06/18/2026
Gold traders went into the Fed meeting hoping Kevin Warsh would open the door to rate cuts. What they got was the opposite.
Nine Fed officials now project rates finishing the year above current levels. The probability of a September hike jumped from 38% to 63% in a single session. Warsh made clear that inflation is still too high to seriously discuss cuts, and that a growing number of officials believe policy may actually need to tighten further from here.
Gold reversed lower almost immediately. And it wasn't just a sentiment reaction.
Higher rates hurt gold on two fronts at once. When Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold goes up. When rate expectations push the dollar higher, gold becomes more expensive for international buyers. Both things are happening right now.
The chart is confirming what the macro is saying. Gold has broken below its 200-day moving average, one of the most closely watched long-term trend indicators in the market. The next major support is around $4,000 and if that breaks decisively, the selloff could go much deeper before buyers step back in.
