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14/11/2014

"How the Market Reacts to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index"

All else being equal, when the consumer sentiment index comes in higher than expected this is bullish for the US Dollar. Consumer spending represents over 3/4th’s of the US economy so the consumer’s confidence in the existing economic environment is very important to the overall economy and therefore markets. If consumer confidence comes in higher than expected then the US Fed will be more comfortable that their easy money policies are working and less likely to increase stimulus. This is bullish for the US Dollar. When consumer confidence comes in lower than expected, all else being equal this should cause the US Dollar to weaken. The reason why is that this will cause the Fed to be less confident that their easy money policies are working and make them more likely to increase stimulus than would otherwise be the case. This is bearish for the US Dollar.

HAPPY TRADING

14/11/2014

Looking @ the result of yesterdays initial jobless claims, the actual figures were 290K, meaning as from the analysis below, short position on EUR/USD and long position on USD/JPY, we are enjoying a lots of profits from those trades and still a lots of EUR events coming up for the day. eg) German and Europe GDP coming up @ 09:00, also the important event is @ 16:55 the US MICHIGANCONSUMER SENTIMENT

13/11/2014

Initial jobless claims for the US @ 15H30 with a previous of 278K and a forecast of 280k, we have analysed and traded this event a lots of times, we know what to do now:

Actual >/= 280K = buy USD while the opposite is true
Actual

12/11/2014

Its wednesday and we are back with the event of the day:

UK unemployment rate figures coming out at 11:30 am with:

previous of 6% and a forecast of 5.9%, a 0.1% decline.

Actual > 6% = sell GBP
Actual

10/11/2014

After last week thursday and friday's interesting events the markert is quite again until the wednesday, lets be lazy, relaxed which is good as it negate over-trading but i must say the CANADIAN DOLLAR did wonders last week friday with the UNEMPLOYMENT RATES @ 15H30 mmh that was fantastic.

07/11/2014

Change in Non-farm Payrolls

Monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labor to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilizes interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely.

Unemployment Rate

The percentage of people registered as unemployed in the United States. The figure is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals in the labor force by the total labor force. Where the headline figure Change in Non-Farm Payrolls generally moves the market upon release, the Unemployment Rate serves as the most popular snap-shot figure for current labor conditions in the US.

The unemployment figure can give insight into the economy’s production, consumption, earnings, and consumer sentiment. A lower unemployment rate equates to increased expenditure, as more people have jobs and wages to spend. Increased expenditure encourages economic growth, which can spark inflation pressures. Conversely, high levels of unemployment signal economic instability and weakened demand.

06/11/2014

14:45 EUR interest rates decision/announcement @ 0.05% with a forecast of 0.05%.

Actual >0.05 = long position EUR/USD
Actual 0.05% will bring confidence to the EUR.

05/11/2014

NZ/USD long positions can now be closed from the New Zealand unemployment figures last night @ 23:45 where the:

Previous = 5.6% and Forecast = 5.5% and Actual = 5.4%.
which gave us +/- 600 pips.

04/11/2014

The results for the RBA = 2,5% and should you had traded on the direction of the trend you must have closed your deal now as a retrace is starting to form.

03/11/2014

05:30 am on the 04th-Nov- 2014 RBA Rates announcement.

Previous and forecast = 2,5%
Actual > 2,5% = Buy AUD
Actual < 2,5% = Sell AUD
Actual = 2.5% = Trade the trend

HAPPY TRADING FOR TOMORROW.

31/10/2014

The FED did it: they finished the QE program and the USD turned sharply to the upside while metals fell. Stocks actually did not go far, so we still see the uptrend in play.

The USD is up across the board, as the USD index broke above 86.10 swing resistance, so we assume that the price is underway back to October highs, which means that other major currencies should suffer.

On EURUSD we see sharp decline from 1.2768 that should be an impulse so we will continue to look even lower, but after a three wave rally that can make a pullback to 1.2612-1.2652 resistance area. We could be turning to bullish view only if the price goes back above 1.2700 in impulsive fashion.

HAPPY TRADING

09/10/2014

UK INTEREST RATE RESULT CAME OUT @ 0.5%, THEREFORE
WE ARE FOLLOWING THE TREND WITH THE GBP LONG POSITION FROM A SUPPORT LEVEL OF 1.6169

HAPPY TRADING.

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