Daniel Stabbert - Mortgage Broker NMLS #2309653

02/06/2023

Lots of movement lately! Here's a quick recap and forecast for what could be affecting rates this week.

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
Mortgage rates improved through the week until Friday's jobs data came in much stronger than expected, pushing rates up to end the week about the same as they started it. The jobs data blew away all expectations, with more than double the expected new jobs created and with unemployment hitting a 53-year low.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Average mortgage rates could continue to creep higher this week, after the strong labor numbers gave the Fed more room to continue to raise its policy rate at future meetings to fight inflation. Mortgage rates react to the speculation of moves before they happen, so this opens the door to higher rates now rather than when the Fed actually acts.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: A few Treasury auctions and Friday's consumer confidence reading are most likely to affect mortgage rates this week.
- Inflation: Rates this week may move as traders try to anticipate next week's CPI inflation data, which will set the tone for which direction rates move from here depending on if inflation is still falling and by how much.
- The Fed: Markets are now pricing in a higher peak before the Fed stops hiking its policy rate, pushing mortgage rates higher.

01/17/2023

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗝𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟭𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 👍
Average mortgage rates improved a bit further last week, with consumer inflation data coming in that showed inflation was moving lower, as economists had forecast. Although we didn't see a big drop, the small improvement was welcome with rates much lower than the highs near the end of 2022.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 👍
This week mortgage rates are likely to be relatively unchanged, with some small day-to-day movement but not any big moves for the week. Mortgage rates are likely to hold near current levels this week and next week, ahead of the Fed meeting at the end of the month.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: Wholesale inflation data comes in on Wednesday, and economists are expecting wholesale inflation to be cooling alongside consumer inflation. Also on Wednesday the retail sales data comes out, and if it shows spending is falling would help support lower mortgage rates.
- The Fed: Current mortgage rates are based on the speculation that the Fed policy rate will peak at 4.75% by March. If markets start to believe that the Fed will raise the policy rate higher, based on strong economic data, it will pressure mortgage rates higher.

12/19/2022

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 👍
Last week's inflation data came in narrowly better than expected, and although above the Fed's target 2% rate was tied for lowest since November 2021. And while the Fed raised policy rates 0.5% and gave a message that it projected to raise rates in 2023 higher than markets expected, markets don't believe the Fed will be able to do that due to a slowing economy and decreasing inflation. All of this helped mortgage rates end the week slightly better than the previous week.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗼𝗽𝗽𝘆 ⚠️
Average mortgage rates may creep up a bit this week, but aren't in danger of moving significantly higher from here. Traders tend to take off the last couple of weeks of the year, which leads to lower trading volumes and can make mortgage rates a bit choppy from day to day. We could end the week with rates slightly higher though, after ending last week near the best levels we've seen in months.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: Consumer sentiment and the PCE inflation report come out on Friday, and could cause more movement than normal due to the holiday.
- Christmas: The bond market will close early Friday (2pm ET) and be closed on Monday in observance of Christmas.

12/13/2022

Weekly Update!

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍
Average mortgage rates didn't move much over the last week, although they did move a bit from day-to-day to end the week basically unchanged.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
Rates could make big moves this week as we get two major events - consumer inflation data and the Fed meeting and press conference. Rates could improve or get worse, depending on how the data comes out as well as how markets react. It's a good week to stay in touch with your mortgage professional and discuss locking if concerned.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: Tuesday morning before rates are set, November's CPI consumer inflation data comes out. October's report came in better than expected, helping rates fall from the 7's back into the 6's. If this report also shows inflation is easing and comes in better than expected, we could see rates improve. However, if the data comes in worse than expected we could see rates surge higher.
- The Fed: The Fed is expected to raise policy rates by .50% at this week's meeting, as well as forecast how high it will raise rates in 2023 and at what pace. The Fed's outlook is going to be influenced by Tuesday's inflation data, and will affect mortgage rates immediately.

12/02/2022

❗🏡 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗻 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗱𝗶𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗰 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲! 😀

Today's news means you may be able to qualify for 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲, because a "conforming" loan often has a better rate than a "jumbo" loan that you would normally need for higher mortgage amounts.

The conforming loan amount is going from $647,200 to $726,200 in 2023. Some areas of the country qualify for even higher limits, sometimes as high as $1,089,300!

👉 𝗜𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂'𝗱 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂, 𝗹𝗲𝘁 𝗺𝗲 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜'𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗴𝗹𝗮𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗼 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘆𝗼𝘂.

𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿, 𝗶𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂'𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗜'𝗺 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗽.

11/21/2022

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟭, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍
After dropping significantly the previous week, average mortgage rates last week were basically unchanged, and moved very little day to day despite economic and job data that showed the economy remains resilient and is not yet slowing down. Often strong data like we saw would have turned into slightly higher mortgage rates, but didn't this time.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀 👍
This week, mortgage rates are likely to remain at or near the current levels through the holiday shortened week, with very little going on in the markets to cause much concern.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: The only day that we have any significant economic data is Wednesday, but rates shouldn't be largely affected.
- The Fed: Mortgage rates are reacting to the speculation of when and how much the Fed will hike policy rates to end 2022 and into the meetings in 2023. The minutes from last month's Fed meeting come out on Wednesday, but aren't expected to cause any surprises for rates.
- Thanksgiving: Markets will be closed Thursday and will close early on Friday. Most lenders will do the same, and rates are not likely to move between Wednesday and the following Monday.

11/14/2022

Weekly update!

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗽𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Average mortgage rates moved higher last week when Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is likely to raise the policy fed funds rate higher in 2023 than was expected. Although Powell said that future rate hikes will come in smaller increases, it was the outlook of a higher end rate that caused mortgage rates to worsen last week.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
This week we will get the October CPI consumer inflation data, which could pressure mortgage rates to move higher. Expectations are that inflation will show some signs of decreasing, but unless this report shows inflation has moved significantly lower, it will be perceived to support the higher Fed rate hiking and is not good for mortgage rates. Only a surprisingly big drop in inflation would support rates improving this week, which is risky to hope for.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: There is not a lot of data this week, but the CPI inflation data on Thursday is a big report and could cause a shake up in rates. Strong inflation data will hurt mortgage rates.
- Veterans Day: Markets will be closed Friday, as will be many lenders. Lenders tend to set rates more conservatively over long holiday weekends as well.

10/24/2022

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Mortgage rates moved higher last week, although not by much, as markets continued to prepare for the Fed to raise policy rates at the next few meetings heading into 2023.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️
Mortgage rates could make sudden, big moves this week as data comes out on consumer spending and inflation. Traders will be looking for signs on what the Fed will do after next week's meeting, since a .75% fed funds rate hike is already expected. Next week will also be volatile because of the scheduled Fed meeting and press conference, making it a good time to discuss your unique situation with your mortgage professional and deciding if locking a rate would be a good option for you if available.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: This week has quite a bit of data, as well as a few Treasury auctions. Tuesday's consumer confidence data and Thursday's durable goods orders could play a roll in rates for the week, but Friday's PCE inflation report will have the most impact on rates.
- Overseas Central Banks: The European Central Bank meeting is on Thursday and the Bank of Japan's meeting is on Friday. Their moves to curb overseas inflation could affect rates here this week.

10/17/2022

🏡 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎
Average mortgage rates once again started the week off better before ending the week just slightly higher. Rates at least showed signs of stabilizing last week despite inflation data showing no signs of improvement yet.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 👎
Mortgage rates are not likely to make any significant improvements this week, but could at least hold steady rather than moving higher as we've grown used to seeing each week. Expectations that the Fed will raise policy rates .75% at both the November and December meetings, and .5% at the February meeting make it unlikely rates will fall much from here.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
- Economic data: This week has a few housing reports, including housing starts and existing home sales, which will likely show the housing market has slowed down. However, these reports shouldn't affect rates much this week.
- Overseas markets: Rates have been helped to start the week by new UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt scrapping an economic plan by his predecessor that previously caused global bond markets to falter and pushed U.S. mortgage rates higher a couple of weeks ago. Markets have reacted positively to his moves to reverse course.