

Parking at La Perouse

It was a pleasure to referee the Grand Final at the John Moriarty Indigenous Football Foundation 6-aside Cup at Allianz ...
26/09/2023

It was a pleasure to referee the Grand Final at the John Moriarty Indigenous Football Foundation 6-aside Cup at Allianz Stadium (Sydney Football Stadium) today.

Great to see those aspiring football (round ball) young players be given a chance to excel themselves in the sport they love.

Can We Even Afford To Be Tenants In Our Own Country?All politicians are doing is spending money on first homeowners’ sch...
12/09/2023

Can We Even Afford To Be Tenants In Our Own Country?

All politicians are doing is spending money on first homeowners’ schemes.

The market, wealthy individuals that can afford to buy investment properties, real estate agents and developers use the cobra effect to keep on pushing home prices up to whatever thresholds on the first homeowners’ schemes the politicians set.

And at the same time, each and every generation of first homeowners, not only have to compete with the wealthy individuals and developers, but they also subsidise these wealthy individuals with billions of dollars each year in negative gearing tax breaks.

This asymmetric and horrid policies must end now. Negative gearing must be restructured by being quarantined to each individual investment property owned. https://cls.com.au/post/home-affordability-is-fair-dinkum-australia-failing-gen-z-alpha

Since the last RBA cash rate increase in June 2023, median house prices in Sydney are ~2.3% higher, Melbourne ~1%, Brisb...
23/07/2023

Since the last RBA cash rate increase in June 2023, median house prices in Sydney are ~2.3% higher, Melbourne ~1%, Brisbane ~2.4%, Adelaide 1.8% and Perth ~1.6%. And this is in less than 2 months!

Inflation is also higher despite the media headlines that is going down. It is higher because there have been quarterly increases and not falls in inflation.

The bond market (as of today) wants a 0.50% cash rate increase and soon. It can change its mind very quickly, but it is a better forecaster than economist.

Will the RBA step up on 1 August 2023, and attempt to cool the housing market and appease the bond market and increase interest rates? Yes.

Home loans become problematic for banks when the borrower cannot afford to pay. When this occurs it simply passes it on ...
05/07/2023

Home loans become problematic for banks when the borrower cannot afford to pay. When this occurs it simply passes it on to their arrears team for management.

APRA (Australian Prudential Regulation Authority) expects banks to assess new borrowers’ ability to meet their loan repayments at an interest rate that is at least 3% points above the home loan product interest rate.

Despite all the media commentary about mortgage stress, arrears, cliffs, and borrowers getting second and third jobs to make ends meet, the banks have now invented a brilliant new way to lend you even more money by assessing their version of your loan affordability (under responsible lending) at just 1% instead of 3% above the home loan product interest rate.

Mortgage managers are getting into the new fad, by counter offering 0% assessment on selected home loan products.

Do you remember the good old cashback that gave you back an insignificant fraction of the money the banks would make on your home loan if you signed up with them, that became a fad because everyone else got into the act?

It’s a big club and it’s getting bigger and you ain’t in it, unless you are a…

These are my reasons why I will not panic if interest rates spike higher in the next couple of months.We all know, or ou...
21/05/2023

These are my reasons why I will not panic if interest rates spike higher in the next couple of months.

We all know, or ought to know, that the USA bond market is the biggest bubble in human history. It may well be bigger than the sum of all other bubbles before it, one day it will implode, and it will take all with it - except for Silver, Gold, and some commodities.

With the circus coming out of the USA about the debt ceiling, is it now?

It may well be, but my indicators tell me otherwise.

If the selloff in the 10-year bonds continue well into June 2023 (or even July 2023), and close the month at near the highs of the sell off, I would not smirk, because I know that a rare technical analysis reversal signal will come in play.

This will be confirmed, circa the same time, with something not nice gonna happen to the stock market.

The market can change its mind in double quick time, and if it does, it will be reflected in the technical indicators and all bets will be off.

If correct, then I expect lower interest rates thereafter followed by the next interest rate cycle bust circa 2026 – which may be a nasty one.

As for the RBA cash rate, the market expects the next 0.25% rate increase to be close to the terminal cash rate.

I would therefore choose to stay variable on my home loan. You need to do you own research and seek advice from those that you chose to deal your home loan with.

Is the Reserve Bank wrong again?The battle of wits is on again, albeit at a very early stage. Last round went to the bon...
28/03/2023

Is the Reserve Bank wrong again?

The battle of wits is on again, albeit at a very early stage. Last round went to the bond market.

The bond market is starting to believe that the RBA has gone too far with its cash rate increases in such a short period of time that it needs to pause. It is even starting to flirt with a small rate cut by the end of the year.

Here is why. The 3 month bank bill swap rate is about 3.75% (dotted horizontal line on the chart) whilst the cash rate is at 3.60%. All other maturities on the yield curve are lower than 3.75% except for 10 years and over signalling that something is about to give. The market can change its view as it sees fit at any time, but if it does, it will let us all know (if you know where to look).

Here’s another reason, which is purely a simple technical analysis observation on the stock market and it’s not financial advice – The fall from 7779 to 7081 in the All Ords Index has formed a price exhaustion signal on 24 March 2023 at 7137, with a target level of 7567. The ASX200 index has yet to follow, but it may achieve the same if it falls and closes below 6955 in the next couple of days.

For the stock market to rise it needs the RBA to at least pause, and voila coincidence or not, the next RBA meeting is next week on 4 April 2023.

Affordable Darwin - December 2022.Darwin outperformed all other capital cities (by at least 2 times) since 1979 (green d...
16/02/2023

Affordable Darwin - December 2022.

Darwin outperformed all other capital cities (by at least 2 times) since 1979 (green dotted lines) despite going sideways between 2011 and 2022 (black dotted lines).

Darwin is the least affordable and most expensive capital city by this measure.

Whilst all other capital cities’ PPI are within a fallen wedge (green dotted lines on each capital city’s respective chart), Darwin is now in a parallel channel (black dotted lines), and bouncing back and forth within the channel.

If and when the PPI breaks in a northern direction (because of house price falls, higher inflation, higher interest rates, or any combination of these), watch out Darwin house and unit prices.

The PPI for the most recent calculation period being December 2022, is by default set to one (1).

Authored by QED Realty and BIDsquare.


Affordable Hobart - December 2022.Hobart’s Purchasing Power Index has progressively become exuberantly expensive over ti...
12/02/2023

Affordable Hobart - December 2022.

Hobart’s Purchasing Power Index has progressively become exuberantly expensive over time, much like the other capital cities but more extreme. This is one of the indicators we use to analyse real estate trends.

The green dotted lines on the chart bound each property cycle with the PPI making lower highs and lower lows (i.e., property prices became extremely more expensive over time). In technical analysis, this is a fallen wedge which may be interpreted that the PPI will increase in the future, and this may be achieved through further house price falls, higher inflation, higher interest rates, or any combination of these.

The PPI for the most recent calculation period being December 2022, is by default set to one (1).

Authored by QED Realty.



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