27/10/2025
Capitec shines, Pick n Pay stumbles - lessons for SA investors.
South Africaโs market continues to separate the winners from the laggards. In this monthโs Diamonds & Dogs, William Meyer unpacks why Capitec remains a core holding, and why Pick n Pay still looks high-risk.
๐ Diamond - Capitec (Buy)
- Headline earnings up 26% (H1 FY26); ROE at 31%.
- Growth engines beyond banking: value-added services, insurance/fintech (Capitec Connect), and a fast-growing business-banking arm.
- Scale matters: 25m+ clients enable powerful cross-sell and data-driven expansion.
๐ถ Dog - Pick n Pay (Sell)
- Guides โ28% to โ34% HEPS for H1; turnaround relies on Boxer conversions targeting breakeven only by FY28.
- R3.2bn net loss in 2024 and continued market-share pressure; the R12.5bn Boxer IPO + rights issue provides only temporary relief amid material ex*****on risk.
What this means for portfolios
Quality, ex*****on, and runway still win in a tough macro. We favour compounders with clear growth vectors and disciplined capital allocation, and avoid structures needing perfect ex*****on to survive.
Read the full analysis here ๐ https://www.fenestrasa.com/capitec-shines-while-pick-n-pay-struggles/
If you are not happy with your portfolio performance or would like a second opinion, please do not hesitate to contact Fenestra for a free, independent, objective and confidential review of your portfolio. William Meyer โ 0796244031.
Capitec delivers stellar growth while Pick n Pay seems to slump. Read Fenestra Asset Managementโs October stock insights and expert portfolio advice.