Moddco Capital Associates, New York, NY (2026)

04/11/2024

📈 Precious Metals Performance Update 📉

Let's delve deeper into the fascinating world of precious metals and explore the reasons behind the significant differences in their performance this year. Here's a breakdown:

🥈 Silver: +17% 📈
🥇 Gold: +13.7% 📈
🥉 Platinum: -1.69% 📉
💿 Palladium: -2.50% 📉

Automobile Industry Dependency: Platinum and palladium's fortunes are closely tied to the automobile industry, predominantly for their use in catalytic converters. However, with convinced that consumers are all shifting towards electric vehicles, this sentiment has cast a shadow over the demand for platinum and palladium, treating them as relics of the past.

Supply Forecast vs. Demand Concerns: Despite the market sentiment towards electric vehicles, the platinum market is forecasted to enter into a supply deficit until 2028. South Africa and Russia, as the two largest producers of platinum, are crucial players in this scenario. The supply deficit could exacerbate existing concerns and potentially impact the market dynamics significantly.

As we navigate through these complexities, it's essential to keep an eye on both the short-term trends and the long-term forecasts to make informed decisions in the ever-evolving landscape of precious metals. Stay tuned for more updates! 💡💰

04/10/2024

🌟 Get ready to squeeze in some juicy news! 🍊 Stay tuned as we unravel the latest updates on Brazil's orange harvest, leftover stocks, and the looming shadow of citrus greening. It's a citrus saga you won't want to miss! 📰🍹

🍊 With Brazil producing eight times more oranges and processing ten times the orange juice compared to the United States (USDA FAS), hopes were high that Brazil's harvest could help offset the production loss in Florida. However, until the 2024 harvest begins, are relying on what's left from the 2023 harvest to meet demand.

🍊Unfortunately, a recent report from the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters (BR Citrus) revealed that leftover stocks as of December 31, 2023, were at the second lowest level on record.

🍊 With the next Brazilian harvest set for July, it'll be several months before Brazilian supply can replenish, raising concerns about tight global supplies. Of particular concern are reports of citrus greening spreading in Brazil, a problem that has devastated Florida's orange groves. 🍊

(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS)

04/09/2024

⚡ Brace yourselves for the ultimate copper clash! ⚡ While China's dominance in copper demand may steal the headlines, could well be on its way for explosive demand for the red metal. Get in on the action! 🐅🌍📈

👉 Let's think about this: every year Japan, China, and the United States each use around 15 lbs of copper per person (World Bureau of Metal Statistics)

👉 However, India, with the world's second-largest population and fifth-largest economy, accounting for a projected 15% of global GDP growth by 2024/2025, stands at a mere 0.66 lbs per capita.

👉 To support its growing population and economy, the International Energy Agency warns that India's electrical and power infrastructure, both heavy users of copper, must grow by 20% annually. Keep an eye on this up-and-coming player as it fuels the 'roaring' demand for the red metal. 🐅🔥

(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS)

03/31/2024

🐰🌿 Happy Easter! Did you know about the Easter Bilby? 🐾🍫 This Aussie alternative to the Easter Bunny raises awareness about conservation efforts and protects native wildlife, especially the endangered bilby. Originating in the '90s to address concerns about the destruction introducing rabbits has caused Australia, the Easter Bilby campaign aims to safeguard Australia's unique ecosystem. By choosing chocolate bilbies over bunnies, people can support conservation projects and help preserve precious bilby habitats. 🌏💚

03/29/2024

Imagine showing up to your first baseball practice, all excited about joining the team . But there's a twist......

Because your old man hails from Australia, where cricket's king. So, while the other rookies are getting pointers on their swing, you're left scratching your head, wondering why the heck your grip feels all wrong. Thanks a lot, dad!

03/28/2024

🌟 Brazil to the Rescue! 🌟 Once again, Brazil steps up as the hero, this time in the world of coffee production! 🚀 Amidst the chaos caused by El Nino in robusta-producing nations like Vietnam and Indonesia, fingers are crossed that Brazil's upcoming harvest will save the day. 🙌

☕ While robusta coffee may play second fiddle to arabica in terms of fame, with its main role in instant coffee and espresso blends and comprising only 40% of the world's coffee production compared to arabica's 60%, declining robusta stocks in ICE warehouses and Vietnam's projected 20% export decrease have sent robusta coffee prices to record highs.

☕The supply for arabica coffee beans is in much better shape, which after ICE warehouse stocks of arabica hit a 20 year low back in November, have bounced back. Brazil, a heavyweight in arabica production, played a significant role in this rebound, with its January coffee exports witnessing a staggering 45% year-on-year increase.

☕While Brazil predominantly produces arabica, its substantial robusta output still places it among the top three producers alongside Vietnam and Indonesia. With Brazil's coffee harvest beginning in April, there's optimism that it may replicate its success in stabilizing the sugar in late 2023 ***

***Brazil's massive sugar harvest pumped the brakes on rising sugar prices, and even in 2024, Brazil keeps churning out sugar when usually things slow down. We'll dive deeper into why this is happening and what it might mean for sugar prices in the next marketing year in another post.

(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS)

03/27/2024

🍫🐣 Dive into the fascinating history of chocolate and Easter! Did you know that the same visionary chocolatier who sparked the tradition of heart-shaped boxes for Valentine's Day also introduced chocolate Easter eggs? Richard Cadbury's innovation in the 19th century transformed Easter celebrations forever.

🍫🐣 The tradition of giving eggs as gifts predates Cadbury's innovations. In medieval Europe, eggs were prohibited during Lent, making Easter Sunday a time of celebration and renewal. Boiled eggs, decorated with colors and patterns, symbolized the end of Lent and the joyous arrival of Easter.

🍫🐣 In the 19th century, Cadbury transformed the tradition by selling solid chocolate Easter eggs in 1875. Over time, chocolate manufacturers introduced hollow eggs to reduce production costs. They marketed this innovation as enhancing consumer enjoyment, often adding small trinkets inside to increase excitement.

🍫🐣 Fast forward to the present, where a metric tonne of cocoa costs more than a metric tonne of copper, and sugar prices, while slightly down from last year's highs, remain elevated.

🍫🐣 In response, manufacturers are ramping up marketing efforts focused on consumer health. This includes promoting sugar-free alternatives and smaller package sizes, all under the guise of prioritizing consumer well-being.

03/26/2024

coffee- tastes in asia, reliant on brazilian imports as prefer to expoit, is this brazilian arabica or robusta,

03/26/2024

🌾📊 Get ready, folks! This Thursday is shaping up to be a big day in the world of agriculture and . 🚜📈

🌾📊 Alongside the usual weekly export sales announcement, we've got some major updates lined up. the USDA is set to release its highly anticipated Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports.

🌾🚜 Every March, the planting reports give us the inside scoop on how many acres of crops US farmers are planning to plant for the upcoming spring, along with key insights into soil moisture conditions and any shifts in acreage preferences for crops like corn, soybeans etc. Plus, we'll also get a look at the quarterly grain stocks, providing estimates of all the grain on the farm and in storage.

🌾🚜Now, when it comes to how the markets react to these reports, it's a lot like how they respond to companies releasing their earnings. Using Tesla as an example, before the earnings report, analysts are busy crunching numbers, trying to predict how Tesla performed in the past quarter. If Tesla exceeds these estimates, its shares typically rally, but if it falls short, we often see a sell-off.

🌾📈Speaking of estimates, let's talk soybeans. Analysts are forecasting more acres to be planted this season compared to last year's 83.6 million acres. The range of estimates varies, but there's a general consensus that we'll see an increase, potentially between an extra 2.4 to 3.9 million acres. And it's a similar story for soybean stocks, with expectations pointing towards an increase from 1.687 billion bushels in March 2023 to 1.835 billion bushels in 2024.

📊 📈📉 Now, with everyone anticipating growth in both acreage and stocks, the big question is: how will prices react if we get a surprise number? Given the significant short positions held by funds against soybeans, there's potential for a massive short covering rally.

(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS)

03/20/2024

🌱🌿 Exploring the Dynamics of the Cooking Oil Market 🌿🌱

Amidst the bustling world of commodities trading, the soybean contract typically steals the spotlight. But what if we told you that the underdog—soybean oil futures—could soon take center stage? 📈💼 Let's delve into the evolving landscape of cooking oil shortages and its potential impact on the market. 🌍🔍

🌱🌿 As previously discussed, beyond trading whole beans, attention is drawn to value-added products like soybean oil, prized for its culinary uses, and soymeal, a protein-rich byproduct utilized in animal feed.

🌱🌿 Presently, focus remains on the soybean contract, with scrutiny on Brazilian harvest updates and uncertainties surrounding US weather for the upcoming planting season. Yet, amidst this spotlight, the soybean oil contract harbors bullish prospects.

🌱🌿February marked another record-breaking month for soybean crushing in the US, with a portion of the resulting soybean oil utilized in biodiesel production.

🌱🌿 Apart from soybean, palm oil, chiefly sourced from Southeast Asia, serves as an alternative for cooking oil and biodiesel production. Indonesia's mandate for biodiesel use heightens the likelihood of a shortage, exacerbated by El Niño's impact on key producers, Malaysia and Indonesia.

🌱🌿Commodity exchanges reflect concerns, with current cash prices surpassing prices to be paid for future delivery, indicating a tightening market for cooking oil.

03/19/2024

🌿🚫 Don't let pests spoil your harvest! 🚫🌿 Read on to learn about the battle against the notorious Boll Weevil bug and how collaboration is key to protecting our crops.🌾 💪

🐞🌾 The impact of pests on commodity prices is significant, with crop devastation being a prominent challenge. Recent instances include disease-carrying insects wreaking havoc on Florida's orange groves spreading citrus greening to the cocoa growing regions of West Africa battling bugs that spread Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus.

🐞🌾 Even the cotton fields of Texas are not spared. Although the Boll Weevil bug has been eradicated from most of the Cotton Belt stretching from Virginia to California, pockets of Texas along the Lower Rio Grande Valley still struggle due to its warm and mild winters, which haven't fully eliminated this invasive species.

🐞🌾Originating from Mexico in the 1890s, the Boll Weevil bug's ability to reproduce and fly up to 60 miles, coupled with its appetite for devouring cotton fields, led to the Southern cotton industry's decline by the 1920s

🐞🌾To combat the infestation, the United States embarked on its costliest eradication program to date, the "Boll Weevil Eradication Program," in a collaborative effort involving scientists, farmers, and legislators. Beginning in the 1960s and expanding into a nationwide program by the late 1970s, innovative methods such as utilizing the bug's pheromones to attract and trap the insects led to a remarkable recovery in the cotton industry.

🐞🌾 To sustain progress in eliminating the threat, the majority of states in the Cotton Belt now require permits for cotton cultivation. Despite the program's success, complete eradication of the Boll Weevil bug is unlikely without coordinated efforts with Mexico to prevent re-infestation.

(NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS)

Moddco Capital Associates

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