08/10/2026
Were you shopping for a fixed rate in September? You might have noticed the price moved before the RBA did.
Canstar reported that 13 lenders, including three of the big four banks, lifted their fixed rates in September ahead of the RBA's decision. Then on 29 September, the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60 per cent, its fourth increase this year.
So how did the banks see it coming? Banks have economists and treasury teams tracking the same data the RBA watches, from inflation to jobs to what global markets are doing. Fixed rates are priced on where those teams expect rates to head.
A variable rate follows the cash rate as it moves. A fixed rate is a promise about the future, so the bank works out today what it will cost to fund your loan for the next one, two or five years. When the market expects rates to rise, fixed rates climb ahead of the official move.
Which means the fixed rate you're quoted today already has the market's forecast baked in. Fixing won't get you in ahead of a rise the market has already seen coming.
So why fix at all? Certainty. You know exactly what your repayments will be for the fixed term, which is handy when rates keep moving.
The trade-off is flexibility. Most fixed loans cap how much extra you can repay, many don't come with a full offset account, and getting out early can mean break costs. When the term ends, the loan rolls onto a variable rate unless you refix.
Variable gives you that flexibility back. Extra repayments, offset accounts and an easier path to refinance. The catch is your repayments move every time rates do, up or down.
There's also a middle ground. A split loan lets you fix part and keep part variable, so you get some certainty and some wiggle room.
Already on a fixed rate? The recent rises won't touch your repayments until your term ends. Pop your fixed expiry date in the calendar now so it doesn't sneak up on you.
Neither option wins every time. The right fit comes down to your cash flow, how long you plan to keep the loan, and how much you value knowing your number each month 🦁