Musso Retirement Advisors

02/02/2026

Weekly Market Commentary

05/05/2025

Last week saw a significant rebound in the U.S. stock market, with major indexes posting gains of around 3%, building on the positive momentum from the prior week. The S&P 500 achieved its longest winning streak since November 2004, marking nine consecutive days of gains. This upward trend was supported by an April employment report that exceeded economists' forecasts for the second consecutive month. The economy added 177,000 new jobs, surpassing the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.

However, economic data released last week presented a mixed picture. First-quarter GDP contracted by 0.3% annually, the first negative reading since the first quarter of 2022. This downturn was largely attributed to a surge in imports as businesses stocked up ahead of anticipated higher tariffs. Despite this, personal consumption rose by 1.8%, and business investment climbed by a robust 21.9%.

The first-quarter corporate earnings season continued to show strength, with approximately 76% of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises. Overall earnings growth for the quarter was on track for 12.5% year over year, exceeding initial expectations. However, guidance for second-quarter earnings growth has weakened, reflecting concerns about consumer spending and the uncertain trade environment.

Large-cap technology companies like Microsoft and Meta reported strong capital expenditure plans, particularly in AI and datacenter growth, which was well-received by the market. Conversely, consumer-facing companies such as Amazon and Apple provided softer guidance, citing tariffs and trade uncertainty, especially regarding sales in China. McDonald's and other food service companies also noted a softening in consumer demand, particularly among lower-income consumers.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain current interest rates at its upcoming meeting. However, interest rate futures markets indicate that investors anticipate at least three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year. The market's recent rebound reflects positive first-quarter data and perceived progress in trade negotiations, although the sustainability of these gains hinges on concrete developments in trade and the broader economic outlook. Analysts caution that market pullbacks are normal, especially amid potential inflation concerns and softer growth. Nonetheless, there is optimism for improved market sentiment towards year-end, driven by potential Fed rate cuts and a recovery in earnings growth expected in 2026.

Price 4/28-5/2 Year-to-Date
Dow Jones Average 41,317 3.0% -2.9%
S&P 500 5,687 2.9% -3.3%
Nasdaq 17,978 3.4% -6.9%

07/08/2024

Market Commentary – July 5th, 2024

The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 pushed their record levels higher again, posting weekly total returns of 3.5% and 2.0%, respectively. For the NASDAQ, it was the tenth positive week out of the past eleven. The Dow gained 0.7% and remained 1.6% below its record set in mid-May.

An index that tracks U.S. small-cap stocks trailed a large-cap benchmark by a wide margin for the week, extending small caps’ year-to-date underperformance. For the week, the Russell 2000 Index was down 1.0% at Friday’s close versus a 1.8% total return for its large-cap peer.

In our view, if inflation continues to moderate and the economy softens but does not fall into a downturn or recession, markets should continue to perform well. It implies the Fed will likely begin its interest rate-cutting cycle, even as the economy is growing near trend levels. If the economy falters and the Fed must cut rates to support growth, markets will likely not hold up as well, but we don’t see signs of this. Keep in mind that the economy and labor market started from a position of outsized strength that may now be gradually normalizing.

Companies in the S&P 500 modestly increased their dividend payments in this year’s second quarter as a handful of large-cap stocks began paying dividends for the first time. Companies in the S&P 500 paid out $153.4 billion in dividends, up more than 1% from $151.6 billion in this year’s first quarter, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Thursday will show whether May’s stable inflation extended into June. The CPI report covering May showed an annual rate of 3.3%—better than economists’ consensus forecast for 3.4%, but unchanged from the prior month’s figure.

Price 6/28-7/5 Year-to-Date
Dow Jones Average 39,376 0.7% 4.5%
S&P 500 5,567 2.0% 16.7%
Nasdaq 18,353 3.5% 22.3%

Bloomberg, Ed Jones, John Hancock, JP Morgan, Monthly S&P Price Performance

09/21/2022

https://conta.cc/3xGMEPL

Market Commentary - Sept. 16th - 2022   Dear P. David,, I want to give you an update on what has been happening over the past week. At Musso Retirement Advisors, we are dedicated to keeping you cons

10/26/2021

https://conta.cc/3b9h01P

10/18/2021

Here is my weekly market commentary.

11/19/2020

Two of the 3 major indexes closed higher this week with the Dow leading the way. The markets have gained almost 10% over the past 2 weeks and posted their first 8 day winning streak since April. The recent increase came on the heels of positive news on the development of a COVID-19 vaccine with Pfizer showing data of a 90% efficacy in clinical trials. This caused a major rotation of stocks which saw the much-maligned value stocks outperformed growth by over 6% for the week as money flowed away from the “stay at home” stocks.

As a general rule, the financial markets do not like uncertainty, but the markets have continued to drive higher in the midst of political risk and the alarming trajectory of new COVID cases. Though the spike in new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations will likely be the key instigator of market swings in the weeks ahead the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel got a bit brighter this past week.

The passing of the presidential election also contributed to the rally. Though there are 2 more Senate races in Georgia, which will be held in early January, the markets are presuming Republicans will win at least one of the races and maintain control of the Senate, thus creating a divided government. If the Democrats happen to sweep both seats, we will fully expect renewed political market volatility and near-term equity risk based on the potential for increased taxes and regulations.

The positive vaccine data caused oil to jump over 7%, moving back over $40 a barrel bringing it back up 16% from a recent November 1st low. Also, rates continued their increase where the 10-year Treasury touched north of .90% for the first time since early June.
As we await more vaccine news, we expect the markets to creep higher on continued positive anticipation though cases continue to rise and restrictions may be implemented once again.

Price Week Year-to Date
Dow Jones Average 29,480 4.1% 3.3%
S&P 500 3,585 2.2% 11.0%
NASDAQ 11,829 -0.6% 31.8%

11/19/2020

Stock Market Commentary