InterAmerican Investment Group, Inc

InterAmerican Investment Group, Inc Business Strategies and Financial Solutions

12/15/2020

Siempre positivo, realista y pasión por lo que hago!

Épocas de grandes cambios e incógnitas, provocan riesgo y oportunidad.
El único lujo que no tenemos es el no hacer nada.

En mis años profesionales en la banca internacional de inversión, estratégica y finanzas, ya he pasado, por años de crecimiento, recesiones, inflación, devaluaciones, gobiernos de todos los colores y políticas económicas, desde crecimiento con inflación, solo navegar sin hacer olas por el sexenio, hasta políticas social/populistas.

Si prestamos atención a la historia, podremos derivar bastante de el futuro, acciones para mitigar el riesgo y las reglas que conllevan a la oportunidad,. Sin embargo, difícil es observar una historia donde no existe, lo que se nos ha presentado en el 2020 es una ecuación nueva, un nuevo orden que comienza a gestar reglas, preferencias y conductas totalmente nuevas y la mayoría aun sin definición y evolución cambiante.

La creatividad, energía, tolerancia al riesgo e intuición, serán los atributos más valiosos.

Sin duda el 2021 tendrá que ser mejor que el 2020, por la simple razón que el 2020 ha despertado un agudo sentido de supervivencia y creatividad, porque la tecnología jugara un enorme y vital papel y porque el re-inicio a la recuperación se establece con reglas mucho mas consientes de los valores fundamentales, individuales y empresariales..

Mi mayor deseo para TI!, es unidad en tu familia, muchísima salud y desde luego prosperidad y bienestar.
Que pases una Navidad feliz y que el 2021 te conceda todo lo que estés buscando.

06/29/2019

The weekly summary, the world and Mexico

Globally
• Major stock markets have had a quiet week before the G20 summit in Japan this weekend with the All Countries World Index and the Emerging Markets Index almost unchanged
• Despite international trade tensions, global stock markets have had a good first six months of the year with US markets up 18%, Europe up 13% and China up 20%
• Much of this is due to a substantial change of policy by the US Federal Reserve on interest rates reductions and to China’s commitment to monetary and fiscal stimulus for its economy
• President Trump will meet the Chinese President today at the G20 conference in Japan to re-open negotiations on their trade dispute; both have been asked by advisors to be prepared to make compromises
• China wants a balanced agreement but the US says it is not interested in a fair deal because of China’s trading history saying that China has stolen from the US for years
• The US says it will be slow to accept any conditions around its use of tariffs in the dispute while China says its strong economic resilience means its negotiators will be able to take a tough negotiating position
• A press release issued yesterday suggests the two sides have agreed to a suspension of tariffs before talks resume and the US Treasury Secretary has said that a trade agreement between the two countries is 90% complete
• The US Commerce Department says it is adding to its National Security Entity List more Chinese companies and a government owned institute involved in supercomputing with military applications which bars them from buying US parts and components without government approval
• President Trump will have meetings with at least eight other national leaders during the G20 conference. He has threatened Vietnam with new tariffs, attacked India for imposing its own tariffs, criticised Germany for not paying enough into the NATO budget and insulted his Japanese hosts. However he expects to have a very good conversation with the Russian president
• President Trump says India’s decision to impose tariffs on the US in retaliation for his cancelling India’s participation in the Generalised System of Preferences is not acceptable and the tariffs must be withdrawn
• The European Union and Mercosur, an alliance currently comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay agreed a free trade treaty yesterday concluding twenty years of negotiation which will facilitate more open market trading in contrast to increasing protectionism elsewhere
• Europe is a major trading partner with the US and the US has temporally agreed not to impose tariffs on European Union cars imported to the US
• Europe now hopes to re-open negotiations with the US on a new permanent trade deal but there is disagreement over the issue of mutual market access for agricultural products
• European Union leaders have asked the G20 to help reform the World Trade Organization to preserve its rules based system covering international trade monitoring, negotiating, and dispute settlement, a role which is currently threated by US policy on some international trading

Mexico
• The Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 8.25% this week despite increasing concerns for the economy
• Mexico’s exports increased in May by an annual 6.7% while imports increased by just 0.1%, improving the balance of trade from a deficit of US$1.6 billion last month to a surplus of US$1 billion
• Pemex has signed a US$8 billion syndicated loan with 23 Banks to renew credit lines, refinance its liabilities and provide funds for investment
• The President says this demonstrates that Pemex is in very good health and that there is investor confidence in the company. He suggests Banks act strictly on clear information and don’t take decisions such as the Pemex financing facility just because they like the government
• He said the new financing is available for five years instead of the current three years and the terms of the loan will reduce the interest rate Pemex pays
• Pemex says its net debt will not increase between now and 2022 and that crude production will soon increase primarily through the development of 20 recently discovered oil fields
• However, it currently continues to struggle with declining production and reports that output fell by 0.7% last month
• The President says that he has different information and that production at Pemex is no longer falling but has stabilised and he notes that reducing corruption has saved Pemex 30% in its operating costs
• The environmental study produced by Pemex for its new refinery was initially published with large sections blocked out but some of this has now been disclosed and shows the refinery will have a severe impact on local air quality and emissions could spread to nearby towns
• Mexico’s oil industry environmental regulator has three months to review the report and issue its conclusions
• The oil industry regulator has approved a US$97 million plan for drilling in an offshore area operated by British company BP in the southern Gulf of Mexico
• BP’s contract is one of over 100 awarded since the national energy reform finalised in 2014 to help Pemex reverse years of declining crude production. All future awards have been suspended
• The President has rejected concerns that gas supply pipeline contracts awarded under the previous government might not be honoured but says the terms of the agreements are abusive
• He has told CFE, the national power utility to negotiate a more fair agreement with companies which have provided pipelines some of which have yet to go into operation
• Walmart is now offering delivery from its Superama stores via WhatsApp, attracting shoppers away from supermarkets
The Bolsa is down 1% at 43,161 while the peso has weakened a little this week to 19.22 to the US dollar

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