Bravern Wealth

08/24/2026

Long-term Treasury yields hit levels not seen since 2007 this week, and investors' answer wasn't to sell everything — it was to buy gold.

The S&P 500 fell 1.4%, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.8%, as rising long-term rates pressured valuations, especially in tech. The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.33% intraweek — its highest since 2007 — before settling near 5.27%, driven by persistent inflation concerns and federal debt that has now topped $40 trillion.

Gold was the standout, climbing roughly 5.6% to a three-month high near $4,624/oz as a weaker dollar and fiscal worries fueled what's being called a "debasement trade." Oil also jumped on Middle East tensions, with WTI up 5.7% to $87.06 and Brent up 6.4% to $94.39, after President Trump threatened an "Economic D-Day" against Iran.

What we're watching:
● Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter earnings Wednesday, Aug. 26 — guidance calls for roughly $91 billion in revenue, a key read on AI infrastructure spending
● The Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, Aug. 27–29, for signals on balancing sticky inflation against softening jobs and consumer data
● Fed minutes showing a 9–3 vote to hold rates in July, with three officials pushing for a hike — a notable shift from June's unanimous decision
● The Treasury's plan to double the size of its long-end debt buybacks starting Sept. 9, aimed at easing pressure on 10- to 30-year yields

Bottom line: Last week's pullback reflects typical volatility, not a change in our underlying thesis. Rates, the dollar and geopolitics kept markets choppy, but with services and manufacturing activity still expanding, the debate over what comes next is far from settled. Our trend-following framework remains intact, and we're staying the course — watching Nvidia's earnings and the Fed's tone at Jackson Hole for the next catalyst.

Ben Ashby looks at why Moderna’s cancer vaccine breakthrough may matter even more to Merck as it prepares for life beyond Keytruda.

08/13/2026

JUST A REMINDER: THIS USED TO BE NORMAL.

Making coffee at home.
Packing your lunch.
Cooking dinner most nights.
Wearing clothes for years and not just a season or an event.
Keeping your phone until it actually needs replacing.
Buying used when used makes sense.
Driving your car long after the payment is gone if you didn’t purchase with cash.
Living in a home that fits your life…not your ego.

Somewhere along the way, living below your means started being called “cheap,” while being buried in payments became “normal.”

Try this instead:

Invest.
Build assets.
Buy back your time.
Create options.
Give generously.

Spend intentionally not because you can’t afford more, but because you’ve decided there are things more valuable than having more stuff. Like freedom, making memories with your family, etc..

Lifestyle inflation is easy.

Financial independence is intentional.

08/10/2026

08/03/2026

The Fed held rates steady, stocks bounced back, and a sharp sell-off in memory chip stocks turned out to be more of a gut check than a warning sign.

The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold its target rate at 3.5%-3.75%, a more divided vote than last time, with three members pushing for a rate hike instead. Investors weren't fully convinced by Fed Chair Warsh's read on inflation, and long-term Treasury yields rose as bond buyers demanded a bigger cushion for the risk. Stocks shook it off for the week: the S&P 500 gained 1.06% to close at 7,489.72, nearly erasing its loss for the month, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.6% to 25,373.85, though it's still down 3.2% since June.

Beneath the headline numbers, the rally broadened out. The equal-weighted S&P 500, which gives smaller companies the same say as the mega-caps, outpaced the regular index by more than 4 percentage points in July, a sign that gains are spreading beyond the handful of AI names that have dominated the market. The broader economy sent mixed but manageable signals: growth slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter, inflation eased to 3.7% but remains above the Fed's 2% target, and the job market stayed stable even as consumers felt less confident about current conditions.

What we're watching:
● Whether the memory chip sell-off (Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix all down 40% or more from their peaks) is a healthy reset or the start of something bigger
● How bond yields respond as markets weigh a more divided, hawkish-leaning Fed
● Whether the broader market's recent outperformance continues, or the rally narrows back to mega-cap tech
● Inflation and growth data as the Fed weighs its next move

Bottom line: The setup looks steadier than the headlines suggest. Growth is slowing but not stalling, inflation is easing but not solved, and even a sharp correction in chip stocks looks more like the market getting choosier than the AI story falling apart. Our technical gauges remain where they've been all along, focused, disciplined, and fully invested.

Memory chip stocks have cooled after a powerful AI rally. Learn why the pullback may represent a healthy reset rather than the end of the AI investment cycle.

07/27/2026

Tariffs, oil, and a bigger AI spending tab all arrived in the same week, and Wall Street decided the total was more than it wanted to pay.

It was a rough week for stocks. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6% to 7,411.98, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1% to 24,975.82, its worst week since late March, after Alphabet's Wednesday earnings report. The results were actually strong, with cloud revenue up 82% year-over-year, but investors focused on the bill still to come, since Alphabet raised its 2026 spending plans and warned 2027 costs would climb further. Mega-cap tech names lost nearly $800 billion in value in a single session, and Intel and Sandisk fell too, even after Intel posted a strong revenue forecast of its own.

Trade tensions added to the pressure. The White House imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, then new tariffs of 10-12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners, including the EU and China. Bond markets felt it most, with the 10-year Treasury yield surging to 4.69%, its highest level since January 2025, as traders began pricing in real odds the Fed could hike rates next week rather than hold steady. Amid the noise, the labor market stayed a bright spot, with jobless claims falling to their lowest level since 1969.

What we're watching:
● The Fed's rate decision Tuesday and Wednesday, with markets now entertaining real hike odds, not just a hold
● Meta and Microsoft report Wednesday, Apple and Amazon Thursday, giving the market its next real-time read on AI spending discipline
● Whether the AI capex worries that hit Alphabet spread further across tech
● Whether rising yields and trade tension keep pressuring stocks even as the labor market stays strong

Bottom line: A volatile week doesn't change the underlying picture. The economy is still humming, the labor market is arguably as healthy as it's been in decades, and the S&P 500 remains within striking distance of its June record. Our technical gauges remain where they've been all along, disciplined and fully invested.

07/06/2026

The Dow hit a record high last week. The chip stocks that got it there all year did not join the party.
Heading into the holiday week, the Dow climbed roughly 2% to a fresh record above 52,900, led by defense stocks and other names outside the AI trade. The S&P 500 slipped 0.21% and the Nasdaq fell 1.45% as semiconductors sold off hard. June’s jobs report also missed the mark: just 57,000 new jobs versus 114,000 expected, with the two prior months revised lower. On the bright side, factory orders came in solid, and the “average” stock is quietly having a great year — the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the index most people watch by over 300 basis points in June alone.
The real story was chips. A memory-chip-driven selloff in Korea spread here fast: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped nearly 12% over two sessions, with Micron down more than 15% and Applied Materials off 16%. Nvidia has slipped back from its brief $5 trillion peak to around $4.7 trillion. Add in reports that OpenAI may sell a stake to the government and Meta looking to rent out extra computing power, and investors started asking a fair question: has the AI buildout gotten ahead of itself?
What we’re watching:
• Semiconductors: healthy breather, or a crack in the AI story?
• A quiet data week: the market's next move may hinge on chip headlines, not the calendar
• Whether the broadening trade: small caps and the “average” stock leading: keeps its momentum
• Fed commentary after Chair Warsh's remarks that "prices are too high"
Bottom line:
A rough week for chip stocks isn't the same as a rough week for the market. Our technical gauges remain fully invested and unshaken... a rally that's finally widening beyond a handful of mega-cap names is a healthy sign, not a warning one.
Full Commentary:
https://www.sowellmanagement.com/commentary/has-passive-investing-become-a-victim-of-its-own-success/

Greg Lai, CFA explores what the SpaceX IPO may reveal about indexing, private markets, active investing, and the future of owning the market.

06/15/2026

Last week was a wild ride — and it ended on a high note.

After a rough finish to the prior week, markets came roaring back. The S&P 500 climbed to 7,431, the Nasdaq recovered to 25,889, and the Dow closed at 51,202. A lot happened along the way. Inflation data came in mixed — prices are still rising, but most of the pressure is coming from higher gas and energy costs, not a broad runup across everyday goods. That’s an important distinction. When energy is driving inflation, falling oil prices can turn the picture around quickly — and that’s exactly what happened when oil dropped below $85 a barrel on news of a potential Iran peace deal.

On the company side, Oracle and Adobe both reported strong earnings — and both saw their stocks fall anyway. Wall Street had set expectations so high that even great results weren’t enough. Meanwhile, SpaceX made history by going public at a $1.8 trillion valuation, the largest stock market debut ever. It closed its first day up nearly 20%, ending at $2.1 trillion in total value. For the first time, every company in the stock market’s top ten is now worth over a trillion dollars.

What we’re watching:

• The Federal Reserve meets June 16th–17th — no rate change is expected, but new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak publicly for the first time and his words will set the tone for markets
• Oil prices — if they stay low, that’s good news for inflation and could give the Fed more flexibility on interest rates
• SpaceX — whether the excitement around its debut carries over into the broader market

Bottom line:

At Bravern, we don’t react to the week’s noise — we follow the data. Our indicators came through last week’s volatility in good shape, and we remain fully invested with confidence in where the market is headed.

Full Commentary:
https://lnkd.in/gndUHtXF

05/28/2026

You can recover from a bad market year.
A bad tax strategy? That can quietly cost hundreds of thousands over retirement.

These are 7 of the biggest tax mistakes we see retirees and pre-retirees make far too often.

The good news: most are avoidable with proactive planning.

That’s why tax-aware retirement planning matters.

05/18/2026

Retirement isn’t just about building wealth. It’s about keeping more of what you built.

Most people focus on returns while overlooking the tax decisions that can quietly derail retirement income. If you’re in your 50s or nearing retirement, this is where planning matters most.

04/30/2026

I’ve seen two people with the same earnings history… walk away with very different Social Security checks. Here’s why.