11/25/2025
Holiday promotions may be arriving earlier than ever, but the real story behind this season isn’t how deep the discounts go. It’s whether consumers feel confident enough to spend in the first place.
So far, the data points in a constructive direction. Jobless claims remain steady, and spending trackers haven’t shown the kind of pullback that would signal a more cautious consumer. When paychecks are stable, households generally continue to participate in the season, even if they make small adjustments to how they shop.
That stability, paired with a potential boost to after-tax income from recent legislation, suggests the outlook for holiday spending, and the broader economy, may be on firmer footing than many expected. Risks are always present, but the health of the labor market is still doing the heavy lifting.
➡️ Want more insights? Check out our latest Weekly Market Commentary: https://bit.ly/4pAhYs5