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05/12/2023

Driving stock market volatility: Morgan Stanley warns of fluctuations mid rate cut hopes
Advise waiting for a more opportune entry point to capture a seasonal rally in small caps

Morgan Stanley equity strategists have warned their clients about potential volatility in the stock markets this month due to fluctuating rates.

04/12/2023

Bitcoin wandering in the range

The cryptocurrency market lost another 0.5% of its capitalisation overnight, to 1.2 trillion. Most losses came on Wednesday afternoon, while capitalisation has risen since Thursday morning. Since last May, the market has failed to develop growth when it reaches levels above 1.22.

01/12/2023

China November Caixin Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 (vs. expected at 49.8)
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations, marking a bounce back into expansion

China November Caixin Manufacturing PMI comes in at a huge beat and much better than October:

50.7 to jump back into expansion

expected at 49.8, prior 49.5
Yesterday we had the official PMIs, with manufacturing slipping even deeper into contraction

29/11/2023

OECD sees global growth slowing further but hard landing to be avoided
The organisation slashes global GDP growth for this year, leaves forecast unchanged for next year

🌎 2023 global GDP growth lowered to 2.9% (previously 3.0%)
🌎 2024 global GDP growth unchanged at 2.7%
🌎 2025 global GDP growth seen at 3.0% (first estimate)
🇺🇸 2023 US GDP growth improved to 2.4% (previously 2.2%)
🇺🇸 2024 US GDP growth improved to 1.5% (previously 1.3%)
🇪🇺 2023 Eurozone GDP growth unchanged at 0.6%
🇪🇺 2024 Eurozone GDP growth lowered to 0.9% (previously 1.1%)
🇬🇧 2023 UK GDP growth improved to 0.5% (previously 0.3%)
🇬🇧 2024 UK GDP growth lowered to 0.7% (previously 0.8%)
🇯🇵 2023 Japan GDP growth lowered to 1.7% (previously 1.8%)
🇯🇵 2024 Japan GDP growth unchanged at 1.0%
🇨🇳 2023 China GDP growth improved to 5.2% (previously 5.1%)
🇨🇳 2024 China GDP growth improved to 4.7% (previously 4.6%)

27/11/2023

SNB total sight deposits w.e. 24 November CHF 473.7 bn vs CHF 476.9 bn prior
Latest data released by the SNB - 27 November 2023

Domestic sight deposits CHF 465.3 bn vs CHF 467.7 bn prior
Swiss sight deposits fall in the past week but still sits in the recent range of overall levels seen since the end of October

23/11/2023

ECB releases the accounts of its October 2023 monetary policy meeting

Members argued in favour of keeping the door open for a possible further rate hike
The view was held that all three elements of the reaction function were moving in the right direction
ECB should be ready for further rate hikes if necessary
It could be expected that, based on the current outlook, inflation return to 2% target by 2025
Members agreed to continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions falling due via PEPP
Discussion of an early termination of PEPP reinvestments currently seen as premature
Most of the impact of past rate hikes had yet to materialise
It was generally assumed that the "last mile" of bringing inflation back to target was the most difficult

22/11/2023

Economists predict Bank of Japan will end negative rates policy in 2024
Anticipated shift in monetary policy

Info via a Reuters poll shows that over 80% of surveyed economists expect the Bank of Japan will end its negative rates policy in 2024.

none expect a change at the December BOJ meeting (on the 18th and 19th)
22 of 26 said the BOJ would end the policy by the end of next year
12 opted for the April 25-26 meeting, 2 picked July, 2 went for June and 1 opted for October
remaining 4 chose "2025 or later"

17/11/2023

Japan's Deputy Finance Minister Akazawa promises JPY intervention if excess volatility
Intervention would aim to stabilize the yen and reflect economic fundamentals.

Japan's Deputy Finance Minister Akazawa:

Don't have specific FX level in mind in deciding when to intervene
Any FX intervention will be aimed at arresting excess volatility
We won't intervene just because yen is weakening

16/11/2023

US to enforce oil sanctions on Iran, will reduce Iranian oil exports
President Biden's energy security adviser confirms US will crack down on oil sanctions against Iran

ICYMI, President Joe Biden's energy security adviser Amos Hochstein spoke with Bloomberg News on Wednesday, saying that the US will enforce oil sanctions against Iran amid the renewed conflict in the Middle East, and that will bring down Iran oil exports:

sanctions amounted to more than 1 million barrels a day of oil exports from Iran
"Those numbers will come down"

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