07/14/2026
Long read for those interested....
When people ask me about rates thoughts swirl in my mind like a tornado. I am glad I now have Ai to help me put all those thoughts together.
If you are waiting to purchase a home when rates get extremely lower, depending on your age, you may get better use of buying a casket instead. The time to buy is now.
REMEMBER. Ai is tool and is constantly learning from our input and data. If its Supervised, Unsupervised, or Reinforced, make sure you used it responsibly.
These are my thoughts and Ideas using Ai as a tool for research and is my opinion backed by data and could be absolutely incorrect.
📈 How Presidential Elections Swing Mortgage Rates: A 50-Year Technical Deep-Dive 📉
If you look at mortgage rates the same way a technical trader analyzes Gold or Crypto, a fascinating pattern emerges. Instead of getting lost in daily economic noise, we can focus strictly on price action, major trend shifts, and historical supply and demand—to map out exactly where rates could head next.
Let’s look at the data, the historical terms, and the key technical setups.
🔍 Part 1: The 50-Year Macro View (1976–2026)
When you zoom out to a 50-year horizon, today's ~6.5% rates aren't actually "high"—they are incredibly close to the historical median.
Looking at the multi-decade chart, we see three distinct macro cycles:
The Great Inflation (1976–1981): Spanning the Carter (D) and early Reagan (R) terms, inflation pushed mortgage rates to an all-time peak of 16.63% in 1981.
The 40-Year Structural Decline (1981–2021): A massive sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, eventually bottoming out at an artificial low of 3.15% in 2021 (Joe Biden's term) following emergency post-pandemic rate cuts.
The Market Structure Shift (2022–Present): In 2022, the massive spike to 7.00% broke above the 2018 high of 4.70%. In trading terms, breaking a multi-year lower high is a Market Structure Shift (MSS) from bearish to bullish.
📊 Part 2: The 4-Year Term Breakdown
How do individual presidencies stack up? Historically, some of the most drastic rate movements occur during the post-crisis years.
🔴 Ronald Reagan - Term 1 (R | 1981-1985): Term Average 14.44% | Net Change: -4.20% (Inherited the peak and rode the Fed’s massive rate cuts).
🔵 Bill Clinton - Term 1 (D | 1993-1997): Term Average 7.80% | Net Change: +0.29%
🔴 George W. Bush - Term 2 (R | 2005-2009): Term Average 6.08% | Net Change: -0.55%
🔵 Barack Obama - Term 2 (D | 2013-2017): Term Average 4.08% | Net Change: -0.02%
🔴 Donald Trump - Term 1 (R | 2017-2021): Term Average 3.90% | Net Change: -0.99% (Hit historic pandemic lows).
🔵 Joe Biden (D | 2021-2025): Term Average 5.85% | Net Change: +3.51% (The post-pandemic inflation shock triggered the sharpest upward rate spike on the modern chart).
🔴 Donald Trump - Term 2 (R | 2025-2026): Term Average 6.49% | Net Change: -0.34% (Our current consolidation phase).
🔮 Part 3: The Trading Playbook (Which Way Next?)
If we treat this chart like Bitcoin or Gold, the price action is currently carving out a massive Bullish Flag / Cup and Handle pattern. Here are the two technical scenarios depending on the next political shift:
📈 Scenario A: The Bullish Continuation (Rates Up)
Historically, Democratic policies lean toward higher public spending and fiscal expansion. If bond investors anticipate stickier inflation under a future Democratic administration, they will demand higher yields to hold government debt.
The Technical Path: Rates pull back to find a "Higher Low" in the 5.50%–6.00% support zone (classic resistance-turned-support) and bounce.
The Target: A surge back to retest the 7.00% ceiling, which, if cleared, opens a technical path to the next major liquidity pool near 8.00%.
📉 Scenario B: The Bearish Invalidation (Rates Down)
If an incoming administration triggers a sharp economic cooldown (e.g., via aggressive tax increases), or if global macro pressures spark a recession, capital will aggressively flee into safe-haven Treasuries, driving yields down.
The Technical Path: The 5.50% support floor fails to hold. Price slides downward to test the ultimate "Stop-Loss" / Invalidation Level at 4.70% (the 2018 peak).
The Target: Breaking below 4.70% completely ruins the bullish structure, sending mortgage rates back down into the 3%–4% range.
💡 The Takeaway
In professional trading, we don't gamble on predictions—we trade the levels. Keep your eyes on the 5.50%–6.00% zone on the chart. How the market defends or breaks that level during the next election cycle will tell you exactly where mortgage rates are headed next!
If you are waiting to purchase a home when rates get extremely lower, depending on your age, you may get better use of buying a casket instead. The time to buy is now.
FYI...The connection between housing and mortgage rates works as a feedback loop. High mortgage rates reduce purchasing power, which typically cools prices. However, when home prices inflate, they drive up shelter costs, which is a major component of CPI. This forces the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer, pushing mortgage rates even higher and creating a lock-in effect.
