19/05/2025
WEEKLY WRAP – MAY 18 💥
What Happened Last Week:
- U.S. Inflation Surprised Slightly Lower: CPI came in just below forecasts, reviving rate cut hopes and giving equities a mid-week boost.
- Powell Reiterated Patience: The Fed chair maintained his stance on needing more data before acting on rates — balancing soft inflation with still-resilient labor data.
-UK GDP Beat Expectations: Britain posted stronger-than-expected growth figures, lifting the pound despite continued BoE caution.
- Oil Rebounded Modestly: WTI climbed back above $79 after earlier pressure from inventory builds and OPEC+ output rumors.
- Gold & Silver Lost Momentum: Both metals faced resistance after last week’s strong showing. Market cycle positioning suggests a top could be in for now.
📉 Crypto Pulled Back: Stellar (XLM), Ripple (XRP), and Bitcoin all came under pressure midweek.
What to Watch This Week:
- FOMC Minutes (Weds): Insight into the Fed’s thinking on inflation stickiness and timing of possible cuts.
- Eurozone Flash PMIs (Thurs): Key data to gauge economic divergence in the bloc.
- UK CPI (Weds): Crucial for sterling pairs, especially with BoE on the fence.
- China Industrial Data: Could shape commodity FX including AUD and NZD.
- Earnings Season Wind-Down: Watch for retail names and guidance into Q3.
FX Setups & Pattern Insights:
- AUDCHF and CADCHF – Beautiful textbook harmonic setups emerging, both looking like they’re forming Gartley patterns with solid change-of-character triggers.
- GBPCAD – Two weeks of rise suggests week 3 momentum incoming — textbook cycle pattern in play.
- EURCAD – Target 1 hit, with potential continuation if market conditions align.
- USDCHF & US500 – Show strong structure and likely to break higher if levels clear.