Agarwood Capital

05/01/2025

We stand at a unique economic juncture. For years, conflicting signals often muddied the waters: strong employment masking weak demand; loose credit despite slowing growth; dovish policy battling rising inflation. These contradictions acted as buffers, often delaying inevitable corrections. Today, that buffer seems gone. The major risk indicators I track encompass a wide range. They include leading indicators like yield curve inversions and manufacturing PMIs....

We stand at a unique economic juncture. For years, conflicting signals often muddied the waters: strong employment masking weak demand; loose credit despite slowing growth; dovish policy battling r…

03/29/2021

18 years ago in 2002, I was fortunate to witness the match between Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan. It was my first time going to an NBA game. It was a home game in Washington, DC; the Wizards led by MJ vs Lakers led by Kobe Bryant.

The game was very close, but the wizards edged the win over the Lakers in the final few seconds. It was in this game that MJ told Kobe he could ‘wear those shoes, but never fulfilled them’. Micheal Jordan’s critique irritated Kobe so much that he stop communicating with his team for two weeks. In the following game against the Wizards, the Lakers won with Kobe’s vengeance of 55 points.
The best highlights of Kobe’s career were not on ESPN, it was early mornings and dark nights when he would practice more than anyone. Mamba Mentality 😢 Rest In Peace Legend
https://agarwoodcapital.com/2020/01/28/what-kobe-bryant-taught-me-as-an-investor-the-work/

18 years ago today, Kobe Bryant & Michael Jordan squared off for the final time. 🐐🐐

Actor John Cusack was courtside for the game & the famous moment went MJ drew a charge on Kobe.

MJ to Kobe: “The whole fu**ing building knew you weren’t Gonna pass.” 😂

Kobe: 55 PTS, 9 3PM, 52 FG%, WIN
MJ: 23 PTS, 4 AST, 50 FG%

HIGHLIGHTS: https://www.instagram.com/p/CM-yXZcBIf9/?igshid=uyhphpitj90d

03/26/2021

I'm an early adapter & knew TSLA is worth more than GM. But $TSLA $3000 evaluation is crazy! And the valuation is possible, possibility in 2040. $Msft was worth $700B in 2000 & again $700B in 2017. History will educate, YOU only Learn Once

03/12/2021

Where are we in the Credit Cycle? There have been three slowdowns in the credit cycle over the past 30 years: 90, 00 and 07. Seems like every 10 years, there was a downturn. Each decline was associated either with a Fed that tightened its policy too much, or with a stock market bubble or both. Each of these downturns in the credit cycle was closely associated with an economic slowdown during which default rates increased sharply.

I am looking at the warning signs that could portend a turn in the cycle and the beginning of a downturn. These signs include weakening earnings, elevated levels of M&A as well as highly leveraged LBO, tightening lending standards, over levered balance sheets and an aggressive Fed tightening policy.The only thing that is over levered are the COVID -hit industries like Airline, Hotels and other asset heavy companies.

The Economy conditions will be a binary situations. If the recovery doesn't provide enough cash flow to maintain the interest payment, then things can go badly quickly. The Fed doesn't have much ammo left, its up to the economy to lift it or reset it.

With inflation below the Fed’s stated target and economic growth below that of previous expansion phases, I believe there’s low probability of a Fed doing anything to their policy that could strangle the expansion within the next 12 months. Should inflation move materially above the Fed’s 2-3% target and economic growth rises considerably above the anemic level of the post-financial crisis era, then I will revisit.

03/09/2021

There are 3 micro bubbles in the Market including Electric ⚡️ Electric Vehicles, recent IPOs and S**Cs! This market will pop more bubbles than Squirtle

With lots of S**Cs now selling for less than their cash holdings, the tidal wave of money that’s propped them up may soon become a trickle.

03/06/2021

https://twitter.com/agarwoodcapital/status/1368259165974650883?s=21

“The second longest bull run from Oct 1990-Mar 2000(11years) returned 417%. The current bull market 📈 from March 2009 - Current(12years) returned 380%. The world 🌎 is less than a year from opening ⬆️, this would feed more bullish sentiment in the market and I can see a new high. https://...

03/06/2021

If I calculate Tsla as a traditional car manufacturer, then it’s worth $200B. How much revenue do retail investors expect tesla to get from Energy? Energy industry profits are like 10% and 15% for solar sectors. It still won’t get Tesla to $400B valuation.

If TSLA can ever get autonomous driving, then the company can be worth $1Trillion. But the best hardware in equipped Cars 🚙 can barely go on a road trip without a driver’s judgement.

I don’t believe we will get to level 5 driving for at least 6-10 years. By then, Tsla will have way more competition in  autonomous drivingsoftware .

03/05/2021

With every negative headline, your emotions become less controllable and will force you to sell, when you should be doing the exact opposite - preparing to buy.
There are two ways to control it:
1. Add capital regularly on the dips (Buy when the company is fundamentally the same but has a cheaper Valuation)
2. Avoid the News
3. Repeat the two 🔝 steps and earn max gains

There are two ways to invest in the stock market. The first way is to invest in getting the average market return of 7%, just following the S&P 500. The second way is to invest in individual st…

02/28/2021

It's hard to be smarter than all other investors. There are lots of smart people in this industry.

It's harder to be realistic and patient. Being Patience can be more lucrative than intelligence.

02/23/2021

Why oil and battery metal prices are surging in parallel
Metals used in electric vehicle batteries are going to the moon.

Cobalt, lithium, copper, nickel,and some rare earth metals have seen prices surge in recent months as electric vehicle (EV) demand -- especially in China -- rises.

According to The Economist, the bullish run is also due to COVID-related supply constraints in China (rare earth), Indonesia, and South Africa (cobalt) -- among others.

Another energy-related commodity is also seeing prices jump.

02/21/2021

10 of my investing principles:
1)Stock has🔝1-3 product
2)Valuation is temporary
3)Inspirational culture
4)Fearful 😧or ignorant competitors
5)Diversify ideas💡
6)Sell when upside extremely limited
7)Exploit momentum
9)Qualitative research🔬 > Quantitative Data
10)Evolve