01/04/2026
轉錄轉譯自Mark Minervini的X
好久沒看到Mark發這麼長的文章了，基本上都是他一直強調的。雖然他講的是美股，但我覺得很值得參考這些原則。
"重要的是市場能否持續上漲，以及領漲股是否會開始出現，以及適當的上漲形態是否會形成。"
"在市場回檔期間，你的任務很簡單：找出相對強度最高、價格走勢最集中的股票。當市場最終反彈時，這些股票將成為未來的領頭羊。"
"底部形成過程分為四個階段 超賣、反彈、回測、廣度推進"
"關注後續走勢的質量、領漲股的出現、市場內部結構與模型的健康狀況"
"保持客觀。讓市場自行證明。如果你要進行交易，請逐步進行。"
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今天的市場強勢表現堪稱教科書式。這正是市場在回檔時，被推至超賣水準後通常會有的表現。正如我前不久所說，「一些最大的反彈往往發生在熊市和回檔期間。」今天就是一個完美的例子。
伊朗總統暗示願意結束與美國的衝突的消息一出，交易員們便蜂擁而至。道瓊斯指數飆升1125點。但我們不能混淆因果關係。這則訊息或許是觸發因素，但市場早已具備反彈的條件。它處於超賣狀態，蓄勢待發。現在，紀律至關重要。
我們忽略反彈嘗試的最初幾天。那隻是潛在的噪音。重要的是市場能否持續上漲，以及領漲股是否會開始出現，以及適當的上漲形態是否會形成。
從技術面來看，這是一個典型的快速反彈：跌破200日均線的指數正在反彈回200日均線附近，而守住200日均線的指數則在從該均線反彈。在有相反證據之前，這屬於典型的逆勢行為。
預計波動性將持續高位。低風險的賺錢機會不多，但風險無疑也最大。在市場回檔期間，你的任務很簡單：找出相對強度最高、價格走勢最集中的股票。當市場最終反彈時，這些股票將成為未來的領頭羊。
宏觀方面，問題依然懸而未決。原油價格上漲仍是個問題。昨天的反彈並未對油價產生實質影響。更大的問題依然存在，目前尚無定論。目前的油價水準會加劇通膨，抑制經濟成長，並讓聯準會有理由繼續維持利率不變。在這種環境下，收益率將居高不下。
為了撥開迷霧，我選擇專注於市場本身。與政客、分析師、新聞媒體和所謂的「專家」相比，市場在揭示真相方面有著更可靠的記錄。
底部形成過程分為四個階段：
1. 超賣－普通回檔與超賣的差別始於價格，但遠不止於此。成交量不足且缺乏成交量確認的後續走勢表明市場處於單邊，這種市場不可信。
2. 反彈－市場不可避免地會從超賣狀態反彈。高品質的反彈是普惠性的。低品質的反彈則以空頭回補為主，主要由跌幅最大的股票推動。同樣，反彈的性質至關重要。目前，我們尚無足夠的數據做出可靠的判斷，因此耐心等待才是關鍵。
3. 回測－反彈之後幾乎總會有回測。主要股指會接近，甚至在某些情況下跌破超賣低點。成功回測的關鍵在於減少拋售壓力，例如低於移動平均線的股票數量減少、創造新低的股票、板塊和市場數量減少、總成交量減少以及下跌成交量減少。如果回測失敗，市場走勢將會逆轉，我們通常會在更低的低點尋找背離跡象。如果出現意外訊息，市場有可能以「V」字形反彈，而無需回測。在這種情況下，我們會關注市場廣度確認和參與。
4. 廣度推進－在最後階段，基準指數不僅會大幅上漲且回檔較少，而且會有極高比例的股票、板塊和市場參與其中，技術分析師稱之為廣度推進。在極少數情況下，市場會跳過第三階段。如果市場廣度夠強勁，則無需進行回測。新冠疫情後的底部就是一個強勁的V字形復甦的例子。
結論：
這是一波超賣反彈，由一些新聞事件引發，但並非由這些新聞事件決定，更不能說是可靠底部的確認。
現在我們關注：
--後續走勢的質量
--領漲股的出現
--市場內部結構與模型的健康狀況
如果反彈缺乏質量，如果經濟壓力不斷增加，或者如果領漲股開始走弱，那麼這很可能只是回調中的反彈。
保持客觀。讓市場自行證明。如果你要進行交易，請逐步進行。
Today’s market strength was textbook. This is exactly what markets do during corrections when they get stretched to oversold levels. As I said just recently, "some of the biggest rallies occur during bear markets and corrections." Today was a perfect example.
Traders rushed in after headlines hit that Iran’s president signaled a willingness to end the conflict with the U.S. The Dow exploded higher by 1,125 points. But let’s not confuse cause and effect. The news may have been the trigger, but the market was already set up for a rally. It was oversold and primed. Now comes the part where discipline matters.
We ignore the first few days of a rally attempt. That’s potential noise. What matters is whether the market can follow through and whether leadership begins to emerge and proper setups develop.
Technically, this is a classic snapback: Indexes that broke below the 200-day are rallying back toward it, while Indexes that held the 200-day are bouncing off it. That’s typical countertrend behavior until proven otherwise.
Expect volatility to remain elevated. That’s not where low-risk money is made, but it's certainly where the risk is. Your job during corrections is simple: identify the stocks showing the best relative strength and the tightest price action. Those are your future leaders when the market finally turns.
On the macro side, nothing has been resolved. Higher crude prices are still a problem. Yesterday’s rally did nothing to materially bring down oil. The bigger issue is still in play and the jury still out. Oil at these levels feeds inflation, pressures growth, and gives the Fed a reason to stay on hold longer. Yields stay elevated in that environment.
To cut through all the noise, I look to the market itself, which has a much better track record of telling us the truth than the politicians, the analysts, the news, and the gurus.
The four steps of the bottoming process are:
1. Oversold – The difference between an ordinary pullback and an oversold condition starts with price, but it does not end there. Poor breadth and and a lack of volume confirmed follow through describe a one-sided market, and one not to trust.
2. Rally – Inevitably, the market bounces from its oversold condition. A high-quality rally is broad-based. A low-quality rally is defined by short covering and driven primarily by the stocks that have declined the most. Again, the character of the rally is important to distinguish. So far, we simply don't have enough data to make a confident determination, so patience is the watch word while we wait.
3. Retest – After the rally, there is almost always a retest. The popular averages approach, and in some cases breach, their oversold lows. The key to a successful retest is less selling pressure, such as fewer stocks below their moving averages, fewer stocks, sectors, and markets making new lows, less total volume, and less downside volume. If the retest fails, the process reverts and we generally start looking for divergences during lower lows. In the event of unexpected news, it is possible for the market to recover in a "V" fashion with no retest. In that case, we look at breadth confirmation and participation.
4. Breadth thrusts – In the final phase, not only do benchmark indices rally sharply with few pullbacks, but they do so with an extremely high percentage of stocks, sectors, and markets participating, or what technical analysts call breadth thrusts. In rare cases, the market has skipped step 3. With strong enough breadth, retests are not necessary. The Covid bottom is an example of a pretty powerful V-shaped recovery.
Bottom line:
This was an oversold rally, sparked by headlines—but not defined by them, and certainly not confirmation of a reliable bottom.
Now we watch:
--Quality of follow-through
--Emergence of leadership
--Market internals and model health
If the rally lacks quality, if economic pressure builds, or if leading stocks begin to deteriorate, then this remains what it likely is—a rally within a correction.
Stay objective. Let the market prove itself. If you are going to trade, do so incrementally.
