03/31/2026
WEEKLY MARKET NEWSLETTER -
Week of March 30, 2026
From Calm to Combustion: How Oil Repriced the Market Last Week -
Last week was defined by a sharp regime shift after geopolitical tensions escalated, pushing crude oil meaningfully higher and reawakening inflation concerns. As energy prices surged, markets quickly repriced the risk that inflation could stick around longer than expected, forcing the Fed to stay restrictive. Treasuries sold off, interest rates moved higher, and mortgage rates followed as investors leaned into an “inflation is back” narrative rather than a slowdown story. In short, higher oil drove higher inflation expectations, and higher inflation expectations pushed rates up.
A Morning Mood Swing: Risk‑Off Takes the Wheel -
To start this week, the tone has softened. Despite oil remaining elevated, Treasuries are rallying this morning and rates are moving lower as investors rotate into safer assets. This move isn’t about inflation being solved; it’s about growing concern over economic growth after recent equity market weakness. High energy prices are increasingly viewed as a drag on consumers and spending, shifting the market’s focus from inflation risk to growth risk. That shift is giving rates a breather after last week’s climb and reminds us that markets don’t move in straight lines.
The Week Ahead: Inflation vs. Growth — Who Wins?
This week will be shaped by whether inflation fears from higher oil or risk‑off growth concerns dominate. Markets will closely watch labor data, manufacturing and services reports, and any inflation‑related releases for signs of slowing or resilience. Weak data would support the risk‑off trade and help rates, while stronger data could quickly revive inflation worries. Oil remains the wild card — continued strength keeps inflation in focus, while stabilization or pullback favors lower rates. Expect volatility and short‑lived opportunities, where timing and communication with clients matter more than headlines.
Stay informed and have a great week ahead!
Let me help YOUR next client!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**Remember that every 1st and 3rd Wednesday we will have our Mortgage Momentum call series. This next one is THIS COMING Wednesday, April 1st at 10am CST. This call will go into details on how we are leveraging Co-Signors and Co-Applicants and how to tell the difference between them and which ones can help your client with which programs. PLUS learn all about the FAMILY OPPORTUNITY ACT & DELAYED FINANCING! They are not all the same. You won’t want to miss this call!
Scan the QR Code or simply log in with the below credentials!
You can log onto it at:
TEAMS ID: 234 283 084 423 72
Password: ZU6
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHEN YOU THINK MORTGAGE - THINK RYAN BOODY
- THE PURPLE HAT LENDER!
Guaranteed Rate Affinity
Ryan Boody - Vice President of Mortgage Lending
NMLS: #1053658
Mobile: 850-445-3899
Licensed in FL, TN, AL, GA, AR, TX & KY!
