NCM Financial Services

17/06/2026

16/06/2026

As a new Hijri year begins, we look ahead to new opportunities, continued growth, and future achievements. Wishing you a prosperous and successful year ahead.

15/06/2026

FOMC week starts tomorrow ⚠️

The Fed meets Tuesday–Wednesday. Decision drops Wednesday at 10 PM GST, followed by Chair Warsh's press conference at 10:30 PM.
What markets are pricing in (CME FedWatch):
→ 97% chance of HOLD at 3.50%–3.75%

→ ~3% chance of a cut
But the hold is not the story. Three things are:
1️⃣ This is Kevin Warsh's FIRST meeting as Fed Chair — his tone sets the path for the rest of 2026

2️⃣ The dot plot drops — the Fed's own rate forecasts. Last time the committee was split 8-4, the most divided since 1992.

3️⃣ It lands days after a 4%+ CPI print. Some members are now openly discussing HIKES, not cuts.
The real question is not "what will they do tomorrow" — it is "what does Warsh signal for July and September."
Markets are split: 57% now price ZERO cuts for all of 2026.
Watch the dot plot and Warsh's tone. That is where the volatility lives — Gold, DXY, EUR/USD, and indices.
Prepare. Don't react.

📅 Calendar → link in bio
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

11/06/2026

🔴 The ECB is about to do something it has not done in nearly 3 years — HIKE rates.
Decision at 4:15 PM GST. Lagarde press conference at 4:45 PM GST.

What is happening:
📌 Market pricing: 100% probability of a 25 bps hike → deposit rate rises from 2.00% to 2.25%
📌 This would be the ECB's FIRST rate hike in nearly 3 years
📌 The driver: the Middle East oil shock has pushed eurozone inflation sharply higher
📌 Updated staff projections released alongside — higher inflation, weaker growth
📌 At least one more hike already priced in before year-end

Why the volatility will be sharp:
The hike itself is fully priced in — so the euro's reaction depends on Lagarde's TONE, not the decision.

📈 Hawkish Lagarde (hints at July/September hikes) → EUR rallies, DAX dips
📉 Dovish hike (one-and-done signal) → EUR sells off, DAX rallies
And remember — this lands ONE DAY after US CPI. Two inflation-driven central bank events back to back. EUR/USD is the epicentre.

Watch EUR/USD and DAX 40 the moment Lagarde speaks.

📅 Calendar → https://www.ncmfinancials.com/economic-calendar

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

10/06/2026

🔴 CPI DAY — and this might be the most important inflation print of 2026.

May CPI drops at 4:30 PM GST. Here is why Wall Street is nervous:

📌 Headline CPI expected: 4.2% YoY — a THREE-YEAR HIGH (up from 3.3% in April)
📌 Monthly: +0.5% MoM
📌 Core CPI expected: 2.9% YoY — moving in the WRONG direction for the Fed
📌 April PPI: 6.0% YoY with energy at 22.7% — businesses are passing costs to consumers
📌 WTI crude up 62% YTD — the primary driver of the inflation spike
📌 Survey of Professional Forecasters: Q2 inflation projected to hit 6%

What makes this release different from every other CPI:

1️⃣ It is the LAST inflation print before the June 16–17 FOMC — Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair
2️⃣ ECB rate decision is TOMORROW (June 11) — back-to-back volatility
3️⃣ CME FedWatch is now pricing possible rate HIKES — not cuts

The scenarios:

📈 CPI above 4.2% → rate hike fears spike → USD rallies hard, Gold drops, equities sell off
📊 CPI at 4.2% (in-line) → priced in → brief volatility, then markets focus on FOMC
📉 CPI below 4.0% → relief rally → Gold up, USD down, equities surge

This is the number that decides whether the Fed cuts, holds, or hikes for the rest of 2026.

📅 Calendar → https://www.ncmfinancials.com/economic-calendar

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

05/06/2026

🔴 NFP DAY — May jobs report drops at 4:30 PM GST.
What we know heading in:
📌 Consensus: +150,000 jobs (Capital Economics)
📌 April NFP (prior): +115,000 — beat the 62K forecast
📌 March revised UP to +185,000
📌 Unemployment expected: 4.3% (steady since July 2025)
📌 Wages: expected +3.8% YoY — slightly higher than April's 3.5%
📌 Job openings at lowest level since 2020 — "low hire, low fire" market

Why this one is critical:
This is the last major data point before the June 16–17 FOMC — Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. The number will shape his first rate decision.
Meanwhile, oil crashed 17% in May on Iran peace talks. If the jobs market is also cooling, the case for a rate cut builds fast.

📈 Strong print above 150K → resilient economy → USD rallies, Gold dips
📊 In-line 100–150K → steady, no surprises → markets trade the FOMC instead
📉 Below 80K → slowdown fears → USD drops, Gold spikes, rate cut talk returns
Watch Gold, DXY, and EUR/USD the moment the number drops.

📅 Calendar → https://www.ncmfinancials.com/economic-calendar

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

04/06/2026

5 Markets to watch this week 📋
1️⃣ NFP Friday — the most-watched employment report
2️⃣ Oil levels — OPEC follow-through from last month
3️⃣ DXY direction — dollar strength/weakness sets the tone
4️⃣ EUR/USD at resistance — breakout or rejection?
5️⃣ Gold range-bound — waiting for a catalyst
Which one matters most to YOUR portfolio? 👇
Market news → https://www.ncmfinancials.com/market-news

02/06/2026

Back from Eid? Here are 3 things to check before your first trade ✅

1️⃣ Check overnight gaps on your open positions — markets may have moved during the break
2️⃣ Review this week's economic calendar — NFP is on Friday
3️⃣ Adjust your stop-losses if markets shifted

Don't rush. The market will be here tomorrow too.

📅 Calendar → link in bio

01/06/2026

Markets are back. Here is what moved while you were away 📈

🥇 Gold: $4,540 — held steady during Eid. Down just 0.8% for May. Iran ceasefire extension talks keeping it range-bound between $4,488 and $4,595.

🛢️ Oil: the big mover. WTI crashed to $87 on Friday — lowest in 6 weeks. Down 17% in May. Why? Reports that the US and Iran agreed to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen Hormuz. Trump has not approved yet.

💱 EUR/USD: 1.1750 — flat below 1.18. Dollar holding as the Fed stays on hold.

📊 S&P 500: 7,580 — new all-time high. Closed May at its strongest level ever.

This week: NFP on Friday. First jobs report under new Fed Chair Warsh.

What is your first trade this week? 👇
📅 Calendar → https://www.ncmfinancials.com/economic-calendar

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.