Intelligent Investing, LLC

10/16/2026

📉 Sentiment is looking pretty washed out right now. CNN Fear & Greed is sitting at 25 (Extreme Fear) and the AAII survey has been running 46–53% bearish the last few weeks.

📅 Meanwhile the seasonal path we outlined last Friday is still playing out: we got the high around the 13th, now looking for a drop into roughly the 19th, a bounce over the next few days, then one more push lower into month-end.

📈 By then sentiment should be even worse, which lines up nicely with the two seasonally strong months that follow.

10/15/2026

📈 Yesterday in the Elliott Wave Principle course I laid out live (!) the $SPX setup for a small 4th-wave bounce, then a final drop to complete the five-wave C-wave.

✅ The index did exactly that: bounce into yesterday’s close, followed by a lower open and subsequent intraday bullish reversal rally!

💰 Traded it: bought SPY Dec 18 options at $21.45 → sold at $22.97!

🎯 Putting my money where the analysis is

Course: visit our website!

10/07/2026

🚨Yesterday the NYSE’s McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) turned positive for the first time since August 14!

😱 This almost 2-months long decline caused its Summation Index ($NYSI) to reach its 2nd lowest reading (-772 vs -834 on 10/30/‘23) since the October 17, 2022 Bearmarket low!

💥 Meanwhile the NYSI’s daily RSI(14) was as oversold as at the March 23, 2020 COVID-19 Crash low (1.42 vs 1.45)!

So does this tell us that the stock market has room to run or is the path of least resistance lower?

Drop your answer in the comments 👇

10/02/2026

🚨 The S&P 500 was yesterday only ~2% off its high. But Breadth looks like a bear-market low: see the link to my latest article 👇

⚠️ Price action since the August ATH has been mostly sideways. The index bottomed on September 16 right at the 62% retracement of the July–August rally — classic gray W-ii territory — then rallied in five smaller waves (orange W-1). A short-term pullback, orange W-2, bottomed yesterday in the ideal 7610 ±30 target zone: also a 62% retracement!

From there the bullish path points to 8700+.

📉 That count stays valid only above the September 16 low of 7507. Lose that level and the map flips: September 16 was green W-a, last week’s top was green W-b, and green W-c toward 7350 ±100 is underway.

📊 The stronger tell is breadth. SPX Summation Index RSI5 hit 2.71 and the indicator itself −636. An RSI5 that low has shown up only twice in ~28 years — July 2002 and the COVID crash — and both marked bottoms, not tops. Those were the ends of severe bear markets. This market was ~2.1% below an ATH made a month and a half ago. That combination is unprecedented.

🚀 Corrections can come in price, time, or internals. Internals have already done the work. The SPX-SI has little room left on the downside, so the setup to watch is a strong reversal — not another leg of selling.

Price action since the August all-time high (ATH) has been largely sideways and has left much to be desired. The index bottomed on September 16, right at the 62% retracement of the July-August rally, which is common for a 2nd wave: gray W-ii.

10/01/2026

🚨August’s warning for the Dow Jones ($DIA) is flipping: oversold breadth says the next bigger move is up.

⚠️ On Aug 6 we flagged a rare Dow setup: two days entirely above the upper Bollinger Band, capped by a shooting star. The path we eventually mapped was a five-wave decline toward 50,250–50,750.

📉 That count is playing out. W-3 bottomed at 51,186 (Sep 16), W-4 peaked at 52,319 (Sep 22), and the Dow is now in the low 51,000s for W-5. Support sits near 50,500 (February high), with the 161.8% extension of W-1 at ~50,484 and W-c of W-5 targeting ~50,900 ±100. MACD is oversold.

📊 The stronger tell is breadth. NYSI’s daily RSI5 hit 1.78 and the index itself −665 — levels seen only five times in ~28 years (2000, 2002, 2018, COVID). Those were mostly deep, multi-month drawdowns. Price here is down only ~5–7%. Internals have done the correcting that price has not.

🚀 Opposite of the Aug 6 warning: when the selling is done, only buying is left. A rally is likely around the corner — and with only 8 waves up from the 2022 low, new ATHs remain on the table.

Link to article 👇

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/dow-jones-forecast-oversold-breadth-signals-rally-as-50500-support-nears-1633901

Dow Jones weakness may be nearing exhaustion as Elliott Wave targets are reached, oversold breadth, support near 50,500, and technical divergences point toward a renewed rally soon.

09/28/2026

From the department of contrarian perspective.

📉 There’s been a lot of speculation about how many stocks are down and how few are keeping the market stable -aka bad market breadth- suggesting a crash is at hand.

⚡️However, there’s another side to the story: corrections can occur in time, price and under the hood. We likely experience the latter.

📊 Namely, both the NYSE ($NYSI) and S&P 500 McClellan Summation Indexes ($SPXSI) now sit well-below –500.

🔻Their daily RSIs are deeply oversold (2, 3; respectively) — readings we almost never see.
Historically, such low RSI5 and below -500 levels is where meaningful bottoms form.

Bullish from here?

09/27/2026

New crypto update is live. 🎬

Bitcoin & Ethereum: Is the bull back?

BTC: impulse off the July low is in. Room into ~85k–94.5k, then a likely 3-wave pullback toward ~65k–70k before wave 3. Longer-term red wave 5 still points ~160k–200k. No lower low expected.

ETH: 5 waves up from the June low. Near-term rollover risk; first bull warning at ~2,661. Bigger picture: multi-year bull flag on the monthly log chart targets ~6,500–9,000.

Watch here 👇�://youtu.be/XvxSVwYSsv4

Like & subscribe if it helps. ⚖️ NFA

As promised in our last video, today's crypto market update focuses...

09/21/2026

📈 Bitcoin update — Friday’s map is live.

🌊 Five waves up from the July 1 low are now on the board. Price is now in the $85.2 - 94.5K zone we flagged and it broke the black-box bull flag.l patten. That impulsive count treats the July low as in.

1️⃣ This advance = larger-degree 1st wave.

🎯 Measured move still ~$93K, but note the building negative momentum on the MACD, typical for a final 5th.

⚠️ Note “the 4-year cycle is over” — as the Elliott Wave count from July 1 is impulsive.

Thus, the path of least resistance stays higher for the long-term while the updated Bull warning levels are raised: holds: $82,813 → $81,439 → $80,093 → $78,183 → $74,955

Next: ✅ $85.2K as support 🎯 $94.5K overhead resistance.

🐻 Lose red $74,955 with a serious warning below $80,093 and a W-2 of the larger degree is underway!

09/18/2026

📈 Bitcoin update — Breakout alert!

🌊This week, BTC most likely completed a smaller 4th wave from the July 1 low and is now in gray wave 5️⃣ targeting the ideal $85K–$95K zone.

The black-box bull flag also looks complete. Measured move points to ~$93K 🎯

A full 5-wave advance from the July low would confirm:
✅ Bear market ended July 1
✅ 4-year cycle officially over
✅Price just printed >$80,000 (+5.7%). RSI is at 62.6 — still room to run.
⚠️ Bulls’ warning levels: 79,384 → 77,626 → 76,232 → 75,505 → 72,959

Hold those and the path of least resistance stays higher. Lose them and the impulsive count gets questioned.

09/17/2026

📊 SP500: tracking a potential diagonal down off the ATH. Chart 1!

🎯 Yesterday Wave 3 bottomed exactly at the 138.2% extension of W1 from W2 (7507). Same spot the smaller gray Wc of W3 = Wa of W3 (~7500) and the orange Wc = 1.618× Wa (@7510). Triple confluence.

☝️Today gapped straight into the ideal W4 zone (61.8–76.4%) at 7618–7645.
�⬇️ Hold this zone + take out yesterday’s low → W5 targets 176.4–200% at 7396–7413.

⚠️ Break above 7756 and the larger ending-diagonal alt is live.

📈 Alternative count: larger ending diagonal. Chart 2!

⬆️ W-iii peaked last month, W-iv bottomed yesterday. W-v now targeting 161.8–200% at 7864–7993.

🐻 Bears pinned to the wall. Can they hold 7618–7645? OPEX tomorrow. 📅