David Sentance Financial Insights

David Sentance Financial Insights Counteracting misconceptions in finance learned over forty years of practice in the financial field.

How Rugby intends to crack the US market.
09/18/2024

How Rugby intends to crack the US market.

Special report: Leading unions sceptical about World Rugby’s focus on – and investment in – growing game in US ahead of 2031 World Cup there

How to keep your employees amid creative chaos. Saw the same at SpaceEx which had conference rooms all over the place an...
08/27/2024

How to keep your employees amid creative chaos. Saw the same at SpaceEx which had conference rooms all over the place and Elon Musk's Iron Man costume out front.

Many of the chipmaker’s employees have grown rich but still face a stress-filled work life.

08/27/2024

Despite hybrid work, major city centers from Nashville to Manhattan are filling up with people again.

Love cricket history. HH Stephenson played in Australia 1862 because of the American Civil War-then became Oundle coach.
08/14/2024

Love cricket history. HH Stephenson played in Australia 1862 because of the American Civil War-then became Oundle coach.

There have been 49 Test hat-tricks. Dominic Cork learned from a previous failure and was successful for England in 1995

11/04/2021

Real Estate and Taxes
Zillow announced this week it is getting out of the house flipping business. It has got caught holding excess inventory in a declining market. The losses so far are in the $300million range and the stock dropped 23% yesterday. Corporate buyers such as Zillow have been one of the factors driving the increase in house prices in this low interest rate environment. Meanwhile, Congress is discussing whether the standard home deduction limit imposed during the last tax re-vamp should be increased from $10,000 to $74,000. This increase limit would benefit high-end real-estate home owners in California and New York. Whether this tax deduction increase -if it passes-encourages increased house prices remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, real estate which represents 25% of the American economy is probably set for a downward revaluation, especially if the Fed raises interest rates. This last scenario remains less likely now that inflation for life essentials such as food or gas has kicked into gear. Earnings reports for consumer stocks are solid and high-end luxury goods were on a tear last quarter-up 200%. Commodities thrive in such an environment.

10/07/2021

Margin interest and option activity are at all time highs in the stock market. Real estate which has driven the Chinese economic growth is slowing. Commodity prices are up. Cargo ships in Long Beach cannot be unloaded fast enough .Supply and demand are out of sync, so opportunity abounds for cool heads.

09/10/2021

Real Estate in LA headed for a $1million median entry price.

With the median house price $785,000 in Los Angeles for the average 1500 square foot house affordability resides with those earning $150,000 a year. That is in a market where 23% of purchases a made by house buyers looking to flip properties as average mortgage rates have declined from $6500 to $4500 per month on a $800,000 loan required for purchase. Most buyers are bidding up properties $100,000 over asking to beat cash purchasers funded by asset gatherers such as the Blackstone group. The Blackstone Group has upped its commitment to private housing purchases propping up the real estate market as individual home buyers compete with corporate dollars for a rung on America's housing ladder. Interest rates going up will reduce the affordability of housing and the Fed knows this. Do you wait for the Fed to taper or buy now? After 10 years the property will likely be worth 2x what it is now and if you are of the Millennial generation your $1million house may be worth $4million in 20 years. What's your staying power when interest rates go up.? Fixed mortgages can avoid that pain. In 2008 many home buyers were on adjustable mortgages with balloon payments required after 7 years ( the average retention rate of a house prior to moving). When it came time to refinance credit rules had tightened making it more difficult to retain the home. Home affordability will increase if multiple mixed residence requirements which are commonly evaded by home builders are enforced. In the current affordability environment expect the single house on a lot to get overlooked by condo developments on its borders as denser zoning requirements are enacted as Los Angeles expands its global imprint.

The American North West economic region. Since the negotiation of the Oregon Treaty between Britain and the US in 1846, ...
08/08/2021

The American North West economic region.
Since the negotiation of the Oregon Treaty between Britain and the US in 1846, the American North West has developed a unique economic personality. Archaeological evidence points to trading realationships between Indian tribes throughout what is referred to now as the Salish Sea. The Salish sea encompasses Puget Sound and Vancouver Island which were a geographical and cultural entity before an international boundary commission separated Canada . In 1856, the Royal Navy moved its Pacific Coast fleet home port from Valparaiso, Chile to Esquimalt Bay on Vancouver Island. This move was made in response to British participation in the Crimean War. Hospitals to tend wounded troops were set up on the island but Florence Nightingale’s minions never saw action on the Island. South of the border the old Hudson Bay system continued to retain its template transforming economically from hunting beaver and sea otters to agriculture based around Fort Vancouver and Fort Nisqually. There was no US Navy to speak of in the NorthWest in the nineteenth century. The Royal Navy patrolled the Pacific until 1909 when it realigned it’s worldwide fleets in response to the German Naval Race. By this time America has built a fort system integrating howitzers, huge mortars capable of launching solid cannonballs seven miles and guns built into sunken fort emplacements at Fort Werden near Port Townsend on the Kitsap Peninsula. With the advent of aircraft and battleship guns with longer range than fort guns the NorthWest military industrial complex required updating. At Silverdale, a nuclear submarine base was established on the Kitsap Peninsular. It became the most important submarine base on the West Coast. Supplemented with naval repair yards at Bellingham and Bremerton, Puget Sound became home to a diverse merchant and naval fleet serving multifarious needs from crabbing in Alaska to transporting passengers across the Sound. Railways which linked Seattle to the American hinterland from 1893 were another spur for local development as logging increasingly dominated the once pristine landscape. An additional economic spurt was provided by the Klondike Gold Rush of 1898 which centered around Seattle for supplies in the rugged Canadian North. By 1900 the Rush was over but the financial optimism generated by the short Guilded Age is best illustrated by the Victorian buildings of Port Townsend which stopped building abruptly in 1898 when logging ended in the area. Today Seattle’s military industrial complex keeps a low profile. Occasionally, a veritable flotilla of naval vessels will clear a nautical path for a nuclear submarine headed for a six month deployment underwater. Across the Sound from Silverdale submarine base are the the military airfields of Whideby Island strategically located to intercept Russian and Chinese ordinance. Boeing with its factories at Bremerton and Renton have become part of the military industrial manufacturing backbone of the NorthWest since the 1930’s. As America sets its sights on Mars, plans for heading off local terrestrial threats, may be subsumed by efforts to colonize new planets as we foul up our own. Vision for Earth’s future will be a responsibility of the Millenial generation. However it pans out, the NorthWest will play a crucial role in any future developments.

08/06/2021

Seattle and the Olympic and economy.
When I shipped out for The Aleutian Islands aboard Western Pioneer’s Sculpin, the fisheries supply crew were responsible for Carling’s Black Label deliveries to fishery processing vessels along the Aleutian Island chain. We also carried a float plane, several small fishing boats and MacDonald’s hamburger patties. In Chignick Lagoon to relieve the stress of unloading overboard by crane as we stacked Dungeness crab for the return home, we manufactured water ski boards out of plywood and water skied behind a Zodiac. These memories of Alaska in my 20’s came flooding back as we traversed the north end of the Olympic Peninsular from a base on Discovery Bay named by George Vancouver in 1792 for his ship HMS Discovery-the same ship that Captain Cook sailed into Kalakaua Bay on Kona Island, the day he was killed. After traversing Hurricane Ridge our party dropped into Port Townsend for a meal. The wait was two hours and owners were serving the meals. The depredations of Covid on the service economy of the Olympics were obvious. Prior to driving to the Olympics car repair times required a two week wait in West Seattle where mechanics were in short supply. Speaking with a Boeing engineer his diagnosis of the 737 airworthiness issue was a shortage of good IT guys in a Seattle economy where Microsoft and Amazon competed for the same electrical engineer talent. The NorthWest has always been subject to boom and bust cycles. The company I shipped out with in 1977 no longer owns a fleet of ships transporting King Salmon and King Crab back from the Aleutian Islands. After selling off its fleet it sold its soul to TV for the World’s Most Dangerous catch. As Salmon and King Crab crashed for fishing , century old rockfish so prolific in Puget Sound soon required catch restrictions. As the Pallyup Indian nation regained their fishing rights by Supreme Court Boldt Act, local Seattle fishing increasingly was limited. The biological base of the NorthWest economy logging and fish sustained by the Mosquito fleet of steamers until the 1920’s transformed to the Washington State Ferry System which carried cars as roads were built around the Sound. By 1951 when Washington State Ferries acquires the assets of the last MosquitoFleet Company, Puget Sound Navigation, the ferry system operated 22 ferries serving 20 terminals on 10 routes.Tourism became viable as hunting and fishing trips so much a staple of 1920’s Seattle became less a staple of NorthWest culture. Seattle has been forced to curb it appetite first for gold in the Klondike Rush of 1898 through the crash of various fish species in the Sound. Lumber mills disgorging wood chip effluent into pristine waters where they poisoned keystone herring populations were forced to accept regulation to survive. For the NorthWest to flourish the human predator has been forced to curb its appetite and adapt to new conditions. Today logging towns still hold on in the depressed southern Olympics but the future path to new economy pay and wages is now defined by Amazon, Starbucks and Microsoft. These world beating companies were a chimera in the Salmon’s eye when Boeing was winning airplane racing records on Lake Washington in the 1930’s. I love Seattle and it’s inherent resilience. Currently, the service industries are hiring and offering benefits. For now service workers are gaining better wages but will there be enough?Scarcity and managing from fish to people remains central to NorthWest DNA . Bet on new NorthWest industries and your portfolio will be the better for it.

06/27/2021

Cruising turbulent finances in Covid
During Covid Carnival, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean collectively raised $40billion to stay afloat. The first quarter of 2021 they lost $4.5 billion according to the Associated Press. Factor this information into your stock purchase decision making.

Mathematical genius Sir Isaac Newton led emotions overcome logic when it came to the South Sea Bubble.
06/24/2021

Mathematical genius Sir Isaac Newton led emotions overcome logic when it came to the South Sea Bubble.

"The events of 1720, 1929, and, quite possibly right now, show that booms always overwhelm reason; markets are not always rational."

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