06/16/2022
𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗷𝘂𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗱 𝗔 𝗟𝗢𝗧 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸... 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻 𝗮𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱?
The short answer is that last Friday's inflation data sent markets spiraling, because inflation still shows no signs of slowing down. Inflation is bad for rates, and the reaction by markets pushed mortgage rates shooting higher Friday, only to continue higher on Monday and Tuesday as markets prepared for a larger Fed policy rate hike this week.
The Fed did indeed raise rates more than originally forecast today, by .75%. It is important to realize though that this rate increase was for the Fed's policy rate, the fed funds rate. This was not a direct increase to mortgage rates, which the Fed doesn't control and which had already increased in expectations of this move by the Fed.
The good news is that when the Fed raised rates this week, mortgage rates actually IMPROVED. That is because the markets had already priced the move in, and investors are happy to see the Fed is aggressively acting to bring down inflation. Although we have seen extreme volatility in rates, we could see rates continue to improve as we end the week.
𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗻𝗼 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗰𝗿𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗜'𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝗴𝗹𝗮𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗻𝘆𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗶𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗙𝗲𝗲𝗹 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗯𝘆 𝗽𝗵𝗼𝗻𝗲, 𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁, 𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗼𝗿 𝗗𝗠 𝗺𝗲.