09/06/2026
Interest Rate Relief on the Horizon?
After a long period of higher interest rates putting pressure on household budgets, there may finally be some welcome news ahead.
NAB and Commonwealth Bank, are now forecasting that the next move in interest rates is likely to be down, as signs emerge that the Australian economy is slowing.
Recent ABS data showed economic growth slowed to just 0.3% in the March quarter, down from 0.9% previously, whilst GDP per person actually declined.
In simple terms, the economy is still growing, but momentum does appear to be fading.
NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld says conditions have changed significantly since earlier this year, with growth slowing and tighter financial conditions weighing on activity. While inflation and employment figures still remain important, NAB believes the next move by the RBA is likely to be a cut.
What could this mean?
1. Potential relief for mortgage holders.
2. Improved borrowing capacity over time.
3. Greater confidence returning to the property market.
While the NAB now has greater confidence that Australia’s next interest rate move will be down, it is less certain about when that will happen. Rates may hold for a while if inflation proves to be stubborn. However, after abandoning its previous forecast of an August rate rise, NAB now anticipates the official cash rate to drop from 4.35% to 3.6% by the end of 2027.
The Reserve Bank will announce its next cash rate decision at 2.30pm on June 16, with economists and financial markets widely expecting rates to remain on hold.