26/03/2026
March 2026 changes everything.
My updated System Demand Shock (Best Case) shows EVs (BEV+PHEV) hitting ~80% of global sales by 2030 & ~99.2% by 2035.
The trigger? A system break—igniting demand, with PHEVs acting as the bridge that accelerates ICE collapse.
We’re not looking at a smooth transition here. We’re looking at a system under pressure. Historically, every oil shock reinforced the system—1973, 1979, 2008 all led to adaptation and continuation. This time is different because there’s finally a viable exit ramp: EVs, solar, and batteries. That changes the dynamic completely.
And importantly—this isn’t 2022 anymore.
Back then, the system wasn’t ready. There was no real scale, the secondhand market was thin, charging infrastructure was still early, and purchase options were limited. EVs were growing fast, but they were still constrained.
Moving into 2026, that’s changed.
Scale is here. Costs have dropped. The secondhand market is forming. Charging networks have expanded. And consumers now have real choice across price points and segments. The foundations are in place.
The key most people miss is that ICE doesn’t collapse into BEVs alone. It collapses into a dual front. BEVs take over where infrastructure is ready, while PHEVs bridge the rest immediately—no waiting, no excuses. Chinese PHEVs are critical here. They remove infrastructure constraints, lower upfront costs, and still deliver EV driving for daily use. That makes them the fastest way to displace ICE at scale.
So instead of a slow ICE → BEV transition, what actually happens is ICE → PHEV + BEV → BEV dominance. That’s why the curve compresses so aggressively. We move from ~23% EV share in 2025 into a system break around 2026–2027, and from there the shift accelerates rapidly toward ~80% by 2030 and near-total dominance by 2035.
This isn’t linear adoption—it’s replacement under pressure. Once the break happens, ICE doesn’t just decline, it loses volume, economics, and relevance all at once. And when that feedback loop kicks in, the system doesn’t stabilise—it unravels.
Sales tell you what’s happening. Fleet tells you who wins. And the fleet is now locked on trajectory.
