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Forex Bulls, New York, NY (2026)

01/24/2022

The dollar was up modestly in early trade on Monday, with risk appetite still constrained by fears of both rising interest rates and war in eastern Europe.

By 3 AM ET (0800 GMT) The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of developed market economies, was up 0.1% at 95.773, still well within its recent range and struggling to post new highs.

The dollar was flat against the euro at $1.1321, while the pound was also largely unchanged at $1.3551.

Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex, noted that the dollar’s breakout earlier in the month has clearly been a false one, leaving the yen as the biggest gainer of the year to date among G10 currencies, with a 1.2%.

However, the usual correlations between risk assets have broken down, Chandler added. The second-best performing currency so far this year, he notes, is the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar.

The paradox is nowhere clearer than with the Russian ruble, which tested another nine-month low against the dollar in early dealings in Europe on concerns that last week’s diplomatic breakthrough won’t be enough to stop a second Russian invasion of Ukraine in eight years.

The State Department has instructed the families of U.S. diplomats in Ukraine to leave the country, suggesting that the U.S. still attaches a high probability to the risk of conflict. The U.K. followed suit on Monday.

The ruble fell to 77.479 to the dollar, despite ongoing strength in the price of crude oil, which typically determines its direction.

Developments in eastern Europe are, however, likely to take a back seat to those in Washington DC later in the week. The Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee starts a two-day meeting on Tuesday and is sure to give the dollar fresh direction.

For now, short-term interest rate futures suggest a possibility that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds target range by more than 25 basis points by the end of the quarter, implying a small risk of either a rate hike this week, or a 50-basis point hike in March. The overwhelming consensus, however, remains a first 25 basis point hike in March, which means that the most important developments at the Fed will be its guidance, especially with regard to when – and how fast – it will start to sell its accumulated bond portfolio back into the market.

U.S. Treasury yields rose in the first three weeks of the year, in part due to expectations of higher net supply driven by Fed sales of bonds during the year. But having peaked at over 1.80% last week, the 10-year Treasury yield is now back down at 1.76%.

In Europe, the main focus on Monday is likely to be on preliminary purchasing managers indices for January. Also of note will be the Deutsche Bundesbank's monthly report, given German concerns about the 30-year high in inflation in the country and the lack of European Central Bank willingness to react by tightening monetary policy.

01/24/2022

Stocks and indices are getting slammed, and US dollar is gaining before the FOMC. We saw that one before, but the drop's magnitude on stocks is panic-like and may not be easily stopped.

Today, we will leave stocks and focus on the Forex market. Today we will look at the GBP/USD pair, which is getting ready for a major bearish reversal.

The whole of December and the first week of January were great for the cable. The price moved with great respect for the principles of the technical analysis.

First, the bearish correction managed to stop on the 38,2% Fibonacci, which is a vital support. In addition to this, the whole correction was shaped like a flag (green), which often increases the chances for the trend continuation.

The breakout of the 23.6% Fibo and the upper line of the flag happened at the beginning of the year and gave us a legitimate buy signal. The legitimate signal happened to be a false one, unfortunately.

Buyers wasted a very handsome price action setup, and the price reversed, creating a false breakout pattern (red). Price is now back below the Fibo and the upper line of the flag. With that, the signal can be only one: sell.

The sentiment is negative, as long as we stay inside the flag. Price climbing back above can be considered a buy signal, but chances for that are now limited.

12/10/2021

Analysis by JFDTEAM:

GBP/NZD traded higher yesterday, after hitting support at 1.9352. However, the recovery remained limited near the crossroads of the 1.9500 level and the prior upside support line drawn from the low of Nov. 8. With that in mind, we believe that the bears could take charge again soon and push the rate back down.

However, in order to get more confident on the downside, we would like to see a clear dip below yesterday’s low of 1.9352. This will confirm a forthcoming lower low on the 4-hour chart and may see scope for declines towards the low of Nov. 24, at 1.9163, or the 1.9125 zone, which provided support on Nov. 18. If the bears are not willing to stop there, then a break lower could pave the way towards the 1.8975 territory, which provided support on Nov. 10 and 15.

Looking at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI hit resistance at 50 and looks ready to start topping, while the MACD, although above its trigger line, shows signs of topping as well within its negative territory. Both indicators suggest that the rate may start gaining downside speed again, which adds to the case of a forthcoming negative wave.

12/10/2021

The USDJPY has moved back below the 100 hour MA
The USDJPY is trading lower on CPI relief. Stocks (risk on) are higher but yields are back toward unchanged on the day after being higher earlier.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved back below its 100 hour moving average at 113.555, but does remain above its 200 hour moving average at 113.327. That 200 hour moving average initially held support during yesterday's trade, dipped below it and failed quickly later in the day. Today, the 200 hour moving average held support again (see green numbered circles). So, traders are paying attention to that technical level.

11/11/2021

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11/11/2021

The euro dropped as the European Central Bank is seen lagging on policy tightening. It slipped to $1.1454 on Thursday, its lowest since July 2020.

"With relative COVID trends still moving against Europe and a broader more negative EM/China backdrop it is hard to see this relative growth under-performance reverse any time soon," said George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn), adding the euro could weaken as far as $1.12.

Sterling was also down at a new 11-month low of $1.3365. Data showing Britain's economy lagging rivals in the July-September period did little to help.

The yen extended a sharp reversal of recent gains to fall to 114.15 per dollar - close to the Japanese currency's four-year low of 114.69 reached last month. The Australian and New Zealand dollars recorded one-month troughs.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose to as high as 95.101, its strongest since July 2020.

"The hawkish repricing of Fed policy expectations has reinforced the U.S. dollar's upward momentum from the previous week in which it had already benefitted from the other G10 central banks pushing back against rate hike expectations outside of the U.S," said Lee Hardman, currencies analyst at MUFG.

U.S. government bond yields have risen sharply, including the 30-year Treasury yield passing 1.5%.

After the surge in Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices fall, the difference between five-year U.S. yields and yields at the same tenor in Japan and Germany is wider - in favour of Treasuries - than at any time since early 2020. [US/]

Emerging market (EM) currencies have also suffered from the dollar's broad rise, with MSCI's EM currencies index suffering its sharpest drop in two months.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped, pulled lower by the jump in the U.S. dollar. The Aussie fell half a percent to a one-month low of $0.7287 and the Kiwi dropped 0.6% to $0.7013. [AUD/]

Elsewhere, Turkey's lira tumbled to a new record low of 9.97 to the dollar after the U.S. inflation reading and as expectations grow Turkey will cut rates again soon.

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar rose to 16-month highs against the euro and other currencies on Thursday, and the yen fell back towards multi-year lows, after the hottest U.S. inflation reading in a generation encouraged bets on interest rate hikes.

U.S. consumer prices grew last month at their fastest annual pace since 1990, data showed, and traders think the Federal Reserve could respond by lifting interest rates faster than in Europe or Japan.

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The euro dropped as the European Central Bank is seen lagging on policy tightening. It slipped to $1.1454 on Thursday, its lowest since July 2020.

"With relative COVID trends still moving against Europe and a broader more negative EM/China backdrop it is hard to see this relative growth under-performance reverse any time soon," said George Saravelos, a strategist at Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn), adding the euro could weaken as far as $1.12.

Sterling was also down at a new 11-month low of $1.3365. Data showing Britain's economy lagging rivals in the July-September period did little to help.

The yen extended a sharp reversal of recent gains to fall to 114.15 per dollar - close to the Japanese currency's four-year low of 114.69 reached last month. The Australian and New Zealand dollars recorded one-month troughs.

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose to as high as 95.101, its strongest since July 2020.

"The hawkish repricing of Fed policy expectations has reinforced the U.S. dollar's upward momentum from the previous week in which it had already benefitted from the other G10 central banks pushing back against rate hike expectations outside of the U.S," said Lee Hardman, currencies analyst at MUFG.

U.S. government bond yields have risen sharply, including the 30-year Treasury yield passing 1.5%.

After the surge in Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices fall, the difference between five-year U.S. yields and yields at the same tenor in Japan and Germany is wider - in favour of Treasuries - than at any time since early 2020. [US/]

Emerging market (EM) currencies have also suffered from the dollar's broad rise, with MSCI's EM currencies index suffering its sharpest drop in two months.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped, pulled lower by the jump in the U.S. dollar. The Aussie fell half a percent to a one-month low of $0.7287 and the Kiwi dropped 0.6% to $0.7013. [AUD/]

Elsewhere, Turkey's lira tumbled to a new record low of 9.97 to the dollar after the U.S. inflation reading and as expectations grow Turkey will cut rates again soon.

11/03/2021

AUD/USD is trading sideways at the time of this post with FOMC to release a statement later today.

We are looking for an initial move to the average true range (ATR) target near the 0.7368 area. Watch the pair for any change in direction.

The ATR for the pair currently is 61 pips per day, and its 180-day average is 63 pips.

11/03/2021

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher on Wednesday, holding near recent peaks versus the euro and the yen, as traders awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected announcement on unwinding its pandemic-era stimulus and any word from Chair Jerome Powell on inflationary pressures.

The Fed's policy statement, which will likely kick off the tapering of its $120 billion-a-month asset purchase program, is due at 2 p.m. Eastern time (1800 GMT), followed by a news conference with Powell.

"Markets will be on the lookout for any discussion about the pace of tapering and any signs that the recent inflation surge has spooked the Fed," said Mark McCormick (NYSE:MKC), global head of FX strategy at TD Securities.

Any signal that Powell is open to responding with rate hikes to inflation, if the case for it being transitory keeps weakening, would reinforce the supportive U.S. dollar backdrop, he said.

The dollar index was 0.027% higher at 94.135, close to its 2021 peak of 94.563 hit last month.

Moves were small in the overnight session in the middle of a busy week for central banks, with the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.

European Central Bank Christine Lagarde said an interest rate rise in 2022 was very unlikely because inflation was too low, sending government bond yields lower. But the euro barely budged.

Against the euro the greenback was down marginally at $1.15715. That was not far from the $1.1522 low for the euro reached in October, which was the strongest level for the dollar since July 2020.

Dollar/yen traded at 113.955, near a four-year high.

INFLATION QUESTION

The Fed announcement follows meetings of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday and the ECB last Wednesday, both of which pushed back against market pricing of tighter policy.

"The dollar bearish case today is that the tapering is widely expected and an inherently dovish Fed, concerned about upsetting the bond market, does not change its statement substantially," ING strategists wrote.

"Yet, at some point, the Fed is going to have to acknowledge that elevated inflation does not 'largely reflect transitory factors'. Many dovish central banks around the world are already doing this and should the Fed start to show greater concern about this today, U.S. rates and the dollar could get a boost."

The RBA on Tuesday abandoned its short-term yield target and dropped its expectation of holding rates at record lows until 2024, though the Aussie fell because the bank also pushed back on aggressive pricing for 2022 hikes.

The Aussie dropped 1.2% against the dollar on Tuesday and sat at $0.74275 on Wednesday, down 0.01% from the session open. The New Zealand dollar was also dragged 1% lower on Tuesday, but found support on Wednesday from strong labor data and was up 0.37% at $0.7134. [AUD/]

Money markets have dialed back expectations for a 15 basis point hike from the Bank of England on Thursday but still expect one before 2022.

"The key question is how effective an interest rate hike will be in controlling inflation, mainly driven by supply chain issues, as we emerge from the pandemic," said Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM.

The BoE is also focused on labor data and may decide to hold off on rate increases on Thursday, as "they will not want to hike rates too soon and risk crippling businesses’ recoveries," he said.

Sterling recovered from a two-week low to trade 0.22% higher $1.3642.

11/02/2021

Written by JFD TEAM

EUR/GBP climbed higher on Monday, breaking above the 0.8472 zone, which provided resistance on Oct. 28, and acted as decent support between Oct. 7 and 13. Today, the rate met resistance at 0.8513, and then it pulled back.

Overall, the pair has continued to print higher highs and higher lows above a short-term upside support line since Oct. 26, and thus, even if we see some further retreat, we will continue to see a positive short-term picture.

As we already noted, the retreat may continue for a while more, perhaps towards the 0.8472 barrier, from which the bulls may retake charge.

This may result in a rebound and another test near the 0.8513 level, or near the peak of Oct. 6, at 0.8526. A break higher may pave the way towards the inside swing low of Oct. 1, at 0.8545, the break of which could carry extensions towards the peak of Oct. 4, at 0.8573.

Looking at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI turned down after hitting its 70 line, while the MACD, although above both it's zero and trigger lines, shows signs that it could start topping as well.

Both indicators suggest that the high upside speed may start easing somewhat now, which aligns with the view that some further retreat may be looming for now.

To abandon the bullish case and start examining whether the bears have gained complete control, we would like to see a dip below 0.8462.

This may signal the break below the aforementioned upside line and could pave the way towards the low of Oct. 29, the break of which may take the rate to the low of the day before, at around 0.8420.

Slightly lower lies another, more critical barrier, the 0.8402 zone, defined as a support by the low of Oct. 26.

11/02/2021

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar eased versus its main rivals on Monday, after posting its biggest daily rise in more than four months in the previous session, as traders position themselves ahead of this week's highly anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Monetary policy in the United States, Australia and Britain is in focus, with the Fed widely expected to announce a tapering of stimulus, a factor that has fueled the greenback's rise in recent weeks.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was down 0.321% at 93.894.

"It ran up so much the last couple of days, I think it's just a little bit of pre-positioning ahead of FOMC just in case they remain relatively dovish," Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX at BK Asset Management, said of the dollar's pullback.

On Friday, the greenback hit its highest level since Oct. 13, rising 0.8% in its biggest single-day move since mid-June, on the back of a 4.4% jump in the government's index of core personal consumption expenditures - the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

"I still think there's quite a strong chance that they'll try to downplay inflation and still stick to the transitory message as much as possible because I don't think they really want to create truly tightening conditions just yet," Schlossberg said of the Fed's policy announcement, due on Wednesday.

Quickening inflation data has prompted some investment banks such as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to advance their expectations of a rate hike by the Fed as early as July 2022, compared with the third quarter of 2023 previously.

"You had a move on Friday based on the PCE and you've got a little bit of a pullback right here," Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet.com said. "Nobody is quite sure of what the Fed is going to do."

Money markets assign a 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed by next June, compared with 15% a month earlier, CME futures data shows.

The euro ticked 0.037% higher to $1.16045, after having given up most of its European Central Bank policy gains on Friday when it touched $1.1535, its weakest since Oct. 13.

Hedge fund manager Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital in a note to clients said FX markets seem too hawkish on the ECB and too dovish on the Fed.

"With a large overhang of long euro positions among the real money community, I believe the euro will remain vulnerable in the months and quarters ahead against the dollar," he said.

The Aussie dollar slid 0.01% to $0.7518, having fallen off its nearly four-month high of $0.75555 reached last week, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision on Tuesday.

The British pound fell to its lowest in more than two weeks versus the dollar, pressured by uncertainty over the Bank of England's policy stance and an escalating post-Brexit spat with France over fishing rights.

Most expect the Bank of England will raise rates by 15 basis points to 0.25% on Thursday, although a split vote is likely and some think the bank may hold fire, contenting itself with a hawkish signal.

11/02/2021

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09/16/2021

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