Simon Hobbs California Financial Partners

06/05/2026

SpaceX Warning
I am becoming very alarmed at the number of people asking me about SpaceX who don’t know about the expiration of enormous lockups in the months ahead, which could unleash waves of selling and force its share price down.
I am not legally allowed to give you advice on next week’s IPO. Nor is this a comment on whether SpaceX will be a good investment in the years to come. It is simply a warning about the mechanics of insiders who could suddenly be allowed to sell in large quantities.
SpaceX has been a private company for 24 years. During that time, many original engineers, early investors, and large Wall Street players have acquired substantial amounts of stock that they may be anxious to finally sell. Initially next week, they will be prohibited from doing so.
But as the months tick by, those lockups will quickly expire on certain dates. SpaceX explains those rules in its SEC registration document, known as an S-1. Bloomberg summarizes them in the graphic below.
Cynics argue that SpaceX is only selling approximately 4.3% of its stock in next week’s IPO, so early demand might outstrip supply, causing the stock to initially pop, triggering great headlines. After that, Bloomberg estimates that 50% of all stock becomes eligible for what it calls 'early release' in stages, with all of it available to sell within 180 days. One hundred percent of all SpaceX stock can be sold after 366 days.
At a valuation of $1.75 trillion, that is an almost biblical amount of stock.
Just please be careful.

06/05/2026

BNI characters go bowling. Special credit to Don at the back for making sure his ball got home safely.

05/28/2026

Newborns get $1,000 free from today.
If you have a child born last year – or this year -- the US Treasury will invest $1,000 for them now in the S&P 500. From today, its Invest America app is live, and available from Apple and Google app stores.
Yes, they're also called 'Trump Accounts'. If that's a problem for you, they'll probably change the name down the line.
$250 looks to be additionally available for any child aged 10 or under in Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert & Rancho Mirage, because our zip codes have a median income well below $150k, qualifying for part of the $6.25B donated by billionaires Michael & Susan Dell.
From July 4th, up to $5,000 can be added each year by relatives, friends, employers, philanthropists, certain charities or government programs. Some may give locally based on zip code.
It's a jump start for kids. In fact, by the time they come to retire, they could end-up being giant retirement accounts.

05/26/2026

SpaceX may trigger Big Tech sell-off

In the next three weeks there could be significant selling pressure on Big Tech, in the run-up to the SpaceX IPO, likely Friday 6/12, and immediately after it. True, it might be overpowered by any major market rally triggered by a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But let's understand the dynamic.

Let's say Elon Musk sells ≈ $90B of SpaceX stock. Investors will likely sell their other winning stocks in run up to 6/12 to the raise that cash. Retail investors alone hope to get one third of the allocation. But each person applying for SpaceX stock will likely raise many more times the cash actually required to buy, in anticipation of receiving only a small percentage of the ‘ready-to-buy’ cash they must make visible in their brokerage account. That's a lot of pre-selling.

Separately, executives at Nasdaq changed their index rules to help persuade Elon Musk to launch the world's biggest IPO on their exchange. SpaceX therefore gets admitted to their Nasdaq-100 Index within only 15 days. Making ETFs that track it, forced buyers of SpaceX stock in the period. And forced sellers of other Big Tech components of the Index to fund it. The five biggest ETFs tracking the Nasdaq-100 hold ≈ $600B. So, for every 1% weighting SpaceX gets in the Index, they'd need to sell ≈ $6B other big tech stocks, to buy ≈ $6B SpaceX stock. Nasdaq says in all, $1.4 trillion of assets track the Nasdaq-100, split 50/50 between derivatives and ETFs/mutual funds.

Additionally, it’s probable hundreds of thousands of fund managers around the world will want to buy SpaceX shorly after its IPO to demonstrate to local investors the virility of their own Growth ETFs/mutual funds. This 'window dressing' again will probably be funded by pre-selling their other US tech stocks.

My fear is that any weakness will be pounced on by the trading algorithms that execute 70% of all stock market volume, exacerbating down moves in order to profit from further downside.

I got criticized recently for suggesting people book a little profit on stocks up 400% or 500% year to date, to give them dry powder if stocks fall. As already stated, with corporate profits growing at such an astounding rate, it's ultimately probable that any end to the Iran war will massively override these SpaceX concerns. But it may yet prove a powerful dynamic you might want to be aware of.

05/12/2026

For How Long Can Stocks Surge?
Wall Street often cites a 'picks and shovels' analogy. Who became rich during California's Gold Rush? Not the prospectors. But Levis that clothed them. Or other physical suppliers to their frenzy -- the makers of picks and shovels.
Today stocks of businesses that supply the build-out of AI data centers have been rallying hard. In particular, manufacturers of microchips vital to new AI compute capacity have surged dramatically. Leaving the SOXX semiconductor ETF basket up 68% so far this year.
A couple of weeks ago I posted a warning that the market could dive before the Mid-Terms. I still believe that. But big picture, I think there's a major change in sentiment underway.
Fears of a major glut in AI capacity are being replaced with the hard realization that regardless, capital expenditure from Google, Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft will not only top $700B this year, but accelerate to $1 Trillion next year, and keep going. Because demand by corporations for somewhere to host their new agentic AI processes is insatiable. For as long as that holds true, profits at companies paid to physically create the buildout should accelerate. Talk for now is that big picture, this could fuel the current Bull Market for stocks for several more years, market corrections into the Mid-Terms notwithstanding.
simonhobbsfinancial.com

03/18/2026

Great group at Newport Beach BNI. Very supportive & focused on helping each other grow. New website finally shows what we actually do.

02/04/2026

Loving my new Newport Beach BNI networking group. Big deals & even bigger personalities, like Gabriel Lopez

12/31/2025

12/31/2025

I explain to News Channel 3 why new tax breaks are expected to make this a bumper season for IRS refunds. Trump back dated eveything. But i start with advice on holiday debt. Always consult your own CPA.

09/18/2025

So many lovely people at PS Biz Expo. Including colleague David Barr from Glendale HQ!