Performance Trading

Performance Trading Focused on risk management and reversal swing style trading.

Performance Trading is an educational-purposed only page dedicated to bringing you the best trade setups and teaching technical analysis the right way. 9 Years in the game

Reversal Swing Trade Trading High Time Frames - Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly and Daily

1.75 Sharpe Ratio
Max Drawdown for 2025 - 4.69%
Win Rate for 2025 - 65%-78% (Ranging)
Risk Management Focused - MAX RISK 5% per trade, Average is 2%-2.5%
Technical Analysis Trading w/ Some Fundamentals Mixed In.

$NIO - Daily / 3 Day
03/26/2026

$NIO - Daily / 3 Day

$NVAX - UpdateStill doing some experimenting with Fib time zones. Which are the vertical dotted lines with vertical boxe...
03/26/2026

$NVAX - Update

Still doing some experimenting with Fib time zones. Which are the vertical dotted lines with vertical boxes making up the fib time zone "marriages."

The horizontal boxes are the major support levels.

I'm studying the accuracy of those vertical time zones. They are supposed to give you somewhat of an idea of where major reversal could happen.

So im watching to see how price reacts when it meets those intersecting zones, ie, meets the vertical time zone and a major support zone and see what happens.

In the past, they have been very accurate.

So, these are just some directional ideas, probably wont follow any of these lol. It's impossible to know exactly what price is going to do, but, you CAN get somewhat of an educated idea that is based on probabilities.

Let's see what happens. The dates I am watching are..

March 31 - April 1
April 14 - 15
April 24
May 5
*Earnings - May 13 - Vertical purple line*
May 26
June 3
June 10 - 15

Daily chart.

High Time Frames on $NIO.M, 2M, Quarterly. Looking good af. Broken upper bands, bouncing off lower 2M. Let's see if we c...
03/14/2026

High Time Frames on $NIO.

M, 2M, Quarterly.

Looking good af.

Broken upper bands, bouncing off lower 2M. Let's see if we can push through this upper monthly band and close above by the end of the Month. 17 days left!

Very bullish trix on the quarterly.

25% move on $NIO for this week and a solid close. Will move stop to $4.34 on Monday, just a hair below the most recent c...
03/14/2026

25% move on $NIO for this week and a solid close. Will move stop to $4.34 on Monday, just a hair below the most recent consolidation/lows.

If we move up again next week, it's time to move it into profit.

I may add to this on pullbacks as well.

I got a really good entry, basically at the base of that consolidation on the 2M lower band and these 3 intersecting trend lines. It's also an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Hard level to break down through.

In at $4.87, first target is most recent highs at $7.98, then a full exit at $9.70.

$NVAX on the 45D (month and half) chart is my favorite.Broke that upper band for the first time way back in May of 2024,...
03/14/2026

$NVAX on the 45D (month and half) chart is my favorite.

Broke that upper band for the first time way back in May of 2024, then slowly pulled back and consolidated across the lower 45D Band and into the trend.

Then we popped and broke the upper 45D band again in January and closed solidly.

Now we are slowly puling back again from that ~$10.50 area that has been tested 6 times now.

Possibility that we COULD fall allllllll the way back to $7.50-ish from here, but that would be a first touch of the lower 45D band and another GOOD long entry point.

I will add once again if it comes back to my entry.

The next chart is the Daily, which is a LOT more complicated. There are technically 6, yes SIX levels of support BEFORE we even get to that lower 45D band, which it could reverse at ANY of these levels.

It's really tough to gauge. There are also 4 main trends that intersect those major zones.

So, we've managed to blow through a TON of a resistance and hold these levels over the last 3 months.

Quarterly candle closes in 17 days. Would love to see it push up and close above the upper 3M band past $10.86. If we managed to close below that, look for pullbacks into the beforementioned levels.

$SPY - Update - Some statistics from my Mentor, and I see the same thing here. I was about 1.5 years to 2 years early on...
03/13/2026

$SPY - Update - Some statistics from my Mentor, and I see the same thing here.

I was about 1.5 years to 2 years early on this, nut I think we're finally ready for a good correction.

He said..

"We have officially closed below December lows in the first quarter.
Of the nearly 40 years this has happened the average yearly return has been just 0.2% and only 50% of the time does the market close higher for the year.

This is certainly not a good look for the markets.

In the years we stay above the December lows in the first quarter the average return is 19% and ends the year higher 95% of the time— a dramatic difference."

Technicals - We reach a MASSIVE resistance and psychological level at $700 area. We peaked at $697.84 in late January. Current sitting at $666, 5% below the highs.

December lows came in at $669.22, our first quarterly candle for this year is BELOW that.

That red box contains a TON of bearish confluence. $700 Psyche level, multiple 1.27 and 1.61 Fib Pulls. Crazy how we hit it Perfectly.

Marked out at all the major lower high time frame bands. Starting with the 2 Month moving all the way down to the 12 month/yearly.

Also, another piece of confluence is that we tapped the upper trend channel for the 3rd time. Last time we tested that level was back in October of 2021, and before that, it started at the peak of the 2007/2008 Crash.

Major major trend channel.

A touch of the lower trend channel would put us back to $500, probably around Dec 2026 to March 2027 if were going by trend angle from the 2022 correction we got.

Personally, we are de-risking our larger, long term buy/hold port.

My mentor wants to start inching in starting at 10% correction, and DCA all the way down to a possible 40% correction.

My plan would to be to buy some at very lower high time frame band/major psyche level. I.E Price/Correction amount..

$650 - 7%
$600 - 15%
$550 - 20%
$500 - 30%
$425 - 40%.

Buckle up! There is opportunity amidst us. She is looking pretty weak here.

Is the Gold rush temporarily over? DXY wicked my lower zone, but cam right back into trend and is heading up to the Mont...
03/12/2026

Is the Gold rush temporarily over? DXY wicked my lower zone, but cam right back into trend and is heading up to the Monthly Coral back to $102 (Red Line.)

That COULD be a bottoming signal for gold to go long again if we get nice rejection there on the dollar.

If we break above that level however, Gold should continue to fall.
Gold and the Dollar are inversely correlated, but, it's not a 1:1 correlation.

Here lately, Gold has been chopping upwards at the same time the dollar has been rising.

Gold looks to be forming a nice bear flag here as well. Could definitely go back to all time highs and double top out, or to the most recent highs and double top there, or, we fall apart and break this uptrend finally. Just have to watch it.

Ill go for shorts at the 2 most recent highs, or, after we break down after this channel.

DXY Monthly, Gold Daily

3M, M, and 3W on NVAX.
03/11/2026

3M, M, and 3W on NVAX.

Simple Weekly NVAX chart. Testing $10.50 for the 6th time as of today. $10.50 has been a brick wall for $NVAX since Octo...
03/11/2026

Simple Weekly NVAX chart.

Testing $10.50 for the 6th time as of today. $10.50 has been a brick wall for $NVAX since October 2024.

Remember the rule. 4-7 Tests of S/R/Trends is when they usually break. The more tests, the higher likelihood it will break.

Weekly 200 SMA coming in right about $12.50 (pink line.) If we can get there and close, that'll be some further confirmation.

We are also coming into the 3W Coral at $11.25.

So the yellow box is a strong resistance zone between $11.25 and $12.50. Id like to see a close ABOVE the 3W Coral bare minimum. A better close would be above both the Weekly 200 SMA and 3W Coral.

HTF Charts incoming.

I JUST mentioned this on SATURDAY that we SHOULD get a nice wick to $115-$120 on Oil.NAILED IT. 🫵🥱🤷
03/09/2026

I JUST mentioned this on SATURDAY that we SHOULD get a nice wick to $115-$120 on Oil.

NAILED IT. 🫵🥱🤷

US Oil from a technical standpoint.Well, We got the big bounce that I was looking for lol. It just happened a littler ea...
03/08/2026

US Oil from a technical standpoint.

Well, We got the big bounce that I was looking for lol.

It just happened a littler earlier than expected at the $55 - $60 level instead of the $45-$50 level like I was expecting. (Pictured)

I HAVE been trying to get into oil longs, won a few, lost a few, but where I'm really pi**ed is, I tried to buy /$CL, full contract oil futures on Feb 26 at $64.50, completely forgot about it and it EXPLODED.

It left with out me...

I was going to buy a single contract. I would be up $28,000 right now. :( O well, maybe I'll catch a good short on it :)

Anyway, I have a target of $100-$115 on oil again, back to the main down trend from the top of the Ukraine conflict when oil hit about $135.

With the price action being so vertical and fast moving,. We should get a some NICE wicks up in that range and some pullbacks.

3M Zoomed Out, 3M Zoomed in, Monthly progression then the last chart is the Daily showing where I was going to buy. :-/

AGAIN, Technicals completely setting up and leading those fundamentals. Happens all the time. 🤷

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