04/03/2022
The first Friday of the month is the time for the closely watched US non-farm payrolls jobs report and the March update comes at a time of rampant US inflation, a trend likely to be made worse by the situation in Ukraine as oil prices climb.
The US Fed meets on 16 March to decide whether to hike US interest rates and whether these numbers for February will have an impact on its thinking is debatable.
The last two sets were stronger than expected with December’s number revised up to 510,000 from 199,000 and January seeing a better than predicted 467,000 new job additions.
Importantly, the average hourly US wage reached $31.63, up 5.7% year-on-year.
The consensus forecast has wavered either side of 400,000 jobs to have been added last month, though more conservative forecasts are around the 350,000 mark.
If the forecast is correct this would be below the recent pace of growth, but still a healthy increase, which, said market analyst Marshall Gittler at BDSwiss, "would give the Fed no reason to doubt that the US is at 'maximum employment'.
“Indeed the slight drop in the number of new jobs might be interpreted as meaning that there are fewer and fewer people left who want to work but can’t find a job," Gittler said, adding that this meant the labour force participation rate (62.2% last time) would be important to keep an eye on too.
“Growth in average hourly earnings is expected to rise further to 5.8% year-on-year from 5.7%, fuelling fears of a wage/price spiral."
He said this was yet another reason for the Federal Reserve to continue with its stated plan to tighten up monetary policy and raise interest rates.
Furthermore, a very strong number could, some say, even trigger the Fed to raise interest rates faster than the expected 25 basis points (bps).
"While several Fed officials have pushed back on this narrative another strong payroll and wages number this week does have the potential to put further pressure on the Fed to go for a 50bps move when they meet later in March," said Michael Hewson at CMC Markets.
Major announcements expected today.