05/11/2026
What to watch the week of May 11, 2026
The S&P 500 closed Friday at a record 7,399, capping six straight winning weeks โ the longest streak since 2024. As noted last week, April was the best month for stocks since 2020.
Six things worth knowing:
1. Tuesday's CPI Report โ The week's most important number. Headline inflation is expected to be 0.55% month-over-month (3.7% year-over-year), almost entirely driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict. Focus on core CPI (ex-food and energy), at 0.34% month-over-month (2.7% year-over-year). Energy-driven spikes tend to be temporary.
2. Jobs โ Already In, Better Than Expected โ April added 115,000 jobs, nearly double the 62,000 forecast. Unemployment held at 4.3%. This is what a soft landing looks like.
3. Trump's China Visit (May 13โ15) โ The first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly nine years. The agenda covers trade, Iran, AI, and critical minerals. Any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz could push oil lower and stocks higher.
4. Fed Leadership Transition โ Powell's term ends May 15. The Senate is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair this week. Warsh has signaled openness to eventual rate cuts. The 12-person FOMC committee structure means no single chair can unilaterally move policy, but there will definitely be political pressure!
5. Thursday's Retail Sales โ March came in at +1.7%, well above expectations. April's data will show whether consumers are still spending despite $4+ gasoline.
6. Earnings Season: Historic โ 84% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 estimates โ the highest rate since 2021. Wall Street projects full-year 2026 EPS growth of ~20%, with Goldman Sachs estimating AI investment alone driving 40% of that growth.
Markets are at record highs for a reason. Earnings are growing, consumers are resilient, and the AI investment cycle is just getting started. This week could be noisy. None of it changes the long-term thesis. Have a great week!
Sources: BLS, FactSet, CNBC, Kiplinger, Goldman Sachs, South China Morning Post, NPR, U.S. Census Bureau. Picture from whitehouse.gov
