Let's Talk Stocks

Let's Talk Stocks This page and website is to give my personal opinion on stocks that I believe are a buy, sell, or hold while also listening to other's ideas and insights.

03/23/2016

10:32 News Bot: US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (18-Mar) W/W 9357K vs. Exp. 2525K (Prev. 1317K), output fell 0.331% to 9.038mln bpd
- US DoE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (Mar 18) W/W -1258K vs. Exp. 335K (Prev. 545K).
- US DoE Gasoline Inventories (Mar 18) W/W -4642K vs. Exp. -2200K (Prev. -747K).
- US DoE Distillate Inventory (Mar 18) W/W 917K vs. Exp. -650K (Prev. -1135K).
- US DoE Refinery Utilisation (Mar 18) W/W -0.60% vs. Exp. 0.30% (Prev. -0.10%).
(U.S. Department of Energy)

Hey everyone who followed this idea on shorting EUR/USD. Be careful here if you got short. We're sitting right on some t...
03/23/2016

Hey everyone who followed this idea on shorting EUR/USD. Be careful here if you got short. We're sitting right on some trendline support but technical still point to a lower move. RSI down, price action down, etc. Already seen a -80 pip move since I posted and Gold and Crude have fallen significantly with this dollar strength and the API report. EIA report out at 10:30am today so be careful with oil until that confirms the huge 8m barrel build we saw.

VIX down quite a bit today but call volume at the ask is very high. Less than .50 put/call ratio. VIX spot is trading 13...
03/21/2016

VIX down quite a bit today but call volume at the ask is very high. Less than .50 put/call ratio. VIX spot is trading 13.79 but the prompt month (April) futures are trading at 16.99. Very steep Contango curve it seems. Today's volume had 70% of the volume traded between 0-20 delta which means it could be just some big downside hedging. 0-20 delta means bets on big moves, or simply hedges against big August-type events. I'll be keeping an eye on these stats everyday. But if you want to get long volatility, it could be a good time in my opinion.

EUR/USD looks like a good short here. RSI and SS coming down off Overbought levels. Look for oil to fall off overbought ...
03/21/2016

EUR/USD looks like a good short here. RSI and SS coming down off Overbought levels. Look for oil to fall off overbought levels if the dollar does strengthen up here. Will be keeping a close eye on this.

Just a little before and after chart. I played it safe and sold my FB calls yesterday for break-even, and then it did wh...
05/14/2015

Just a little before and after chart. I played it safe and sold my FB calls yesterday for break-even, and then it did what I wanted it to, and some. Damnit. Patience everyone, patience. I lack it.

Some things to keep an eye on this week. Most have the potential to break to the upside.
05/04/2015

Some things to keep an eye on this week. Most have the potential to break to the upside.

Just got short this market. Broke big trendline support and is making lower highs!
04/30/2015

Just got short this market. Broke big trendline support and is making lower highs!

04/09/2015

Haven't posted here for a bit, but here is today's play on volatility.

Bought to open UVXY 100 shares at $12.40
Wrote covered calls against position at $15 strike for $.80

In essence, if UVXY were to go above $15, my calls would have to be covered by my stock. My cost average on the position would be $11.60, and UVXY at $15 would give me a return in 36 days of roughly 29.31.

On the other hand, if it stays below, my cost average is now 100 shares at $11.60, calls would expire worthless, and I would just do the same thing again. UVXY and VIX as low as they are, in my mind, makes this position a no brainer. Volatility WILL spike at some point. In the meantime, why not generate some income (:

Here is what I am seeing on the June futures for the /ES after today''s economic numbers. I don't know a ton about what ...
04/03/2015

Here is what I am seeing on the June futures for the /ES after today''s economic numbers. I don't know a ton about what month futures to look at but, here is the thing.... there is a clear channel we have been trading in. After today's disappointing employment numbers, there was an obvious drop off which is getting close to testing support over the 60 day chart. If this week, we break down below this, I am definitely sitting on dry powder or getting ready to get short the market. This could get interesting. I know everyone here, including myself will take advantage of that volatility and start selling premium like crazy. I'm thinking directional plays to the downside are a must. Iron condors, strangles, etc could get ugly, and get tested very fast.

A little before and after chart from today. I was watching UVXY, which tracks volatility very closely throughout the day...
02/25/2015

A little before and after chart from today. I was watching UVXY, which tracks volatility very closely throughout the day. I saw a 30 minute uptick amongst a ton of red downticks, and I bet on that being the pivotal point for a reversal. Turns out I was right. UVXY swung to the green, and I made over 100% profit on my call options :)

Forget supply and demand guys, big money is moving USO (oil) the way they want. Based on charts. Look at this stock boun...
02/23/2015

Forget supply and demand guys, big money is moving USO (oil) the way they want. Based on charts. Look at this stock bounce back and forth the last 30 days between $18 and $20. You think that is just coincidence? Nope! Support is at around $18, and resistance is right above $20. It has failed to break these marks several times.

Because of this, I just went long OIL for this week's expiration. Sold a $18/17 put spread (bullish) and a few call option contracts at the $18.50 level for next week's expiration :)

Ebay has tried to break the $58-59 price tag for the last 5 years. Since about this same time back in 2013, ebay toyed w...
02/23/2015

Ebay has tried to break the $58-59 price tag for the last 5 years. Since about this same time back in 2013, ebay toyed with the $58 price level, this happened roughly 8 more times before coming back down to earth in the $50's. We are finally back up the $58 level again, closing Friday at $58.02. I personally purchased puts that expire this Friday. I may not have given myself a ton of time for this to work out, but my thesis is that ebay has unsuccessfully tried to break out of this major resistance 8-10 times in the last 3 years. Every single time, it has come back down substantially, and people have played this strategy for years buying in the low 50's and selling in the high 50's. Let's see what this week brings. My prediction is a pull-back to the $56's. We shall see!

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