NeonVision Capital

10/11/2026

AMERICA PRODUCES ENOUGH DIESEL TO KEEP OUR PRICES LOW. SO WHY ARE WE PAYING $6 A GALLON?

The United States produces millions of barrels of diesel every day….BUT exports roughly 1.5 million barrels daily to international markets.

Yet American truckers, farmers, construction companies, and consumers are getting hammered by diesel prices.

Here’s the disconnect.

American refiners can sell their products into global markets where diesel shortages are driving prices higher. Those international prices influence what Americans pay here at home.

Meanwhile, refining margins have surged, creating enormous profit opportunities for companies like Marathon Petroleum ($MPC), Valero ($VLO), and Phillips 66 ($PSX).

We’re exporting diesel while discussing importing more from Russia.

That deserves a serious economic conversation.

Could retaining more American-produced diesel lower domestic prices? Potentially. But the impact on refinery production, exports, and long-term supply needs to be considered.

America has the production capacity. The question is whether our energy policies are prioritizing affordable domestic fuel or access to the highest-paying global markets.

At NeonVision Capital, we’re following the supply, the refining margins, and the money.

NeonVision Capital | Market Intelligence

Disclosure: Long MPC.

09/17/2026

The $6 Diesel Trade

While everyone argues about who deserves the blame, the market is revealing where the money is actually flowing.

Today, the broad energy sector fell nearly 3%. Exxon dropped 3.5% and Occidental fell more than 6%. Meanwhile, refiners Valero and Marathon Petroleum finished higher.

Why? Crude oil declined, but diesel remains historically scarce. Asian diesel-refining margins have climbed above $87 per barrel—roughly four times their prewar level. That spread is potentially tremendous profit for companies capable of turning crude into diesel.

The takeaway: This isn’t simply an “oil goes up” trade anymore. It’s a refining-capacity and supply-chain trade.

NeonVision watchlist: MPC, PSX and VLO. Tankers such as STNG and DHT offer more speculative exposure.

This is a watchlist—not a chase list. A ceasefire or meaningful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could unwind the trade quickly.

Sources: EIA, Reuters and LSEG.

09/17/2026

Hot take: The biggest winners in AI may not be the companies with the best technology.

They may be the companies with access to the most reliable power.

Chips get the headlines. Electricity may decide the winners.

09/14/2026

Once you learn the vocabulary “bull trap,” “fair value gap,” “liquidity sweep,” your 3 triangles away from managing a hedge fund.

08/27/2026

Bitcoin doesn’t have to rally for the miners to rally anymore.

The market is repricing power, land & interconnection capacity.

What is a megawatt worth when everyone suddenly needs one?

$CLSK $IREN $CIFR $WULF $HUT $APLD $CORZ

08/22/2026

08/06/2026

A lot of people are asking us about headlines claiming AI or quantum computers will “crack Bitcoin.” That’s not what’s happening.

Today’s AI can’t break Bitcoin’s encryption. The real long-term concern is future quantum computers, and even those are still years away from posing a practical threat.

The good news? Bitcoin isn’t standing still. Developers are already researching and preparing quantum-resistant cryptography, and the network can be upgraded just like it has been in the past.

Markets may overreact to scary headlines, but the real question isn’t whether the technology is advancing—it’s whether Bitcoin has time to adapt. Right now, it appears it does.

08/06/2026

SpaceX used a staggered lock-up structure instead of the usual single 180-day cliff. The first big release hits tomorrow (Thursday, August 6): up to 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale. That’s roughly 20% of the early-release eligible pool, and it more than doubles the current public float (which started at only ~556–640 million shares after the June IPO). At recent prices, those shares represent something in the $100–115 billion range of potential supply.

07/16/2026

How do small firms hedge?

It’s having enough cash to buy when others have to sell.

It’s keeping a long enough time horizon that short-term volatility doesn’t force bad decisions.

That’s the kind of hedge every investor can understand.

07/14/2026

Power is the new bottleneck.