10/16/2026
Morningstar recently put the safe starting withdrawal rate for 2026 at 3.9%, so we’re basically back to the 4% rule.
On a hypothetical $2M portfolio, that’s $78,000 in the first year instead of $80,000.
Their definition of “safe” is pretty conservative, though. It assumes you take the same inflation-adjusted amount every year no matter what the market does, keep 30% to 50% in stocks, and want a 90% chance the money lasts 30 years.
The part of the report I found more interesting was what happens when you loosen that up. Morningstar found that retirees who are willing to cut spending in bad years may be able to start much higher, up to about 6%. On the same $2M, that’s roughly $120,000. The tradeoff is that your income moves around with the market.
So the first question we ask in planning is how much your spending could actually flex. Usually that depends on how much of your budget is fixed, and how much income you have coming in from Social Security, a pension, or rentals.
Hypothetical example, for illustration only. Educational only, not individualized advice.