02/12/2026
Economy
Key Points
• January payrolls surprised to the upside yesterday with 130k jobs added and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3%. The better-than-expected payrolls report reinforces Fed officials’ inclination to keep interest rates on hold for now.
• PennyMac announced on Wednesday that it intends to acquire Cenlar Capital for $257.5 million. Cenlar subservices $740 billion in UPB and is the second largest subservicer.
• Mortgage applications were roughly flat last week (? 0.3%) following an 8.9% drop in the previous period. The average 30yr mortgage rate held flat at 6.21%.
January Payrolls:
US payrolls rose in January by the most in more than a year and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market continued to stabilize at the start of 2026. Employers added 130k jobs last month and the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. The pickup in January hiring was led by health care, which added the most jobs since 2020 and accounted for the majority of overall job growth in 2025. Construction and professional and business services also added jobs, while manufacturing saw the first monthly gain in employment in more than a year. Federal government payrolls continued to decline. The BLS is also set to revise payrolls down for 2025 by an estimated 1 million jobs. The revisions will show the deep freeze in the labor market started in mid-2024, and the labor market improved after the Fed started cutting rates in September 2024, only to falter again following increased tariffs in 2025.
MBA Mortgage Applications:
Mortgage applications saw a roughly flat week last week with refinance applications increasing 1.2% and purchase applications declining 2.4%. The flat week follows a 8.9% decline in the previous week which was largely caused by winter weather. The average 30yr mortgage rate held flat at 6.21%. The refinance index increased 1% from the previous week and was 101% higher than the same week one year ago, while refinance activity decreased to 56.4% of total applications. ARM share of activity increased to 8% of total applications, and the FHA share increased by 60 bps to 18.4%.