12/10/2025
Today's Topic — 11/11 US Stock Market Focus
Welcome to TrendHorizon's daily US stock market news. Here are three key points to watch today:
1. The risk of a US government shutdown has eased.
The United States Senate has approved an appropriations bill to end the government shutdown, which is now going to the House of Representatives for a vote. Market sentiment has been boosted, as this is one of the longest government shutdowns in US history, and a successful end is expected to provide positive support for economic activity.
However, at the same time:
While political risks have eased, economic data will be flooded – employment, output, and inflation could all cause volatility.
The valuation of large-cap technology stocks remains a concern for the market.
📌 Insight: If the shutdown is lifted, the market may enter a "rebound expectation" phase. However, if data or corporate earnings fall short of expectations, it could quickly turn into a "realization of concerns" phase.
👉 Corresponding sectors: Defensive + cyclical (e.g., industrials, financials) or technology differentiation (depending on valuation).
2. Tech Sector Gains Slow — Valuation Anxiety Resurfaces
Despite a market-wide gain yesterday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite opened lower today, primarily due to valuation pressures on tech stocks and the news of the sale of Nvidia Corporation shares.
SoftBank's sale of its entire stake in Nvidia triggered questions about the sustainability of the AI boom.
This has led to a cooling of the tech sector, subtly shifting market risk appetite.
📌 Insight: While the tech sector remains a structural highlight, we've entered a "stock picking" era rather than a period of precipitous declines. Companies with extremely high valuations and already priced in growth expectations are likely to be prioritized for market validation.
👉 Investment framework could shift towards: "Technologies with certain earnings" or "Non-tech sectors with stronger valuation safety margins."
3. Market Sentiment: A Mix of Rebound and Caution
Overall, the market is shifting from concerns about a policy stalemate to a focus on fundamentals.
Yesterday saw a strong rebound: the S&P 500 rose nearly 1.5% in a single day.
However, early trading today shows a weak opening, indicating that while bulls are active, they haven't yet dared to push higher.
Morning Star
📌 Insight: In this state, the market may exhibit a rapid rebound but limited sustainability. Therefore, in the short term, "structural opportunities" are preferable to "broad-based rallies."
👉 Guidelines: Focus on the dual triggers of "policy + data," and set appropriate risk controls.
📅 Trading Suggestions (For reference only):
Short-term strategy: Prioritize sectors that benefit from policies or have high data elasticity, such as defense, infrastructure, and finance.
Mid-term strategy: Select reasonably valued and clearly growing technology stocks; avoid overvalued stocks based on speculative sentiment.
Risk control perspective: If ① the government's restart fails or ② data deteriorates in the future, the market may experience a correction. Set stop-loss orders and manage position sizing.
➡️ Tomorrow's Focus:
US employment data & inflation figures
Recent earnings/guidance releases from tech companies
Progress of the government shutdown bill in the House of Representatives
