Richseafinance Data, Cabritaberg (2026)

09/03/2022

DBG.FX: Multiple positives support stronger gold prices. Gold continues to rise this month.
News broke over the weekend that the United States is working with European allies on the possibility of banning Russian oil imports. At the beginning of the new week, the gold price broke through the 2000 mark in one fell swoop. Gold has the potential to shine amid the turmoil amid growing concerns about rising inflation and slowing economic growth.
The heightened uncertainty and cautious atmosphere caused by geopolitical risks continued to accelerate investors' risk aversion. Investors flocked to Treasuries, pushing yields lower - ultimately making zero-yielding gold look more attractive. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.67%, its lowest level since early January 2022.

09/03/2022

U.S., UK ban Russian oil imports, oil prices will really soar to $300?

The situation between Russia and Ukraine still shows no signs of slowing down. Although Russia announced the opening of a humanitarian corridor in Ukraine today, Russia and Ukraine have not yet set a date for the next negotiation. There is little chance of a truce between the two sides, and the market risk aversion continues to rise. After the shock, it closed down. Asian stock markets continued to decline this morning, and gold and the dollar continued to strengthen.
Russia sees time, EU in dilemma
Over the past period of time, countries around the world, including Western countries, have been calling for the outbreak of this war to be related to the lack of sanctions by Western countries.
After Russia officially sent troops to Ukraine, Western countries initially only imposed economic sanctions on important Russian political and economic figures, and then officially excluded Russian banks from SWIFT, which were obviously escalated by the pressure of world public opinion. Until today, the United States and the United Kingdom finally announced the imposition of crude oil import sanctions on Russia. This sanctions has actually been the focus of public opinion in the past week, and it is also the real pain point of the Russian economy.
For Russia, the decision to send troops to Ukraine in the winter of 2022 is closely related to the current crude oil price just at the high point of the past 10 years. Since Europe is heavily dependent on Russia's energy imports, and high energy prices provide Russia with a relatively high price. With a strong economic cornerstone, Russia can be said to have seen the right time to send troops, trapping Europe in a dilemma.
But the problem is that in the end, both the United States and the United Kingdom announced sanctions on Russia's real economic lifeline, obviously leaving the problem to the EU to deal with unilaterally.
And if the situation in Russia and Ukraine does not calm down or even worsen for some time to come, the pressure of public opinion on the EU to impose stronger sanctions or even send troops will be even greater.
Although Russia is very important to Europe's energy supply, due to the pressure of public opinion, it is not impossible for crude oil prices to rise further to US$200-300 per barrel in the short term if sanctions are really implemented.
Technically, from the monthly and weekly charts, after US crude oil broke through the $120 mark, the next key resistance is already at a record high of $140, while the key support below is at $105, which seems to be supported by fundamentals. The The price of crude oil will hover above $100 for some time to come.

03/03/2022

Ukrainian-Russian conflict unabated, but gold bulls cut

Summary of yesterday:

On the previous trading day (3/2), gold closed down, opening at 1945.12, rising to 1947.96 in the middle, and finally closing at 1928.72. In today's (3/3) opening, there was a shock, and the price was hovering around the 1930 mark.

Fundamental analysis:

The safe-haven nature of gold has an unexpected response to the conflict in the Ukrainian-Russian War. At the same time, the US bond interest rate fell to 1.7%, and the price of gold was opposite to the real interest rate. Therefore, under the influence of the nominal interest rate and inflation expectations, the real interest rate was jointly depressed, and the performance of gold was supported.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict seems to be unable to be quickly subsided in the short term, and investment safe-haven transactions still dominate the trend of the precious metal market. At the same time, the market began to pay attention to the US non-farm payrolls report for February to be released on Friday night. The current market forecast is 450,000 people, compared with the previous value of 467,000.

The latest announcement (3/3) of gold ETF holdings was +7.84 tons to 1050.22 tons. It has been raised continuously since March, and is still firmly above the 1,000-ton mark. It should be noted that the gold ETF holdings are lagging indicators, and there will be a situation where the price has already risen, and the holdings will continue to rise; this is the case.

Technical Analysis:

At present, the daily trend is still dominated by bulls, but it has hit 1950, the strong resistance above and the previous strong resistance. At the same time, it closed a high and long shadow candle last week, which has the opportunity to drive the price to reverse and fall. Although it gapped higher on Monday, it fell again after hitting 1950 yesterday, indicating that the strong resistance of 1950 still exists, and there is an opportunity to show a short range at any time.

You can first notice that the price touches the resistance of 1950, and then look at the support of 1905. There will be a profit space of 4,500 US dollars in single-hand trading.

today's advice

Direction: Sell

Admission: 1950.0

Target: 1905.0

Profitable space: 4500

03/03/2022

New Zealand's interest rate hike tone confirmed, strategists help you layout Australia and New Zealand trading opportunities

New Zealand's labour market and inflation have unexpectedly moved higher since the November meeting. The 5.9 per cent inflation figure is almost double the RBNZ's 1-3 per cent target range and is still not at its peak given that higher oil prices and a weaker kiwi have sent petrol prices soaring to $3 a litre in some parts of the country.

The possibility of a 50bps rate hike cannot be ignored; but as the housing market softens and Omicron cases begin to surge, the Fed is expected to opt for a 25bps hike. This morning, Russia decided to send "peacekeeping" troops to two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine. This move shook the market, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's conservative rate hike of 25 basis points was almost a certainty.

The Federal Reserve will revise the OCR interest rate curve through its monetary policy statement, and it is expected that the curve will become steeper in response to the demand for continued interest rate hikes, and the final interest rate will be close to 3%.

In addition, the market will pay close attention to the RBNZ's view on the outlook for the Large Scale Asset Purchase Program (LSAP) bond portfolio and guidance on the size of the balance sheet, especially around how the bank intends to reduce its NZ$50 billion bond portfolio.

Let's take a look at the foreign exchange market. The preferred shorting of AUD/NZD is the first choice for interest rate hike events. As the chart below shows, the cross broke into the top of a solid trend channel near 1.0800.

To take advantage of the possibility of the pair turning lower towards the middle of the 1.0600/1.0550 area trend channel, we would consider selling AUD/NZD on a rally to 1.0740 and placing a closing stop at 1.0825. Profit target locked in 1.0600/1.0550 area.

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