18/06/2026
3.5 more months of pain.
Only now are people starting to realize that things may not be as bullish as they expected. The market is slowly waking up to reality.
There’s more pain ahead before this is over.
That said, nothing has changed in our outlook since February - we’re following the plan 🎯
Where could Bitcoin find its bottom? 🎯
Every Bitcoin cycle, I hear the same story: “This time is different.”
Yes, this CRYPTO cycle did feel different - many altcoins were heavily destroyed. But Bitcoin behaved exactly as it always has, which is why we were able to time the top so well. Now it’s time to talk about the bottom.
I tried to present this chart in a way that’s easy to understand - simple enough that even a 10-year-old could follow it. Hope you enjoy it.
This is now the 4th consecutive cycle where the same historical pattern has played out. And history suggests there should be more downside ahead.
Bitcoin bear market drawdowns follow a clear trend:
▪️ 2011: −93.77%
▪️ 2015: −86.52%
▪️ 2018: −84.48%
▪️ 2022: −77.42%
Each cycle, the drawdown becomes smaller as the market matures. Time between top & bottom remains stable (~12-14 months). Bottoms form after sentiment completely collapses, not during hope.
On the monthly chart, we’re seeing lower highs, weak rebounds, and strong selling pressure. Relief rallies keep getting shorter and weaker - a classic sign of a mid-bear phase, not capitulation yet. One of these relief rallies is happening right now.
🎯 Projected bottom:
October 2026: ~ $38,000
This aligns with prior macro accumulation zones, long-term trend support, and historical bottom timing windows.
The probabilities are on our side. We’re still about 8 months away, so naturally, things can change, but the closer we get, the clearer and more accurate the picture becomes. We just need a bit more data to be more accurate.
Of course, we’ll keep you updated on any changes - and we’ll let you know when the bottom is in.
I can already imagine the comments coming - happy to hear every opinion. Let me know what you think 👇