10/19/2026
𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀: 𝗪𝗲’𝘃𝗲 𝗛ave Been Here Before.
𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲, 𝗣𝗮𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲
𝙁𝙤𝙧 𝘽𝙪𝙮𝙚𝙧𝙨
The best description for the housing market vibe this month is disappointment. Average mortgage rates are front and center again, and not in a good way. After hovering around 6.75% for most of August, conventional rates shot up to 𝟳.𝟮𝟰% 𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟮 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 in anticipation of the Federal Reserve raising the Fed Funds Rate.
That is nearly a half percent increase, equating to roughly a 5% increase in a principal and interest payment. On a $3,000 monthly payment, it’s an extra $150, which isn’t enough to disqualify most active buyers but the “shock and awe” has stalled demand back to 2023 and 2024 levels.
𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝗱𝗻’𝘁 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯 𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 when rates were routinely over 7.25%, and market indicators do not support a crash in 2026. However, they may glide with less demand. Ironically, 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗶𝘁𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗳 that has caused such a sharp pause in buyer activity, because more homes sold in previous years with the same or higher rates. 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲.
Buyers typically pause when the rate is actively rising or actively falling, waiting for it to find stability. This pause provides a window of opportunity for those buyers who can shoulder a higher payment temporarily and negotiate a better deal on the price or terms of their purchase. When rates decline again, they may refinance their home and enjoy a lower payment.
Those who purchased in 2023 at 8% in October were able to refinance at 6.6% by December, or 6.1% by September 2024. Rates increased to 7.25% by January 2025, and those buyers were able to refinance to 6.1% by September. As a rule of thumb, every 1% change in mortgage rate equates to roughly a 10% difference on the principal and interest payment.
Meanwhile, incentives remain primarily focused on seller-paid closing costs and rate buydowns that effectively drop a buyer’s principal and interest payment temporarily by 10-20% for a year or two. In August, 59% of all MLS sales involved some form of seller-paid incentive of this nature, with a median cost to the seller at just over $10,000. The top price range for incentives is $350,000-$400,000 at 71% of sales.
The 4th quarter is seasonally the best time to be a home buyer in Greater Phoenix anyway, so expect new construction incentives to ramp up as well. Buyers who can shoulder the higher rate can negotiate better terms on the home they want today, and get the payment they want when rates decline in the future.
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*𝘊𝘳𝘰𝘮𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘥 𝘙𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵. 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘸𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘣𝘺 𝘛𝘪𝘯𝘢 𝘛𝘢𝘮𝘣𝘰𝘦𝘳, 𝘚𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘰𝘳 𝘏𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘈𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘵