10/15/2026
September just set a record, and not the good kind. 📉
14.5% of home purchase agreements fell through last month, according to Redfin. That's the highest cancellation rate for any September on record.
Some context on how unusual that is:
📊 The only months ever higher were March and April 2020, when the pandemic froze everything
📊 From 2017 to 2019, this number never once topped 12%
📊 Sellers outnumbered buyers by about 63% in September, the widest gap ever recorded
And Florida is right in the middle of it. Jacksonville posted the highest cancellation rate in the country at 19.9%, with Tampa close behind at 18.8%. That's roughly 1 in 5 deals falling apart before closing.
What's driving it? Buyers are feeling the pressure. Many are stretching their budgets just to get into a home, so there's very little room for surprises. A rate that wasn't locked moves up and suddenly the payment doesn't work. An inspection report turns up repairs that would've been manageable a few years ago, but now there's no cash cushion to absorb them. These aren't buyers looking for a way out. They're buyers who simply ran out of margin.
That's exactly why having a clear plan on your rate lock, your payment, and your cash reserves before you go under contract matters so much right now.
So I'm curious: are you seeing this in your market? Agents, how many deals have you had fall through lately? Buyers and sellers, what's your experience been?
