07/10/2026
Many Australians assume that the success of their retirement will largely depend on investment returns. While returns are certainly important, retirement outcomes can also be shaped by something far less obvious: when those returns occur.
This concept is known as sequencing risk and describes the impact that the order of investment returns can have once you begin drawing an income from your portfolio. A retiree who experiences a significant market downturn in the first few years of retirement may face a very different outcome to someone who encounters the same downturn much later, even if their long-term investment returns ultimately prove similar.
Consider Paul and Karen*, who retire at age 67 with approximately $850,000 in superannuation and their home paid off. Their spending goals broadly align with a comfortable retirement lifestyle, and like many retirees, their initial focus is on investment performance.
However, if one of them lives into their nineties, their retirement could span almost three decades and include multiple market cycles, changing legislation, evolving family priorities and potentially higher healthcare costs. Now imagine a significant market downturn occurs in the first few years of retirement. Rather than simply waiting for markets to recover, they may need to continue drawing income at the same time their investments have fallen in value, reducing the capital available to benefit from any future recovery.
This is one reason retirement planning looks different from investment planning.
Will your money last in retirement? More in our recent article here: https://stratusfinancialgroup.com.au/financialplanning/will-your-money-last-through-a-30-year-retirement