21/10/2026
UK Inflation Accelerates: CPI Rises to 3.5% in September
UK CPI rose to 3.5% year-on-year in September, up from 3.1% and above the market forecast of 3.4%, marking its highest level since October 2025. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.4%, compared with expectations of 0.3%.
Key figures:
Headline CPI: 3.5% (previous 3.1%, forecast 3.4%)
Core CPI: 2.8% (previous 2.6%, forecast 2.7%)
Services inflation: 3.7% (previous 3.4%)
Motor fuel inflation: 29.8% (previous 23.0%)
Transport inflation rose from 4.6% to 6.6%, driven primarily by higher fuel prices. Goods inflation accelerated to 3.2%, while housing and household services inflation increased to 5.3%. Restaurants and hotels inflation eased to 3.8%, providing the largest downward offset, and food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation remained unchanged at 1.3%.
For the Bank of England, the stronger readings support maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance. With a November rate hike already largely reflected in market pricing, attention now turns to the persistence of underlying inflation and the outlook for further tightening, which may provide additional context for GBP-related markets.
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