13/03/2026
Over the past few weeks, global oil prices have risen sharply, largely due to escalating conflict in the Middle East and concerns about supply disruptions through key shipping routes. Economists and Australia’s Treasury have warned that sustained higher oil prices can add meaningfully to inflation, particularly through higher fuel, transport and production costs.
This is important because inflation in Australia is already running above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range. Recent data shows headline inflation remains elevated, leaving the economy more vulnerable to additional price shocks from energy costs.
As a result, interest rate expectations have shifted quickly. Major Australian banks — including Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB and ANZ — have all revised their outlooks and are now anticipating that the RBA is likely to raise the cash rate, potentially as soon as the next policy meeting, with some banks forecasting further increases if inflation pressures persist.
Importantly, banks have already started responding ahead of any RBA move. In recent days, a number of lenders have begun increasing fixed mortgage rates, reflecting higher wholesale funding costs and expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer. Fixed rates typically move before official cash rate changes, and this adjustment is already being seen across the market.
What does this mean for borrowers?
Variable rates may rise if the RBA increases the cash rate.
Fixed rates have already started to move higher, reducing the window to lock in today’s pricing.
For some borrowers, reviewing loan structure or fixing a portion of their loan may help provide certainty and protect cash flow.
If you would like to review your current loan or explore whether fixing part or all of your mortgage makes sense, or look at locking in a fixed rate before further increases, please get in touch. We’re happy to talk through your options and help you decide what’s appropriate for your situation.
