Market Misbehavior

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09/03/2026

Live market recap kicks off at 5pm ET.

All the Musk names are rallying this morning, and $SPCX is dangerously close to breaking above the opening day price $15...
09/03/2026

All the Musk names are rallying this morning, and $SPCX is dangerously close to breaking above the opening day price $150. This IPO has followed a classic pattern: initial spike higher, big drop lower, then a consolidation around an equilibrium price. $SPCX > 150 would imply something new and different.

I'll bucket this under "early warning, but not enough to get too anxious about." While the $VIX remains safely in the m...
09/03/2026

I'll bucket this under "early warning, but not enough to get too anxious about." While the $VIX remains safely in the mid-teens, the $MOVE index (the VIX for bonds) is pushing higher. Market pricing in bigger swings for bonds probably not a great sign for risk assets.

"A healthy bull market is validated by an expansion in new 52-week highs." Strong uptrends are usually fueled by a broa...
09/03/2026

"A healthy bull market is validated by an expansion in new 52-week highs." Strong uptrends are usually fueled by a broad advance, where early leadership names are making new highs before the major indexes. Not the case here in September 2026! $SPX $QQQ

I find the "bend don't break" mentality to be slightly annoying in sports, because it sure feels like my team is giving ...
09/03/2026

I find the "bend don't break" mentality to be slightly annoying in sports, because it sure feels like my team is giving up ground when they don't need to! But it's a great metaphor for the S&P 500, pulling back in recent weeks yet still holding a key support range.

How bullish do I want to be on $GOOG $GOOGL if and when it confirms a break below the 200-day moving average?..... 📉
09/03/2026

How bullish do I want to be on $GOOG $GOOGL if and when it confirms a break below the 200-day moving average?..... 📉

09/02/2026

Live market recap begins promptly at 5pm ET / 2pm PT!

holding major support based on 200-day moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Below $4220 would be a b...
09/02/2026

holding major support based on 200-day moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Below $4220 would be a bearish confirmation, but price stability and RSI > 40 suggests strength here.

The equal-weight $SPX $RSP is the only one to have made new highs every month since March. $SPY missed ATH in July, and...
09/02/2026

The equal-weight $SPX $RSP is the only one to have made new highs every month since March. $SPY missed ATH in July, and $QQQ hasn't made a new high since early June!

Chaikin Money Flow has now turned bearish for $SPY, implying that there is more distribution than accumulation as measur...
09/02/2026

Chaikin Money Flow has now turned bearish for $SPY, implying that there is more distribution than accumulation as measured by daily volume readings. Strongest accumulation period was April, and volume very much in line with previous market pullbacks.

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