05/08/2026
THIS WEEK'S NATIONAL NUMBERS
30-Year Fixed (Freddie Mac PMMS) = 6.37%
15-Year Fixed (Freddie Mac PMMS) = 5.72%
30-Year Fixed Last Week = 6.45%
30-Year Fixed One Year Ago = 6.76%
10-Year Treasury Yield = ~4.39%
Purchase Apps vs 1 year ago = +5%
Refi Share of Total Applications = 42.0%
ARM Share of Total Applications = 8.8%
Avg. Purchase Loan Size (MBA, record) = $467,300
New Home Sales -- March 2026 (SAAR) = 682,000 (+7.4% MoM)
Median New-Home Price -- March 2026 = $387,400 (lowest since Jul 2021)
Pending Sales (4-wk rolling avg, YoY) = +6.5%
Homes for Sale Inventory (YoY) = +1.8%
Key Takeaways:
• 30-year fixed averaged 6.37% this week (Freddie Mac PMMS, May 7) -- up from 6.30% last week, down from 6.76% a year ago
• Mortgage applications fell 4.4% WoW as rates hit a one-month high of 6.45% -- Middle East conflict keeps oil elevated and the Fed sidelined
• Average purchase loan size hit $467,300 -- the highest in MBA survey history (since 1990) -- as first-time and lower-income buyers pull back.
• New home sales surged to a 682,000 SAAR pace in March (+7.4% MoM); median new-home price fell to $387,400 - the lowest since July 2021
• Pending sales running +6.5% YoY on a four-week rolling average; Google 'homes for sale' searches up 20%+ YoY - demand is lurking beneath the surface.
What's Moving the Market?
The dominant force in the rate market this week remained the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With oil prices elevated and the Strait of Hormuz still in play, inflation expectations stayed sticky -- leaving the Federal Reserve in a holding pattern. The Fed held rates steady at its April 29 meeting in a decision marked by the highest level of internal dissent since 1992, and
markets are now beginning to price in the possibility of a rate hike rather than a cut later this year.
On the rate front, the 10-Year Treasury climbed to approximately 4.39% mid-week, pulling mortgage rates higher in lockstep. Freddie Mac's PMMS clocked the 30-year fixed at 6.37% -- up 7 basis points from the prior week -- while the MBA's survey
showed the 30-year touching 6.45% for the week ending May 1. Both measures still sit well below the 6.76% seen at this time last year, providing a year-over-year tailwind that remains meaningful for brokers positioning refinance conversations.
The MBA's weekly application data painted a familiar picture: elevated rates cool demand from the edges first. Total applications fell 4.4%, with refinance activity dropping 5% and hitting its lowest share since August 2025 at 42.0% of volume. The headline number that stopped people in their tracks was the average purchase loan size hitting $467,300 -- a 36-year
record. Joel Kan of the MBA framed it plainly: lower-income and entry-level buyers are the most hesitant to move given economic uncertainty and higher rates.
On the housing supply side, the picture is more encouraging. New home sales came in at a 682,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate for March -- up 7.4% month-over-month and 3.3% above last year. Critically, the median new-home price dropped to $387,400 -- the lowest since July 2021 -- as builders have responded to affordability pressure by right-sizing product and cutting prices. Pending home sales are running approximately 6.5% ahead of 2025 on a four-week rolling basis, and Google searches for 'homes for sale' are up more than 20% year-over-year. The demand signal is present -- it's the financing friction that's keeping buyers on the fence.
