https://www.vietcap.com.vn/mo-tai-khoan?language=en&ref=khangnlx

Vnindex English, 16th Floor Doji Tower Building, 81-83-85 Ham Nghi Street , District 1, HCMC, Hanoi (2026)

04/06/2025

BREAKING: US MADE 'TOUGH' REQUEST TO VIETNAM

- Vietnam Trade Talks: The U.S. has presented Vietnam with a long list of tough demands in tariff negotiations, including reducing reliance on Chinese industrial goods imports.

- Impact on Vietnam: These requests could challenge Vietnam's economy, which relies heavily on imports from China for its manufacturing industry.

- Booming Trade: Vietnam's exports to the U.S. have nearly tripled since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, but imports from China have also increased significantly.

- US Criticism: The U.S. has accused Vietnam of being a waypoint for Chinese goods destined for the U.S., with goods labeled "Made in Vietnam" despite insufficient added value.

- Vietnam's Response: Hanoi has launched a crackdown on illegal transhipment of goods and has shown willingness to reduce non-tariff barriers and import more U.S. goods

27/05/2025

BANKING SECTOR: DRAFT LAW RELATED TO HANDLING COLLATERAL (INCLUDING MORTGAGED REAL ESTATE)

Key points of the draft amendment to the Law on Credit Institutions related to the codification of the contents of Resolution 42 (2017) on handling bad debts include:

(1) Codifying the right of credit institutions to seize collateral (including conditions and procedures for seizing assets and the scope of authorization for seizure).

(2) Codifying regulations on limiting the distraint of assets currently serving as collateral for non-performing loans at credit institutions.

(3) Codifying regulations on the return of collateral used as evidence in criminal cases, or as exhibits or instruments of administrative violations (after completion of evidence verification procedures and when deemed not to affect the handling of the case) to the secured party (such as credit institutions).

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) submitted this to the National Assembly on May 20th. It is expected that the National Assembly will vote to pass it on June 17th.
Impact Assessment:

The codification of Resolution 42 into the Law on Credit Institutions is expected to strengthen the legal framework, helping banks to handle non-performing loans more effectively (including the sale of real estate collateral) => increasing the supply of real estate. In addition, freeing up bank capital currently frozen in mortgaged assets and minimizing bad debt handling costs will also support bank liquidity => reducing capital mobilization pressure, helping to maintain stable interest rates to stimulate credit growth (including real estate business and home loans).

Regarding regulations on distrained assets, these provisions initially create legal flexibility for banks to handle assets. However, the short-term handling of these assets will also be affected by other factors (e.g., market valuation, waiting time for processing to determine the extent of involvement...).

𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵:
𝘛: (84 28) 3914 3588 | 𝘔: (84) 969 326 845
𝘌: 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨.𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘯@𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯 | 𝘞: 𝘸𝘸𝘸.𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯
16𝘵𝘩 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘳, 𝘋𝘰𝘫𝘪 𝘛𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨, 81-83-85 𝘏𝘢𝘮 𝘕𝘨𝘩𝘪 𝘚𝘵., 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵 1, 𝘏𝘊𝘔𝘊, 𝘝𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘯𝘢𝘮

12/05/2025

VIETNAM EARNING UPDATE - Q1 2025 EARNINGS BROADLY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

Aggregate Q1 2025 NPAT-MI for our coverage universe (including stocks listed on UpCOM, HNX and HOSE) increased 7% YoY and achieved 23% of our full-year 2025 forecast. Aggregate Q1 2025 NPAT-MI for our HSX-listed coverage increased 8% YoY, fulfilling 22% of our 2025 forecast.

Sectors’ performance in Q1 2025:
The Industrial Parks sector was a significant driver, boasting an exceptional 96% YoY NPAT increase and achieving 30% of its annual forecast. Power & Water also showed strength with a 27% YoY NPAT rise. The Financials sector demonstrated healthy growth in the first quarter of 2025, with Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) increasing by 10% year-over-year. This performance aligned the sector with expectations, achieving 22% of its full-year 2025 NPAT forecast. Several other key sectors, including Industrials (+19% YoY), Real Estate (+12% YoY), and Materials (+11% YoY), demonstrated growth but slightly underperformed in terms of earnings completion rate. The Consumer sector grew by a modest 3% YoY. Conversely, the Oil & Gas sector experienced a substantial 24% YoY NPAT decline, reaching only 18% of its annual target. The Transportation sector also faced a downturn with a 10% YoY NPAT decrease, though it notably achieved 40% of its full-year forecast, suggesting potential for future recovery or conservative initial projections.

Outlook:
Several factors may underpin near-term market sentiment in Vietnam, though the outcome of the US-Vietnam tariff negotiations remain a critical overhang. We anticipate a temporary boost to Vietnamese exports, evidenced by a 34.0% YoY surge to the US in April (25.1% YoY in 4M 2025), as firms possibly front-load inventory purchases during the current 90-day deferral on new US reciprocal tariffs. Concurrently, the May 5th launch of the Korea Exchange (KRX) trading system represents a significant upgrade to market infrastructure, potentially enhancing trading efficiency and bolstering investor confidence over time. Additionally, the 9th National Assembly session, which also commenced in May, holds promise for key institutional reforms, including discussions on constitutional amendments and provincial mergers, which could strengthen governance frameworks. Despite these potential domestic tailwinds, investor caution is warranted. The market will likely remain highly sensitive to developments in the pivotal US-Vietnam trade discussions, the resolution of which will significantly influence near-term market direction and could overshadow these positive catalysts. Although the Q1 results are in-line with our expectations, it is noteworthy that due to the 90-day tariff pause, the negative impact on companies and sectors are not materially seen in the Q1 results. As our 2025F forecasts for companies still lean toward more positive tariff negotiation outcomes, any worse-than-expected results can post potential downside risk to our projections.

𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵:
𝘛: (84 28) 3914 3588 | 𝘔: (84) 969 326 845
𝘌: 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨.𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘯@𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯 | 𝘞: 𝘸𝘸𝘸.𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯
16𝘵𝘩 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘳, 𝘋𝘰𝘫𝘪 𝘛𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨, 81-83-85 𝘏𝘢𝘮 𝘕𝘨𝘩𝘪 𝘚𝘵., 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵 1, 𝘏𝘊𝘔𝘊, 𝘝𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘯𝘢𝘮

08/05/2025

FED HOLDS INTEREST RATES STEADY AMID ECONOMIC RISKS AND TRADE TENSIONS

The FOMC meeting concluded last night with a decision to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%–4.5%. This marks the third consecutive time the Fed has kept interest rates at this level, reflecting caution in the face of rising economic risks, particularly from the new tariff policies of the Trump administration. Although Trump has called for interest rate cuts, Chairman Powell emphasized that the Fed operates independently and will only adjust policy based on economic data. The Fed is not expected to adjust interest rates until at least July, unless there is a significant weakening in the labor market or a sharp decline in inflation.

- Jerome Powell warned that high tariffs could lead to increased inflation, slower growth, and higher unemployment – factors characteristic of stagflation.

- Q1 2025 GDP decreased by 0.3%, largely due to businesses increasing imports before new tariffs took effect.

- April saw the addition of 177,000 new jobs, indicating that the labor market remains strong.

- The consumer confidence index fell by 11% in April, reaching its second-lowest level since 1952.

===========================================
𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵:
𝘛: (84 28) 3914 3588 | 𝘔: (84) 969 326 845
𝘌: 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨.𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘯@𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯 | 𝘞: 𝘸𝘸𝘸.𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯
16𝘵𝘩 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘳, 𝘋𝘰𝘫𝘪 𝘛𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨, 81-83-85 𝘏𝘢𝘮 𝘕𝘨𝘩𝘪 𝘚𝘵., 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵 1, 𝘏𝘊𝘔𝘊, 𝘝𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘯𝘢𝘮

08/05/2025

OVERVIEW OF TARIFF NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND UNITED STATES

The first round of reciprocal tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the United States, held on May 7th, 2025, in Washington, achieved "initial positive results" in a spirit of "harmonizing interests and sharing risks," as emphasized by both sides. While specific figures for tariff adjustments were not disclosed, both parties agreed to continue with technical discussions and further exchanges in the near future.

1. General Outcomes of the May 7th Session

- Initial Positive Assessment: Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh stated at the opening of the negotiations that Vietnam had "calmly and proactively implemented various timely and flexible response measures, achieving initial positive results."

- Technical Dialogue Focus: Both sides concentrated on clarifying the mechanism for determining product origin and combating transshipment fraud to ensure that "Made in Vietnam" goods have substantial value added within Vietnam.

- No Specific Figures Released: Neither the USTR nor Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced new tariff rates. They only agreed to maintain the temporary 10% tariff suspension for 90 days and consider reducing high tariff rates (up to 46%) to a lower threshold.

2. Commitments and Proposals from Both Sides

2.1 Vietnam

- Stricter Origin Inspections: Vietnam committed to enhancing controls on shipments from China to Vietnam to prevent illegal transshipment.

- Boosting Imports from the US: Vietnam will continue to purchase more agricultural products, LNG, aircraft, and high-tech components from the United States to balance bilateral trade.
Expedited VAT Refunds: The Ministry of Finance will accelerate the value-added tax (VAT) refund process for businesses, including American companies operating in Vietnam.

2.2 United States

- Detailed Negotiation Schedule: The USTR proposed a timeline for subsequent negotiation rounds, anticipated in May and June, including both in-person and virtual sessions.

- Consideration of Tariff Reduction to 22–28%: According to internal sources, the US side suggested the possibility of adjusting reciprocal tariffs to a range of 22–28% if Vietnam can demonstrate convincing reforms in origin control.

- Cooperation in Combating Trade Fraud: The United States emphasized the importance of cooperation in investigating and addressing fraudulent activities and document falsification aimed at illicitly benefiting from tariffs.

3. Next Steps

- Continuation of Technical Negotiation Rounds: The two negotiating teams are expected to reconvene in late May, focusing on working groups dedicated to origin, specific tariff rates, and monitoring measures.

- Reporting to Senior Leadership: The outcomes of the technical rounds will be reported to the Prime Minister of Vietnam and the United States Trade Representative for final decisions.

- Maintenance of 10% Temporary Suspension: The 10% temporary tariff suspension will remain in effect until a final agreement is reached or the 90-day period expires.

In summary, although specific tariff figures have not yet been announced, the May 7th negotiation session commenced favorably with an "initial positive" assessment and a commitment to continued dialogue aimed at achieving a mutually beneficial tariff agreement.

𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵:
𝘛: (84 28) 3914 3588 | 𝘔: (84) 969 326 845
𝘌: 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨.𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘯@𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯 | 𝘞: 𝘸𝘸𝘸.𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯
16𝘵𝘩 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘳, 𝘋𝘰𝘫𝘪 𝘛𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨, 81-83-85 𝘏𝘢𝘮 𝘕𝘨𝘩𝘪 𝘚𝘵., 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵 1, 𝘏𝘊𝘔𝘊, 𝘝𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘯𝘢𝘮

07/05/2025

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2025

Several factors could support market sentiment in May including:

(1) production and exports may benefit in the near term, as US firms are likely to front-load inventory purchases from Vietnam during the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs (exports to the US surged 34% YoY in April and 25.1% YoY in 4M 2025);

(2) the long-awaited Korea Exchange (KRX) trading system officially went live on May 5, potentially improving market infrastructure and investor confidence;

(3) the 9th session of the National Assembly commenced on May 5 and is expected to deliver key institutional breakthroughs, including discussions on constitutional amendments and provincial mergers.

However, investor caution may persist as markets await the outcome of the tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US

𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵:
𝘛: (84 28) 3914 3588 | 𝘔: (84) 969 326 845
𝘌: 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨.𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘯@𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯 | 𝘞: 𝘸𝘸𝘸.𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯
16𝘵𝘩 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘳, 𝘋𝘰𝘫𝘪 𝘛𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨, 81-83-85 𝘏𝘢𝘮 𝘕𝘨𝘩𝘪 𝘚𝘵., 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵 1, 𝘏𝘊𝘔𝘊, 𝘝𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘯𝘢𝘮

05/05/2025

VIETNAM MACRO NOTE - LABOR MARKET REMAINS STABLE BUT UNCERTAINTY LIES AHEAD

- The labor force grew YoY despite slipping from the peak recorded in Q4 2024. According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s labor force is estimated at 52.9 million, a decline of 230,700 people or -0.4% QoQ, yet an increase of around 532,000 people or +1.0% YoY.

- The services sector continued leading in job creation. Total employment reached 51.9 million, a decrease of approximately 234,000 people or -0.4% QoQ, but an increase of 532,100 people or +1.0% YoY. Of the total employment, employment in the services sector rose to 21.1 million (+100,200 QoQ & 574,400 YoY), the industry and construction sector employed 17.3 million people (-287,100 QoQ & + 262,600 YoY), while the agriculture, forestry & fishery sector declined to 13.5 million employees (-47,100 QoQ & -304,900 YoY).

- Informal employment continued increasing while formal employment fell. In Q1 2025, the number of informal employment increased by around 200,000 people QoQ to 33.4 million (+123,800 YoY) while the number of formal employment declined by around 433,900 people QoQ to 18.5 million (+408,400 YoY). As a result, the informal employment rate/total employment rose 0.7% QoQ to 64.3% (-0.5% YoY).

- The unemployment rate was little changed. In Q1 2025, unemployment and underemployment were 1.07 million and 870,900 people, respectively, with the unemployment rate standing at 2.02% (+0.01 pts QoQ & -0.02 pts YoY) and the underemployment rate was at 1.68% (+0.04 pts QoQ & -0.34 pts YoY).

- The income of all sectors continued to improve. Average income rose 1.6% QoQ and 9.5% YoY to VND8.3mn/month in Q1 2025. Among all sectors, the services sector remained the highest paying at VND9.9mn/month (+1.7% QoQ; +9.2% YoY). Meanwhile, the average income of the industrial & construction sector and the agriculture, forestry & fishery sector were VND9.1mn/month (+1.4% QoQ; +8.2% YoY) and VND4.9mn/month (+1.3% QoQ; +9.5% YoY), respectively.

- Business exits outpaced entries. In Q1 2025, there were 75,369 firms (+24.5% QoQ) joining the market, including newly established enterprises and enterprises resuming operations. However, 78,011 enterprises (+47.2% QoQ) exited the market resulting in a net exit of 2,642 enterprises vs a net exit of 14,130 enterprises in Q1 2024.

- The streamlining of the State apparatus, including the merger of central ministries and agencies and the consolidation of provinces will lead to a large number of layoffs. The Minister of Home Affairs estimated that around 100,000 Government employees could be affected by the merger of central ministries. In addition, the Minister noted that the consolidation of provinces could lift this figure to 200,000 or more. Therefore, from now until September 15 (the expected date for the newly merged provinces to become operational), the number of people exiting the public sector could negatively affect the labor force, as many people may not be able to transition into private sector employment.

- The US reciprocal tariff could negatively impact the labor market if negotiation outcomes fall short of expectations. According to the US announcement on April 2, Vietnamese goods are subject to a 46% reciprocal tariff from the US, its largest export partner, accounting for 30% of Vietnam’s total exports in 2024. Vietnam should negotiate during the 90-day pause to bring the tariff to the lowest level or around the level to be applied to its competitors. In Q2, widespread layoffs are unlikely given that US companies could accelerate purchases from Vietnam during the 90-day window. However, the greater risk lies in Q3 — if negotiations between Vietnam and the US fail to deliver a favorable outcome, firms could begin laying off workers due to declining orders from the US.

𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵:
𝘛: (84 28) 3914 3588 | 𝘔: (84) 969 326 845
𝘌: 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨.𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘯@𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯 | 𝘞: 𝘸𝘸𝘸.𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯
16𝘵𝘩 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘳, 𝘋𝘰𝘫𝘪 𝘛𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨, 81-83-85 𝘏𝘢𝘮 𝘕𝘨𝘩𝘪 𝘚𝘵., 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵 1, 𝘏𝘊𝘔𝘊, 𝘝𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘯𝘢𝘮

21/04/2025

STOCKPICK
PLC: Petrolimex Petrochemical (PLC)

𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐭, 𝐥𝐮𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐩𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐝𝐨𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬

1. 2025 Guidance

PBT: VND140bn (2x vs 2024A; flat vs 2024 initial guidance; 93% of our 2025F). From 2010–2024, actual PBT averaged 101% fulfillment of initial guidance.
Breakdown by segment (pre-consolidation):
- Lubricants: VND110bn PBT (+3% YoY) – a steady and reliable contributor.
- Asphalt: VND43bn (+310% YoY) – an aggressive rebound target with public disbursement.
- Chemicals: VND2bn (vs 2024 net loss of ~VND46bn) – improvement expected but still challenging.

2. Preliminary Q1 2025 results, in line with our full-year forecast.

The preliminary Q1 2025 PBT of VND40bn (+90% YoY; +33% QoQ; equivalent to 26% of our full-year forecast), strongly supporting our full-year projection.
- Lubricants: VND28bn (26% of 2025G), with volume also at 26% of guidance. Sales through Petrolimex channels rose 9% YoY: non-Petrolimex retail is up 20% YoY. The sales channel mix of Petrolimex: Non-Petrolimex slightly shifted to 75:25 vs 72:28 in 2024.
- Asphalt: VND11bn (26% of 2025G), with volume at 25% of the company’s target. Market share recovered to 29.5%.
- Chemicals: VND0.9bn (technically on track for the VND2bn target), but Q2 is at risk due to potential weak demand for industrial clients and falling oil prices.

3. Dividend:

- 2024 dividend: Cash dividend of VND500/share (yield 2.2%), in line with our projection.
- 2025 dividend: PLX plans to pay a dividend rate of at least of 12% (cash or stock not yet determined), higher than our current forecast of VND1,000/share (yield 4.4%).

4. Strategic stake sale:

Per PLX’s 2022 EGM materials, PLX has a plan to divest its PLC stake from 79% to a maximum of 51% by end-2025. A capital raise is also under consideration. Both scenarios target strategic shareholder onboarding and a final decision is expected in Q2.

5. US Reciprocal tariff impacts on the lubricants and chemicals segments:

FX volatility remains a key concern. PLC imports nearly all its raw materials, so any VND depreciation could materially raise costs.
- Lubricant segment: Domestic industrial lubricant demand may also weaken if manufacturing activity slows.
- Chemicals segment: This is the most vulnerable segment. PLC’s major clients in this segment are exporters (i.e., footwear, wood processing), who could scale back production if orders from the US decline. This would reduce demand for solvents and coatings. We are modeling a loss for the chemicals segment in our 2025 forecast.

6. Asphalt outlook – riding public investment momentum

- PLC views the asphalt segment as a defensive pillar amid macro uncertainty, underpinned by Vietnam’s accelerated public investment. 2025 marks the final year of the 2021–2025 medium-term public investment plan, in which PLC anticipates the Government to achive a disbursement target of at least 95%, supporting GDP growth of 8% amid economic headwinds. For the Ministry of Transport, the assigned capital is VND87tn (+15% YoY), and we assume a 96% completion rate, implying actual disbursement of VND84tn (+19% YoY).
- PLC targets a 25–35% market share in major road construction projects and is actively supplying asphalt across all key infrastructure categories: expressways, regional and inter-regional connectors, and upgrades of national and provincial highways, solidifying its strong positioning within Vietnam’s roadway networks.

𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵:
𝘛: (84 28) 3914 3588 | 𝘔: (84) 969 326 845
𝘌: 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨.𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘯@𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯 | 𝘞: 𝘸𝘸𝘸.𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯
16𝘵𝘩 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘳, 𝘋𝘰𝘫𝘪 𝘛𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨, 81-83-85 𝘏𝘢𝘮 𝘕𝘨𝘩𝘪 𝘚𝘵., 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵 1, 𝘏𝘊𝘔𝘊, 𝘝𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘯𝘢𝘮

18/04/2025

MARKET WRAP FOR 17 APR, 2025: VNINDEX ADVANCES 0.6%

The VN-Index advanced 0.6% (+6.9 pts) to close the trading day at 1,217.3. After declining for two consecutive trading days, the index rebounded with strong gains from blue chips in a variety of sectors. Across the index, there were 261 gainers, 174 laggards, and 89 unchanged stocks. Total trading volume increased from the previous trading day to USD834.7mn.

* Most banks saw their share prices increase, as TCB (+0.8%), MBB (+0.4%), and STB (+0.4%) advanced and LPB (+2.9%) surged. VCB (-2.0%) and VPB (-1.5%) plunged, and BID (-0.4%) also declined.

* In real estate, VIC (+4.6%) and KBC (+4.4%) jumped, while VPI (-4.4%) and SIP (-2.3%) sharply fell.

* Financial services stocks performed well, with SSI (+0.4%), VCI (+2.2%), VND (+1.3%), and HCM (+0.6%) rising.

* Other notable gainers across sectors included tech company FPT (+1.4%), rubber producer GVR (+2.9%), food & beverage conglomerate MSN (+1.6%), airlines HVN (+6.5%) and VJC (+3.0%), and oil & gas company PLX (+2.6%).

15/04/2025

That’s why we witnessed a market fall today

15/04/2025

𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 - 𝐐𝟏 𝐆𝐃𝐏 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥 𝐒𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟗

Q1 GDP at Highest Level Since 2019: Vietnam's Q1 GDP growth reached 6.93% YoY (Q1/2024: +5.98% YoY) – the highest in the past 5 years. This result aligns with our expectations. However, this growth rate is still lower than the government's Q1 target of 7.7%, posing a challenge to achieving the 8% growth target for 2025.

- 𝐒𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐝 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 in Q1/2025 Led by the Manufacturing and Processing Sector: In Q1/2025, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 7.9% YoY (Q1/2024: +5.7% YoY), mainly thanks to a 9.5% YoY increase in the manufacturing sector (Q1/2024: +5.9% YoY). The March PMI report showed an increase in domestic orders, suggesting that production could be supported. Simultaneously, import turnover surged by 19% YoY in March and 17% YoY in Q1/2025, indicating that companies are actively purchasing input materials for production. Additionally, the 90-day suspension of countervailing duties is likely to boost export orders to the US as US companies may accelerate inventory purchases before tariffs are applied in July.

- 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐢𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐕𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 in March Continues to Support Retail Revenue: Total retail sales of goods and services in Q1/2025 increased by 9.9% YoY (up from +8.6% YoY in Q1/2024), partly supported by a large number of international visitors, reaching 6 million in Q1/2025. International visitors, especially from China, may continue to support retail revenue. To further stimulate tourism and economic growth, the Prime Minister issued Directive 34/CT-TTg on April 10th, emphasizing measures to promote tourism development. In addition, the Hung Kings Temple Festival on April 7th and the long holiday from April 30th to May 4th are expected to boost demand for domestic transportation and consumer services.

- 𝐒𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐛𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 in Q1/2025: State budget revenue and expenditure reached VND 721.3 trillion (+29.3% YoY) and VND 428.2 trillion (+11.6% YoY), respectively fulfilling 36.7% (a positive sign indicating that state budget revenue may continue to exceed the target in 2025) and 16.8% of the full-year plan, resulting in a fiscal surplus of VND 293.1 trillion. Due to the slow disbursement of public investment in Q1/2025, the Prime Minister issued Official Dispatch 32/CD-TTg directing the Ministry of Finance to resolve bottlenecks and accelerate the disbursement progress. Furthermore, the government has raised the disbursement target to 100% of the public investment budget in 2025 (up from 95%) to achieve the GDP growth target of 8% for the year.

- 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐅𝐃𝐈 𝐢𝐧 𝐐𝟏 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐒𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟐: Registered FDI surged by 34.7% YoY to US$11 billion in Q1/2025 – the highest Q1 figure we have recorded since 2012. Meanwhile, disbursed FDI increased by 7.2% YoY to US$5.0 billion. Despite the good growth in Q1/2025, US countervailing duties may affect Vietnam's FDI prospects. Although temporarily suspended for 90 days, some registered and disbursed FDI may slow down, especially from investors focused on exporting to the US, as they await the outcome of negotiations.

- 𝐒𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐝 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐖𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞: According to the Vietnam General Department of Customs, in Q1/2025, export turnover increased by 10.6% YoY to US$102.8 billion, while import turnover surged by 17% to US$99.7 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of US$3.2 billion (compared to a surplus of US$7.8 billion in Q1/2024). The decrease in new export orders in the latest PMI report signals risks to Vietnam's export sector growth. The general US tariff of 10% may limit US import demand, but Vietnam may gain market share from China due to higher US tariffs on Chinese goods. Additionally, US companies may increase inventory replenishment from Vietnam during the 90-day tariff suspension, boosting the export sector in the short term.

𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵:
𝘛: (84 28) 3914 3588 | 𝘔: (84) 969 326 845
𝘌: 𝘒𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨.𝘯𝘨𝘶𝘺𝘦𝘯@𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯 | 𝘞: 𝘸𝘸𝘸.𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘤𝘢𝘱.𝘤𝘰𝘮.𝘷𝘯
16𝘵𝘩 𝘍𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘳, 𝘋𝘰𝘫𝘪 𝘛𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘉𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨, 81-83-85 𝘏𝘢𝘮 𝘕𝘨𝘩𝘪 𝘚𝘵., 𝘋𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘵 1, 𝘏𝘊𝘔𝘊, 𝘝𝘪𝘦𝘵𝘯𝘢𝘮

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