Ben O’Keefe - Mortgage Broker

18/05/2026

“The demand's still there, but the accessibility to actually afford it is starting to thin who actually can put an offer in.”

People are still turning up to home opens, however what’s changing is the ability to actually afford it.

A few months ago a property might have had 10 offers. Now maybe it gets 2 or 3.

And a main drive of this is borrowing capacity has tightened and buyers are becoming more selective.

The market hasn’t fallen off a cliff. It’s just becoming harder to transact and buyers are now questioning value more.

At the same time, some sellers are still pricing off peak emotion from months ago.

That gap between buyer reality and seller expectation is creating friction.

Personally, I think we’re moving into a period where growth slows, but doesn’t necessarily reverse.

A few things worth remembering:
• If you purchased before the budget announcement, negative gearing benefits still apply
• The 6 year CGT main residence rule wasn’t removed
• Holding quality property for longer may become more favourable moving forward
• We may see more people explore company structures or SMSFs depending on their situation

I think we’ll continue to see people chasing better lifestyle assets, upsizing and buying quality locations rather than just accumulating “doors”.

My personal take the 3 biggest opportunities moving forward are:

1. Duplex and Triplex sites
Especially if you already hold the land. Development sites aren’t impacted the same way by the budget changes, and supply is still a massive issue(

2. Quality Owner Occupied Assets
People forget your own home isn’t impacted by CGT. I think we’ll continue to see demand for quality homes in quality areas as people prioritise lifestyle and upgrading.

3. SMSF Property Investing
I think more people will start seriously looking at SMSF strategies long term as the landscape changes.

But until supply improves meaningfully, it’s hard to see a major correction whilst demand still outweighs stock.

14/05/2026

Here is my breakdown of negative gearing and CGT changes going forward - and hopefully provides some reassurance

1. Negative gearing should never be your strategy anyway

It’s a benefit, not the cornerstone of your strategy
The real money has always been made through property growth, not chasing deductions or high yield.
$5,000 tax deduction vs a $200,000 growth in an asset

2. People are misunderstanding how the losses work

The losses don’t magically disappear forever.
They are deferred, meaning investors can still offset them against future rental income and capital gains later on.
Which is another reason why many investors will now simply hold property longer.

3. Fringe areas and low-yield stock will feel this first

The immediate impact will likely be on properties that were already expensive to hold relative to the rental return.
Those properties just became even more costly.
Growth > yield chasing.

4. The people hurt most won’t be wealthy investors

The established investors with equity and multiple assets will adapt.

The people most impacted are likely:

* new investors,
* younger buyers,
* and those trying to enter the market for the first time.

Borrowing capacity takes a hit without the same tax treatment, meaning many buyers will now almost be forced into new builds instead of established housing.

Here is the devil in the detail - Everyone gets funnelled into the same segment of the market.

One thing that is now becoming more important is structure. But before making any investment decisions, please speak to your accountant and get proper tax advice.

Depending on the situation, a company structure, or an SMSF may become more favourable moving forward.

One final note.

In 1985:

* CGT indexation was introduced
* negative gearing was abolished

…and around 18 months later it was rapidly reinstated because it was stifling the economy.

Then in New Zealand:

* Labor scrapped negative gearing in 2021
* rents surged
* and by 2023 it was reinstated.

History doesn’t always repeat… but it definitely rhymes.

13/05/2026

Negative gearing and CGT changes.. my take.

13/05/2026

Dr James has said "rents will “only increase by $2"

This is the same government that said the 5% guarantee scheme would only increase property prices by 0.6% over six years… meanwhile prices absolutely ripped higher.

As we know Labor has officially abolished negative gearing on established properties for new purchases, and somehow this is being sold as a win for renters and first home buyers.

But let’s call it for what it is.

Existing investors? Protected.
Current negatively geared properties? Grandfathered.
New investors buying established homes? No deductions.

So what happens next?

Landlords will use it as reason to increase rents to cover the lost tax benefit.
Investors hold properties longer because higher CGT means selling makes less sense.
Less stock hits the market.
First home buyers compete even harder.

Policy decisions have consequences.

And where do investors now go if they still want tax benefits?

New builds.

Which just so happens to be the exact same segment first home buyers are already fighting over.

So now you’ve got:

* First home buyers
* Investors chasing deductions
* Overseas buyers restricted to new stock

…all competing for the same product.

We’ve already seen this movie before in the mid-80s. Rents exploded and the policy got reversed.

The reality is housing affordability is a supply issue.
You do not fix a housing shortage by discouraging investment into housing.

And before anyone says “good, investors are the problem” keep in mind most investors in Australia are mum and dad investors with one property, not giant corporations.

If you want affordability:

* Build more homes
* Speed up approvals
* Reduce construction costs
* Increase supply

Punishing investors without fixing supply just pushes costs onto tenants and makes entry harder for everyone trying to get into the market.

11/05/2026

Negative gearing changes… but the bigger issue is still supply

The Federal Government is reportedly set to preserve negative gearing for existing investors, but restrict it to new builds only moving forward, alongside potential changes to Capital Gains Tax concessions.

Now before everyone starts cheering thinking this “fixes” housing affordability, there’s a few realities people need to understand.

Most property investors are not mega wealthy elites sitting on 20 properties.

The majority are everyday Australians, mum and dad investors with 1 investment property trying to build wealth outside of super.

And despite what social media says, investors are actually a major part of housing supply. Without investors, a lot of renters simply wouldn’t have somewhere to live.

The other thing people keep missing is this…

Property growth has always been the real wealth strategy, not negative gearing.

A $5k–10k tax deduction per year means very little compared to a property increasing in value over a cycle.

That’s why location, supply and long term growth matter more than chasing “high yield” properties or tax benefits.

We’re also still waiting to see what the actual CGT changes look like. That could end up being the bigger story here.

My biggest concern is the flow-on effect to renters.

Not everyone can buy a home right now for different reasons.

If you increase the cost base for investors through higher tax, reduced incentives and holding costs, eventually those costs get passed on.

And we’re already in a rental crisis.

Now, restricting incentives toward new builds instead of established homes does make more sense from a supply perspective. Creating more concessions for new construction is welcome.

But people also need to understand the realities of building. Construction costs are still high and investors receive no rental income while properties are being built

That risk and cost has to stack up financially, otherwise projects simply don’t proceed.

And when projects don’t proceed… supply gets worse.

At the end of the day, Australia doesn’t have a tax problem in housing.

It has a supply problem.

07/05/2026

WA State Budget - First Home Buyer Changes

• No stamp duty on homes up to $600,000 (was $500,000)
• Reduced stamp duty now applies up to $800,000 (was $700,000)
• No stamp duty on vacant land up to $450,000 (was $350,000)
• $10,000 First Home Owner Grant now available on newly built homes up to $800,000 (was $750,000)

Still feels like the thresholds are playing catch up when Perth’s median house price is now around the $1,000,000 mark… but we’ll take what we can get.

06/05/2026

It’s important to understand that the RBA only has one blunt too to manage inflation.. interest rates.

But if governments keep spending aggressively whilst the RBA is trying to slow the economy, inflation stays sticky.

That’s why rates will stay higher for longer.

This government needs to stop throwing money around like fun coupons

05/05/2026

Noise vs fundamentals

Summed up really well in the data but also in the recent Podcast.

There is a lot of noise around the Perth property market right now.

War, inflation, interest rates, possible tax changes, cost of living, seller expectations.

And yes, all of that matters.

But here is the part people keep skipping over.

Perth still has a supply problem.

Listings are still low.

Buyer numbers may have cooled from peak FOMO levels, but we are still seeing genuine competition for quality property.

Going from 15 offers on a home to 5 or 6 offers does not mean the market is crashing.

It means the market has gone from completely ridiculous to still very strong.

The issue is simple.

We have more people wanting to live here than we have homes available.

Until that changes, it is hard to see prices falling in any meaningful way.

Could growth slow? Absolutely.

Could buyers become more cautious? Already happening.

Could vendors overcook their expectations and miss good offers? Definitely.

But a slower market is not the same as a falling market.

If you have a proper plan, the right finance structure and you can afford the repayments, stick to the plan.

Do not make long-term property decisions based on short-term noise.

07/04/2026

07/04/2026

Well said 👌